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Started By
Message
re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks
Posted on 7/6/21 at 9:57 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/6/21 at 9:57 pm to rds dc
I really don’t like when the HWRF is accurate. It proved to be pretty accurate a few times last year (on the bullish side) to the detriment of those in its path. At least it did it’s job and gave fair warning even if I was fearful of the warning it was giving.
1
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:00 pm to lsulaker
quote:
I really don’t like when the HWRF is accurate.
In this case, the HWRF goes the weak way.
The collapse of those storms proves fatal on the HWRF for Elsa, shear pushes the convection away and we have a naked swirl. Like this solution.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:04 pm to Duke
Looking back over run-to-run of the GFS and it has done very well. 00z on July 3 was the last time it had it below 999mb. That was after it blew it up to some extent. It has pretty much nailed the track for longer than that.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:15 pm to rds dc
LLC appears to be decoupled and is now moving NW in the low level flow.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:18 pm to rds dc
That's what I suspected.
Gotta love some good news.
Gotta love some good news.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:21 pm to rds dc
What does that mean in plain English?
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:22 pm to TigerBait1971
It fell apart.
The low level circulation and the mid level circulation are moving in different directions.
The low level circulation and the mid level circulation are moving in different directions.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:27 pm to Duke
quote:
Worked so hard to stack up and then sucks in some stability to ruin it.
For the best so near Tampa.
I have family in St. Pete right now. They're a little wet.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:31 pm to BluegrassBelle
quote:
I have family in St. Pete right now. They're a little wet.
Any word on surge levels in the area?
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:33 pm to rds dc
quote:
LLC appears to be decoupled and is now moving NW in the low level flow.
Shades of Marco
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:33 pm to BluegrassBelle
quote:Palmetto (other side of Skyway). Yes, we are wet.
I have family in St. Pete right now. They're a little wet.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:35 pm to Duke
quote:
naked swirl
Great name for a strip club
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:45 pm to Duke
Hot mess but torrential rain in the orange/red
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:46 pm to Cosmo
North Port, Fl checking in.
The lightning show has been amazing.
The lightning show has been amazing.
This post was edited on 7/6/21 at 10:47 pm
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:51 pm to stuntman
I’m 62 miles east of Tampa and it’s not even raining here.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:52 pm to rds dc
quote:
LLC appears to be decoupled and is now moving NW in the low level flow.
It realized that it was hitting Florida and needed to switch directions and head to Louisiana to pad the statistics.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 10:54 pm to NorthEndZone
That midlevel center is still coming NNE and it has all the rain and storms with it. Persistent southerly flow will bring em all the rain they could have wanted.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 11:21 pm to Duke
You could see it fall apart on radar starting right around when they upgraded it to a hurricane.
Posted on 7/6/21 at 11:25 pm to The Boat
Looking back at the radar you can see the outflow boundaries start rolling out about then. We know how much hurricanes love that dry and cold air flooding in.
Posted on 7/7/21 at 2:06 am to Duke
I am aboot 40 miles east. We had a little wind and a bunch of rain. It was enough to wake me up, but not too bad, once I got up and went outside.
I am wondering how Wolf and The Ocean did on wind.
I am wondering how Wolf and The Ocean did on wind.
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