re: Why is Earth’s surface warmer than its radiation-to-space temperature? (science board)

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. One small clarification: the NWS rain percentage really is a probability--the chance that a particular forecast point receives at least 0.01 inch during the stated period. Expected storm coverage helps inform that probability; 40% does not necessarily mean exactly 40% of the area will get rain. Your point about neighboring areas getting very different rainfall is right.

NWS definition and examples.

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How do you/they rationalize the observable universe and it's billions of a light years being in a black hole?

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Once you pass the event horizon that is the "big bang" and the universe expands infinitely beyond that point

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The hypothesis that our universe exists inside a black hole is known as black hole cosmology or Schwarzschild cosmology. In this model, our Big Bang was not an absolute beginning from nothing, but rather the birth of a new, expanding spacetime on the other side of an event horizon inside a larger parent universe.

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The theory is different from the classic idea that you must go to the singularity which is the end of time

Clouds?

What this OP needs is a summation in layman's terms.

The earth is warming at unprecedented historical speed due in large part to man made greenhouse gases which will eventually melt most of the surface ice on the planet, increasing sea level by 200+ feet and making weather patterns much more volatile and extreme, leading to more powerful storms, severe droughts in some areas while producing extreme flooding in other areas.

But, we don't have to worry about it, because at some point in the future the scientists, men and women much smarter than ourselves, will come up with solutions to contain and reduce these global emissions and save the day.

You expect the people on the OT to understand or care about this much less read it?

Yes, clouds are part of it. They reflect sunlight, which cools, and absorb and emit infrared, which contributes to the greenhouse effect. Their net effect depends on height, thickness and other properties; globally, their present-day cooling effect predominates.

The roughly 255 K calculation already uses Earth's reflectivity, including clouds. Explaining the warmer surface also requires accounting for infrared absorption and emission by clouds and greenhouse gases.

NASA: LINK

A plain-language version would help: sunlight brings energy in, Earth radiates energy out, and greenhouse gases affect how readily that outgoing energy escapes. The surface and atmosphere adjust in response.

I would qualify the rest. Roughly 230 feet is the hypothetical rise if all land ice melted, not a forecast for this century or an inevitable outcome of today's warming. The amount and timing depend on the warming pathway and ice-sheet response.

And there is no scientific guarantee that somebody will invent a rescue later. Technology and policy choices affect future emissions; they do not change the underlying physics.

All-ice hypothetical: LINK
Actual scenario-based projections: LINK