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Started By
Message
re: Tropical Storm Debby - Flooding Threat Slowly Shifting NE
Posted on 7/26/24 at 9:28 pm to deltaland
Posted on 7/26/24 at 9:28 pm to deltaland
quote:
I have a bunch of 150kw generators on the farm if we ever have extended power outage I’ll just go hook up to one and drag it to the house.
The neighbors will love the straight pipe exhaust and black smoke all night from a 1980s Onan with allis chalmers engine
Those are crazy! When I was researching mine, I looked at those monsters just to see them in person. There are some bad arse generators in that space. I went with the 30kw Kohler because it's liquid cooled and it wasn't that much more than their 26kw which is air cooled. I hope I made the right decision, this shite is expensive.
0
Posted on 7/26/24 at 10:07 pm to Mr Clean
She’s not bad, but I’ll take Jen Carfagno….
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:45 pm to dukke v
Worsened trend on tonights model runs....GFS and Canadian
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:47 pm to lsugolfredman
Be interesting to see what the Euro does tonight
Posted on 7/27/24 at 12:13 am to lsugolfredman
Still way early, but this season seems like it's gonna be shite. If Beryl was a prequel, I don't want to see the main event for the Gulf Coast.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 12:17 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
I’m looking for some insight on what the Euro and GFS are showing. I know it’s early but we are leaving on a Carnival Cruise on Sunday. It’s a 7 day cruise. So we leave the 28th and return the 4th. Does anyone know what the ships will do? How that works. We go to Belize Honduras and Cozumel. So I wasn’t sure the timing and looks of this for the Caribbean. Any advice or what we should prepare for would be appreciated. This is our very first cruise.
Stolen from another board.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 12:20 am to Mr Roboto
That’s incredible 
Posted on 7/27/24 at 12:23 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
I do not miss having to watch out for this shite.
As am I. But my parents, most siblings, and the vast majority of my extended family are still there.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 12:26 am to dukke v
quote:
She’s not bad, but I’ll take Jen Carfagno….
Posted on 7/27/24 at 12:55 am to rds dc
Our 15 minute, summertime, torrential downpours have been significant this year. If we get a storm that lingers, flooding will be a mess.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 6:12 am to BPTiger
quote:
As am I. But my parents, most siblings, and the vast majority of my extended family are still there.
Exactly this. Still nerve wracking every season for me even if I’m no longer in the direct path
Posted on 7/27/24 at 6:49 am to lsugolfredman
quote:
There it is the classic shifting between Texas, Mississippi River, Florida, and then it’s gone.
Always take a computer model with a grain of salt. My rule on models is the rule of 10. For each day out subtract 10% accuracy.
1 day out= 90% accuracy
2 days out = 80% accuracy
3 days out = 70% accuracy
…
8 days out = 20% accuracy
9 days out = 10% accuracy
10 days out = 0% accuracy
Posted on 7/27/24 at 7:10 am to Tarps99
I would agree, but start you figured at day 4.
Most of the time for 1-3 days, they have it pretty well figured out.
But yeah, for one this far out, it’s like shaking an 8 ball and hoping for a good guess.
Most of the time for 1-3 days, they have it pretty well figured out.
But yeah, for one this far out, it’s like shaking an 8 ball and hoping for a good guess.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 8:03 am to notiger1997
I'd prefer this magic 8 ball not be right. 186 hours is next saturday, coming up quick
Posted on 7/27/24 at 9:26 am to deltaland
quote:
I have a bunch of 150kw generators on the farm if we ever have extended power outage I’ll just go hook up to one and drag it to the house.
The neighbors will love the straight pipe exhaust and black smoke all night from a 1980s Onan with allis chalmers engine
This comment s similar to the SR71 blackbird air speed video. Delta is the top dog.
Everyone else talking about their 5500, or 30kw, then here comes the man with a 150kw.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 11:22 am to Duke
quote:
Im still thinking we need a sacrificial wave or two to clean up some of that lingering dryness.
NHC has two waves marked on the TSA, and it does look like models either merge the two or favor the 2nd wave for development. This wave has a very healthy H7 vort (usually a better indication of future development than the 850 vort). You can see the 2nd H7 over take he first one in a few days.
That merger process will open the door for dry air infiltration. After that, add in above avg SSTs, forecasted low shear, and improving background state, and the only thing to hold this back would be land interaction.
However, the 00z Euro drops in a summer cool front that would easily sweep this potential system up.
Things to watch in the coming days: Does the merger process allow dry air into the core of the developing system, how much land interaction occurs in the islands, does the Euro cool front actually come true? My biggest concern would be the wave staying weak longer via dry air or land interaction and getting into the Gulf.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 11:37 am to rds dc
12z GFS comes back around to reality. It has the Leewards taking it apart and develops nothing from it afterward.
GFS maybe seeing a front, too, with the steady eastward swing of the system in recent runs. Either way......she gone for now.
GFS maybe seeing a front, too, with the steady eastward swing of the system in recent runs. Either way......she gone for now.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 11:48 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Either way......she gone for now.
Models show a potentially complicated genesis pathway, with the potential for dry air and land interaction to keep this one off the board.
Canadian has other thoughts
Posted on 7/27/24 at 11:51 am to Tarps99
quote:
There it is the classic shifting between Texas, Mississippi River, Florida, and then it’s gone.
Well this guy nailed it
At least as far as gfs. We don't have to talk about Canadian
This post was edited on 7/27/24 at 11:52 am
Posted on 7/27/24 at 11:53 am to rds dc
quote:
Canadian has other thoughts
You can't trust the Canucks. Never, ever trust the Canucks.
I don't know about the weather model. Just don't trust the Canadians.
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