- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
0
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:00 am to Dlab2013
That’s the westerly track I was expecting. Didn’t think it’d happen
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:00 am to LSUJuice
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:13 am to PorkSammich
So, is this thing going more west or what? 
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:36 am to fishfighter
Not really, gonna follow the coast by most models. Some show it briefly entering Fla.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:37 am to Dlab2013
2016 Matthew track
Looks like a hanger off the coast
Looks like a hanger off the coast
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:48 am to fishfighter
Shear is doing work on it this morning. Center is exposed to the west of the deeper convection. Probably back down to a TS at this point.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 9:08 am to Duke
Yeah looks like the center is coming out from underneath the convection.
This post was edited on 7/31/20 at 9:09 am
Posted on 7/31/20 at 9:11 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Not looking like a hurricane on IR
Posted on 7/31/20 at 9:27 am to Cosmo
One would think that 29 MPH on Mayaguana Bahamas would be higher if a hurricane
Posted on 7/31/20 at 9:30 am to CitizenK
And Matthewtown higher than 45 mph
Posted on 7/31/20 at 9:48 am to Duke
quote:
by Duke
Shear is doing work on it this morning. Center is exposed to the west of the deeper convection. Probably back down to a TS at this point.
Yes, it looks like it found a sweet spot last night and now the upper level trough is doing its job. It shouldn’t be able to strengthen again until it starts more N, or NNE and misses Florida to the East.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:00 am to Duke
quote:
Shear is doing work on it this morning. Center is exposed to the west of the deeper convection. Probably back down to a TS at this point.
There is a PVS across Florida and out into the Atlantic. The models have been thinning and lifting this just fast enough to allow for the system to stay organized and at times to strengthen. However, it looks to be holding on more than expected. This is a bit of a feedback mechanism with the outflow from a stronger storm increasing the PVS thinning but a weaker storm gets sheared by the PVS. It might be hard for this system to recover from the dry air intrusion given how small the circulation ended up being.
Also, as others have noted there was a big westward shift on the 06z ensembles as more members are now showing a weaker system.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:12 am to rds dc
quote:
The models have been thinning and lifting this just fast enough to allow for the system to stay organized and at times to strengthen. However, it looks to be holding on more than expected. This is a bit of a feedback mechanism with the outflow from a stronger storm increasing the PVS thinning but a weaker storm gets sheared by the PVS. It might be hard for this system to recover from the dry air intrusion given how small the circulation ended up being.
Yep. I think the game today is going to be how much convection it can fire upshear. Doubt it'll strengthen any but some good bursts SW of the center would at least maintain enough organization to be able to take advantage of better conditions in a couple of days.
Though I'd prefer it stay weak enough to run into Florida as a weaker TS vs making a run up the east coast where it could have a window to be something of significance for OBX and even farther up I95.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:13 am to rds dc
quote:
Also, as others have noted there was a big westward shift on the 06z ensembles as more members are now showing a weaker system.
So what that means as far as weather along the gulf coast, OB area? Been waiting on you to post.
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:19 am to fishfighter
quote:
So what that means as far as weather along the gulf coast, OB area?
Orange Beach or Outer Banks?
It would take a massive change in the entire weather setup for this to be a threat to the Orange Beach area of the Gulf Coast.
This post was edited on 7/31/20 at 10:22 am
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:36 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Pogues in OBX better start battening down the hatches
Posted on 7/31/20 at 10:57 am to Duke
Note that the 11AM EDT discussion shows that actual intensity at surface is 25kts per drop sonde. Yet the forecast is calling it 75MPH sustained winds.
The 25kts falling right in line with local airport weather stations. Matthewtown was at 28MPH and not forecast to be above 30
The 25kts falling right in line with local airport weather stations. Matthewtown was at 28MPH and not forecast to be above 30
Posted on 7/31/20 at 11:02 am to LaBR4
quote:Has Florida canceled the LSU game and figured out how it's all our fault yet?
2016 Matthew track
Looks like a hanger off the coast
Posted on 7/31/20 at 11:09 am to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
Has Florida canceled the LSU game and figured out how it's all our fault yet?
Florida really raped Alleva on PR spin on that deal. They had a whole week to decide and drug their feet while several neutral sites offered to host game
This post was edited on 7/31/20 at 11:10 am
Page 36 of 50
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News