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re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana

Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:58 pm to
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5944 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:58 pm to
You think that dry air is going to get wrapped up in system like nam and gfs are showing?
Posted by TheAstroTiger
Member since Jun 2018
3101 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:00 pm to
Is this storm still expected to make landfall tonight?
Posted by lsufan112001
sportsmans paradise
Member since Oct 2006
11102 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:04 pm to
Just had a gust of 81 per TWC
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53495 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:07 pm to
I saw that about the 81 gust in Matagorda.
Then he said, the same areas in Louisiana that got hit hard by Ida, will also get hit hard with with heavy rain by this storm.

Say His Name!

This post was edited on 9/13/21 at 9:10 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21059 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

You think that dry air is going to get wrapped up in system like nam and gfs are showing?


It's hard to argue with the GFS at this point. Both the GFS and Euro show pretty high PWAT air over Texas but drier continental air eventually works it's way towards the system from the west. Without a developed core there really isn't anything to keep the drier air out.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
176247 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:19 pm to
So no rain?
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129652 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:21 pm to
quote:

So no rain?


Oh it gon rain

Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
101513 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:23 pm to
So this thing is trending east
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:25 pm to
it isn’t quite ready to make landfall yet that’s for sure
Posted by schwartzy
New Orleans
Member since May 2014
9936 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:31 pm to
Lightning is starting to fire up. I think this thing may be trying to strengthen a bit. It’s also a very odd storm. Much of Texas is being spared of what the rain could be doing.
Posted by Pelican fan99
Lafayette, Louisiana
Member since Jun 2013
38937 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:34 pm to
I bet they bump this up to a hurricane just to pad the season stats
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100763 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:35 pm to
That HRRR model is like frick all of Louisiana
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10109 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:47 pm to
How fast we thinking the storm moves whenever it finally turns North? Any chance for a stall?
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
107569 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:48 pm to
Sustained winds picking up here. Steady 20ish and gusts over 30 in Sienna. Seems like a lot of power out along the coast. Probably a couple more hours here.
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10109 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

That HRRR model is like frick all of Louisiana


Dont like any of that
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:49 pm to
HRRR is calling for 16-20” along I-10 in SWLA. I would think I’d be seeing more about this is it were considered accurate?
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129652 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

HRRR is calling for 16-20” along I-10 in SWLA. I would think I’d be seeing more about this is it were considered accurate?


Perillo was pushing this hard

Then he later says expect 4-8”
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:50 pm to
I believe it’s been mentioned the HRRR struggles with forecasting rainfall
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
83786 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

Then he later says expect 4-8”



Depending on the temperature, of course.
Posted by tigerinthebueche
Member since Oct 2010
37781 posts
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:58 pm to
Damn you, Rob Perillo!!
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