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Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:40 am to iamAG
But yea, you don't math good.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:40 am to iamAG
quote:
you would have a 94.7% probability to at least win your money back.
No, it doesn't work that way.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:47 am to iamAG
Hard to know whether OP wants input or encouragement. Either way, he should know that roulette is a sucker's game with some of the worst odds in the casino. And remember, whatever you think you know about the games, the casino knows more. Oh, and lots of other gamblers have tried the same thing and lost.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:49 am to Fe_Mike
quote:
His probability is based on the assumption that every number can hit only once.
That's exactly why I said his math was wrong. His premise is correct, he just used an incorrect assumption which led to the 95% instead of the actual correct probability, which, as stated is somewhere around 60%.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:51 am to iamAG
quote:
With each spin that does not hit the number you choose, the “probability” that the number you selected hits will go up. This is what probability is.
Nope. You obviously do not know what the word unique means. Every single spin is its own game. One spin is not related to another in any way. Its just like the lottery. Each drawing is completely independent from another. Your probability does not increase the more you play.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:54 am to iamAG
quote:
you would have a 94.7% probability to at least win your money back
Wrong - your odds are the same on every spin bro 1/38.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:54 am to iamAG
Odds are 1/38 of hitting your number each time. Each spin is independent. I doubt the numbers hit are close to evenly distributed.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:55 am to shawnlsu
quote:
Your probability does not increase the more you play.
Uh, be careful here. Your wording is too vague. On seperate drawings, you are correct. If buying more tickets on the same drawing, I'd disagree.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:56 am to iamAG
frick this. take that 180 and go find you a poppin dice table and roll them bones baw... at least you'll have a good time while you lose your money...
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:57 am to iamAG
quote:
If you played $5 on the same number for 36 times($180/5=36 hands you can play) you would have a 94.7% probability to at least win your money back. This obviously would mean that you would win more the “sooner” the number hit. Earlier would be more winnings and later would be less, but the probability that you’ll actually lose money would be only 5.3 probability.
Studied separately, each and every spin is an independent physical event. Studied as a group, they are statistically related...but it may take tens of thousands of spins for the numbers to balance out. So, if you bet on the wheel constantly over a 10 year period...the numbers should play out statistically...you probably aren't going to be there that long. The previous spin has no physical effect on the ball's trajectory...however, since every spot has an even chance...eventually each one should have approximately the same number of hits.
Now...this is what totally ruins your theory. Variability...the ball won't have the exact same trajectory every time. Introduction of variability into the system can present system bias and can really screw up the statistical model.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 12:00 pm to LCA131
quote:
On seperate drawings
Which is what I meant. Guess I thought that was a given due to the context of the thread, but you are correct.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 12:01 pm to iamAG
quote:
If you played $5 on the same number for 36 times($180/5=36 hands you can play) you would have a 94.7% probability to at least win your money back
No.
You could have $100k and put $5 on the same number and after 20k spins it not land on that number because on each spin each number has the same odds. It's like flipping a coin. If you flip and it lands on tails, on the next flip the odds of it being heads doesn't go up.. It's always 50/50.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 12:05 pm to iamAG
quote:
If you played $5 on the same number for 36 times($180/5=36 hands you can play) you would have a 94.7% probability to at least win your money back
Yeah, this isn't correct at all.
Your 94.7% chance of hitting your number in 38 opportunities is assuming that all previous numbers are eliminated as they hit.
Your odds NEVER go up in roulette.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 12:07 pm to iamAG
You cracked the code dumbfrick
Posted on 6/13/18 at 12:08 pm to iamAG
quote:
With each spin that does not hit the number you choose, the “probability” that the number you selected hits will go up
Your right dude, don't listen to these other tards.
Pro Tip: If you look around you will see a screen that shows you the results of the previous spins. Go ahead and factor in those numbers when placing your bet to improve your odds even more!
Posted on 6/13/18 at 12:11 pm to iamAG
quote:
That’s what I’m asking. Tell me how the probability is wrong.
To find the probability of something you take the one (or more) events happening and divide it by the number of possible outcomes.
The most simplistic example is flipping a quarter. You have one quarter that can land one of two ways 1/2= 50%.
Nothing that happened in the past plays a factor on the next flip. If you flip a coin 10 times, that doesn't mean it will land on heads 5 times and tails 5 times. In fact, you can flip a coin 10 times and it land on heads all 10 times.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 12:27 pm to OweO
quote:
Not true when talking about probability of one number hitting. Over time when one number does not hit, the likelihood of that number hitting goes up
What OP is incorrectly trying to rely on and what others are trying to communicate are two separate issue.
There is a numerical THEORY that as you approach INFINITY the odds should be just that...the odds.
So if you flip a coin a trillion billion times, the split should be very close to 50/50.
If you play roulette a trillion billion times, the number of times you hit 7 should be very close to 1 in 38.
OP is confused on this theory that he probably heard in the 3rd grade and forgot that the key fact is that the number of occurrences is not set, it's a theoretical maximum of spins.
This post was edited on 6/13/18 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 6/13/18 at 12:32 pm to iamAG
There is just as much an opportunity as 1 hitting 100 times in a row as your number hitting once.
Best way to gamble is to be consistent and know the rules.
Best way to gamble is to be consistent and know the rules.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 12:33 pm to OweO
If I play I will bet either on sets of 12 or colors.
Although not the smartest it works a good bit of the time, betting 1st and 2nd 12. You will only clear half of what you bet. You end up covering 24 numbers with 14 (including greens) to bust you. Again, not the smartest play, but makes for fun entertainment. I've done good a few times and done bad a few times. Entertainment is the idea.
EX. If you bet $5 on two sets of 12 and win, you get $15 but lose $5. So in essence you are betting $10 to clear $5.
Although not the smartest it works a good bit of the time, betting 1st and 2nd 12. You will only clear half of what you bet. You end up covering 24 numbers with 14 (including greens) to bust you. Again, not the smartest play, but makes for fun entertainment. I've done good a few times and done bad a few times. Entertainment is the idea.
EX. If you bet $5 on two sets of 12 and win, you get $15 but lose $5. So in essence you are betting $10 to clear $5.
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