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Started By
Message
re: Tropical Storm Nicholas - Flash Flood Watch for South Louisiana
Posted on 9/13/21 at 7:39 am to League Champs
Posted on 9/13/21 at 7:39 am to League Champs
Updated rainfall projections:
5
Posted on 9/13/21 at 7:50 am to udtiger
Well at least Houston looks like the west side of the storms impact. A nudge east would be great for me, but terrible for those in Western LA. Not going to wish a flood on anyone. Let’s hope this storm doesn’t pack a lot of rain with it so the effects are minimal for both paths. Stay safe, folks!
Posted on 9/13/21 at 7:55 am to Chicken
quote:
When is latest you would want to fly into Houston before this hits?
Chickens can't fly that far.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:04 am to supadave3
I'm in Pearland. Didn't flood in Harvey but a lot of road development behind the house has me concerned over drainage. Has been raining on and off since ~5am already. Schools closed today and probably tomorrow.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:12 am to rds dc
Last night's center consolidation on the northern end of the axis resulted in some potentially positive changes. That jump looks like it might be enough to allow this to get moved out before the ridge builds in. Models show this being far enough NE to prevent the stall over Texas. It soes increase the threat of heavy rain over Louisiana but totals aren't looking that bad at this time.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:20 am to rds dc
quote:
Last night's center consolidation on the northern end of the axis resulted in some potentially positive changes. That jump looks like it might be enough to allow this to get moved out before the ridge builds in. Models show this being far enough NE to prevent the stall over Texas. It soes increase the threat of heavy rain over Louisiana but totals aren't looking that bad at this time.
Forward movement has slowed to 5 mph in a NNW direction.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:42 am to udtiger
Looks like a sloppy shite stain on radar
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:44 am to Mr Sausage
You know how those calculations are done? Developers (mostly crooks, at least in EBR) get an engineer to certify that their little swimming pool sized detention ponds will contain the runoff from their new subdivision for a modest storm. The calculations assume that water is flowing out as fast as it’s flowing in. When the receiving stream is too full to accept that water, it, and everything upstream starts back flowing and floods areas that have never flooded. The entire Bayou Fountain/Bayou Manchac drainage basin is a great case study in this. A quick PE rubber stamp, some financial contributions to the right Metro Council members, maybe some payouts to “Planning” Commission members, and all developments get rolled right on through without opposition, never mind local opposition and evidence of existing drainage issues and flooding. Typical Louisiana politics, follow the money
Posted on 9/13/21 at 8:56 am to rds dc
Thanks for The encouraging report. We had a strong band this morning in E fort bend county. Some minor street issues but heavy stuff coming later. School out early today and canceled tomorrow.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:03 am to Tiger Ryno
im in W Fort bend Brookshire/Katy line
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:13 am to bnb9433
It's time for some Tabasco hand jobs! 
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:26 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Last night's center consolidation on the northern end of the axis resulted in some potentially positive changes. That jump looks like it might be enough to allow this to get moved out before the ridge builds in. Models show this being far enough NE to prevent the stall over Texas.
That’s good.
quote:
It soes increase the threat of heavy rain over Louisiana
Don’t like that!
quote:
It's time for some Tabasco hand jobs!
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:35 am to Suntiger
Hoping Nick keeps self-identifying as Tyrone and never gets it together.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:35 am to udtiger
6-10” of rain over 2 days is manageable particularly with rivers and coulees low right now
15-20” is where you get into trouble
15-20” is where you get into trouble
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:48 am to Cosmo
I hope Port Aransas survives. That place is beautiful.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 9:54 am to Tiger Ryno
You can see the dueling mid and low level centers on Brownsville radar. Pretty badass.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 10:01 am to udtiger
That map omitting Austin makes me
Posted on 9/13/21 at 10:14 am to Cosmo
quote:
6-10” of rain over 2 days is manageable particularly with rivers and coulees low right now
True. Mostly. Assuming the worst rainfall stays down in SE Harris County, Clear Creek and its tribs and Armand Bayou and its tribs in will get awfully full.
Plus, if that 6-10 inches falls in 6-8 hours, I also worry about Brays, Greens, and Halls.
Posted on 9/13/21 at 10:28 am to The Boat
quote:
You can see the dueling mid and low level centers on Brownsville radar. Pretty badass.
quote:
This post was edited on 9/13/21 at 10:29 am
Posted on 9/13/21 at 10:30 am to mightynine
Is this the disturbance that the GFS had rocking NOLA on 9/16 right after Ida effed our shite up?
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