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1
Posted on 7/30/20 at 8:33 am to geauxtigers87
Starting to look like we're getting a center reform on the north side of the DR. Pressure at the tip (hehe) of the DR is lower than last recon mission recorded. Convection firing nicely along the northern end too.
Running over Hispaniola could well be helpful in focusing a center and murdering the southern end of the wave.
Running over Hispaniola could well be helpful in focusing a center and murdering the southern end of the wave.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 8:49 am to Duke
More northern storm center also makes OTS more likely
Posted on 7/30/20 at 8:54 am to Duke
It's a much larger than normal large-scale circulation. It seems like it almost has to reform the LLCC north of Hispaniola as it collides with land at the lower levels on the southern end.
This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 8:55 am
Posted on 7/30/20 at 9:01 am to Cosmo
quote:agreed. Also the stronger it gets the better the chances of a recurve. A path that brings a storm recurving out to sea well east of the coast is far more common and in fact much more typical path historically and climatologically. It requires an unusual set up to actually bring a storm into the East coast, especially Florida’s East coast. Obviously unusual set ups occur, hence all the East cost strikes over the years, but there are far more storms that miss than hit.
More northern storm center also makes OTS more likely
Posted on 7/30/20 at 9:31 am to otowntiger
How was no one made a Punta Cana joke yet when it's finally relevant 
Posted on 7/30/20 at 9:48 am to geauxtigers87
quote:check page 1
How was no one made a Punta Cana joke yet when it's finally relevant
Posted on 7/30/20 at 9:55 am to rds dc
Interesting model battle setting up as the Euro, UK & CMC take a weak system into Florida but the GFS keeps it offshore and weak. Then there are the HiRes hurricane models that keep it stronger and offshore. NHC seems to favor the US models and continues to adjust the track slightly east.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 10:01 am to rds dc
Well looking like nothingburger no matter the final track
Posted on 7/30/20 at 10:02 am to Cosmo
Hows JH this morning old sport? Cold enough for the north face or is it a patagonia type of day?
Posted on 7/30/20 at 10:05 am to S
Mid 50s now, lovely morning. Miguel is packing up the recently restored Defender to head out for a bit of fly fishing.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 10:10 am to Cosmo
quote:
Well looking like nothingburger no matter the final track
Track will mostly influence who gets rain unless some of the more extreme hurricane model solutions pan out, which seems unlikely given the overall pattern.
Beyond this system there is 93L but it doesn't appear to be a threat. Then we will probably see a couple of weeks with not much going on before things pick back up in mid-August.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 10:22 am to rds dc
Like I said before. To much land for this to go over for it to become even a hurricane... lots of rain though along it’s so called track.....
Posted on 7/30/20 at 11:07 am to rds dc
quote:
Track will mostly influence who gets rain unless some of the more extreme hurricane model solutions pan out, which seems unlikely given the overall pattern.
I could imagine an actual hurricane if a decently organized and not super tilted system (shear on approach gonna make that hard) turns north east of Florida. Shear drops enough and has time over water.
Otherwise, not much of a shot.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 11:14 am to Duke
More importantly, Punta Cana reporting a 60 mph gust.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 11:34 am to Duke
Look at water vapor satellite, sucking dry air in from west southwest.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 11:34 am to Duke
Some OTer’s carefully planned vacay is ruined
This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 11:34 am
Posted on 7/30/20 at 11:35 am to Cosmo
I've been saying this from the beginning.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:03 pm to Duke
quote:
I could imagine an actual hurricane if a decently organized and not super tilted system (shear on approach gonna make that hard) turns north east of Florida. Shear drops enough and has time over water.
Otherwise, not much of a shot
Yea, a track like the 12z GFS would probably get it done, far enough offshore to stay just ahead of the incoming trough. Maybe even some enhanced outflow for a period of time.
Posted on 7/30/20 at 12:17 pm to Duke
quote:
More importantly, Punta Cana reporting a 60 mph gust.
Thankfully my vacation home there is rated for up to 135mph gusts
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