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re: Tornado! Threat Continues Overnight then Shifts East Tomorrow

Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:32 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:32 pm to
Small cell to the east of Woodville, TX mostly by itself. Worth monitoring.
Posted by Woopigsooie20
FREE HRV
Member since Mar 2010
60407 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:34 pm to
Just noticed that one. Definitely in supercell development.
Posted by DavidTheGnome
Monroe
Member since Apr 2015
31530 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:38 pm to
Where do y'all go to watch this? What's your go to site?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:39 pm to
Cell just north of Oberlin is starting to pick up some inflow on the velocity maps.

Posted by Scoop
RIP Scoop
Member since Sep 2005
44583 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:40 pm to
Cells south of Alexandria and starting to crowd each other. Looks like they are gonna merge.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147132 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:40 pm to
just got a "special weather statement" alert on my phone for the cell I assume just south of Alexandria... guessing that 1 is headed my way
Posted by Scoop
RIP Scoop
Member since Sep 2005
44583 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:42 pm to
Warning south of Shreveport dropped.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:44 pm to
quote:

Where do y'all go to watch this? What's your go to site?


RadarScope tends to be the most popular choice, namely for the relative velocity maps.

If you want to get something for free, you can use NEXRAD from WUnderground or the NWS radar loops. Go back and forth between reflectivity and storm relative velocity while tracking storms to get an idea.
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
102330 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:45 pm to
quote:

Warning south of Shreveport dropped.




From tornado warned to non-severe. That got killed in a hurry.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51716 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:46 pm to
I'm just wondering if there is too much cluttering of the convection to allow discrete supercells to really produce strong, long track tornadoes.
Posted by Scoop
RIP Scoop
Member since Sep 2005
44583 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:47 pm to
Yeah. So far nothing stout has held past I-20. That's where everything has fallen apart all day.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:48 pm to
quote:

Cells south of Alexandria and starting to crowd each other. Looks like they are gonna merge.




That area west to east has quite a few storms popping off. This cell between Newton, TX and De Ridder, LA blew up in 9 minutes:

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:55 pm to


quote:

Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern LA...central/western
MS...southern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021749Z - 021945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will gradually increase east of ongoing
Tornado Watch 109. While not presently likely, these areas will
continue to be monitored for possible watch issuance through
mid-afternoon. The severe risk and watch probabilities will increase
later in the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Positive theta-e advection in association with a
northward-advancing warm front analyzed from west-central LA to
southern LA continues fostering convective development over
south-central LA. This activity is blossoming over the northern
extent of an uncapped, very moist boundary layer supporting
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Lake Charles radar imagery indicates many
cells already exhibiting supercellular characteristics, and this
activity may continue developing northward across areas east of
Tornado Watch 109. Stronger deep ascent remains displaced to the
west of the area, and overall confidence in a more widespread severe
risk is limited in the short term. Nevertheless, with 35-50 kt of
effective shear supporting organized convective structures and
effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2 building northward, the conditional
risk for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes may exist through
mid-afternoon. By later in the afternoon, as stronger deep ascent
arrives, unconditional severe-thunderstorm and tornado probabilities
will increase.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147132 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:56 pm to
would basically be an extension of the last watch box
Posted by GeorgeTheGreek
Sparta, Greece
Member since Mar 2008
69188 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 12:57 pm to
Are we looking at a Tornado Outbreak type of day or just a day where one or two is possible?
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15761 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 1:00 pm to
anyone know what the "SIG SEVERE" area means?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 1:02 pm to
We might see a warning with this rotation coming out of Gary City, TX. It's part of a squall line though...

Posted by Woopigsooie20
FREE HRV
Member since Mar 2010
60407 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

I'm just wondering if there is too much cluttering of the convection to allow discrete supercells to really produce strong, long track tornadoes


Way too early to tell, but if I had to guess, we'll see probably 3 or 4 dominate supercells take over later this afternoon.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147132 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... Northwestern De Soto Parish in northwestern Louisiana... Southwestern Caddo Parish in northwestern Louisiana... Southeastern Harrison County in northeastern Texas... Central Panola County in northeastern Texas...
* Until 145 PM CDT
* At 102 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Carthage, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD... Tornado. SOURCE... Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT... Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near... Deberry around 120 PM CDT. Greenwood around 140 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Midyett, Keithville, Deadwood, Front, Spring Ridge, Woods, Cross Lake, Gary City, Forbing and Keachi. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21539 posts
Posted on 4/2/17 at 1:07 pm to
Storms in CenLa are growing up scale into clusters, probably limiting the long track violent tornado threat with those. The next wave to watch will be the cell firing off in the Gulf about to move onshore.

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