re: Tropical Storm Isaias - O Canada!

Now it's obvious where the 'center' is...

Looks like it’s trying to wrap up to reach hurricane strength

Big blow up of convection on the east side of the center this afternoon.

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Big blow up of convection on the east side of the center this afternoon.

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One of those rare cases where a storm runs into Hispaniola and comes out better for it.

It was so big and sloppy the friction with the mountains actually help the organization and the interaction looks to have focused/reformed the center of circulation just to the north of the island.

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It was so big and sloppy the friction with the mountains actually help the organization and the interaction looks to have focused/reformed the center of circulation just to the north of the island.

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Levi was dead on the money about this last night

the center of circulation last night was so big it actually enveloped the whole island... so it didn't weaken since at all times part of the circulation was over water

the terrain help focus the center in that notch I mentioned earlier and that's where the center has emerged

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Big blow up of convection on the east side of the center this afternoon.

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It's still going. It might be a stationary convective band that is possibly being caused by wind coming around the newly forming center and crashing into the strong onshore flow. Isaias appears to be trying to close of a tight and much smaller circulation but the overall background circulation was huge and is pulling a lot of moisture with it.



These type bands can be either positive or negative for a storm that is trying to develop

Regardless, some torrential rain is falling over that small area.

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These type bands can be either positive or negative for a storm that is trying to develop

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That's a definite maybe.
Sounds like the weather forecasters around here predicting snow in January

New advisory:

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Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Isaias is beginning to form a small Central Dense Overcast, but much of the deep convection is situated over the eastern portion of the circulation. Water vapor imagery suggests that upper-level outflow is modest to the northwest of the cyclone. The southern
portion of the system is still interacting with Hispaniola at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 55 kt from TAFB so the current maximum wind speed is 50 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is headed for Isaias and should soon provide a more precise intensity estimate.

Although southwesterly shear may limit strengthening of the system during the next couple of days, the environment should still be conducive enough for Isaias to become hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
a little above the model consensus.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/16 kt. There are no basic changes to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous advisory. Isaias should continue to move generally northwestward on the southern and southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure area for the next day or so. Then, as an approaching mid-tropospheric trough erodes the high, a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and north should occur. In 3 to 5 days, the trough should cause Isaias to turn toward the north-northeast and northeast
and accelerate. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and follows the latest simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.

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don't see a defined eye any longer.

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I don’t think there has ever been a “defined eye.” The center of circulation just became more apparent today. The circulation/spin is still visible on the IR.