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re: Tell me if my thoughts on roulette are incorrect
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:11 am to iamAG
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:11 am to iamAG
quote:
If you played $5 on the same number for 36 times($180/5=36 hands you can play) you would have a 94.7% probability to at least win your money back.
This is wrong. Your math is describing a scenario where once a number is hit, it can’t be hit again. This isn’t true.
1
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:13 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
The odds of one roll hitting any number are the exact same regardless of all of the prior rolls. There is a reason they have that little sign up there with the previous 10 rolls.
The most useless piece of equipment in the casino.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:13 am to DeathValley85
quote:Can someone update the actual probability of hitting your number at least once if you played 36 times?
This is wrong. Your math is describing a scenario where once a number is hit, it can’t be hit again. This isn’t true.
Not sure how to do that.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:14 am to Bagger Joe
quote:Based on the OP, it seems pretty useful...for casinos.
The most useless piece of equipment in the casino.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:14 am to Brummy
quote:
Every mathematician in the world disagrees with you.
If people understood math casinos would not exist.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:17 am to shel311
1-((35/36)^36) = 63.7%
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:17 am to iamAG
Important fact about roulette probabilities.
The results of the next spin are never influenced by the results of previous spins.
Example.
The probability of the result being red on one spin of the wheel is 48.6%. That's easy enough.
Now, what if I told you that over the last 10 spins, the result had been black each time. What do you think the probability of the result being red on the next spin would be? Higher than 48.6%?
Wrong. The probability would be exactly 48.6% again.
Why?
The roulette wheel doesn't think "I've only delivered black results over the last 10 spins, I better increase the probability of the next result being red to even things up". Unfortunately, roulette wheels are not that thoughtful.
If you had just sat down at the roulette table and didn't know that the last 10 spins were black, you wouldn't have a hard time agreeing that the probability of seeing a red on the next spin is 48.6%. Yet if you are aware of recent results, you're tempted to let it affect your judgment.
Each and every result is independent of the last, so don't expect the results of future spins to be affected by the results you've seen over previous spins. If you can learn to appreciate this fact, you will save yourself from some disappointment (and frustration) in the future.
Believing that a certain result is "due" because of past results is known as the gambler's fallacy.
There is a 2.7% chance a number hits on every independent spin.
https://www.roulettestar.com/probability.php
The results of the next spin are never influenced by the results of previous spins.
Example.
The probability of the result being red on one spin of the wheel is 48.6%. That's easy enough.
Now, what if I told you that over the last 10 spins, the result had been black each time. What do you think the probability of the result being red on the next spin would be? Higher than 48.6%?
Wrong. The probability would be exactly 48.6% again.
Why?
The roulette wheel doesn't think "I've only delivered black results over the last 10 spins, I better increase the probability of the next result being red to even things up". Unfortunately, roulette wheels are not that thoughtful.
If you had just sat down at the roulette table and didn't know that the last 10 spins were black, you wouldn't have a hard time agreeing that the probability of seeing a red on the next spin is 48.6%. Yet if you are aware of recent results, you're tempted to let it affect your judgment.
Each and every result is independent of the last, so don't expect the results of future spins to be affected by the results you've seen over previous spins. If you can learn to appreciate this fact, you will save yourself from some disappointment (and frustration) in the future.
Believing that a certain result is "due" because of past results is known as the gambler's fallacy.
There is a 2.7% chance a number hits on every independent spin.
https://www.roulettestar.com/probability.php
This post was edited on 6/13/18 at 11:19 am
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:22 am to diat150
quote:
if black hits 10 times in a row, what is the probability that it will hit an 11th time in a row?
The probability that black hits 11 times in a row before the spins is something like .05% or something.
The probability that black hits 11 times in a row, after the 10th hit, is 47%.
You can't look at the odds in hindsight, it is only the present spin that matters.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:24 am to LSUJuice
quote:Thanks
1-((35/36)^36) = 63.7%
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:25 am to tigersnipen
quote:
Why?
The roulette wheel doesn't think "I've only delivered black results over the last 10 spins, I better increase the probability of the next result being red to even things up". Unfortunately, roulette wheels are not that thoughtful
Things used to be nicer in our society. Back in the olden days.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:25 am to LSUJuice
quote:
Probability of a given number occurring in 38 spins is:
1 - ((37/38)^38) or 63.7%
I believe this is correct, except he wanted the probability of hitting at least once in 36 spins, so
1 - ((37/38)^36) = 61.7 %
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:26 am to tigersnipen
He's actually right, but his math is wrong. LSU Juice posted the correct probability of the situation the OP described.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:28 am to Fe_Mike
quote:
The probability that black hits 11 times in a row before the spins is something like .05% or something.
The probability that black hits 11 times in a row, after the 10th hit, is 47%.
You can't look at the odds in hindsight, it is only the present spin that matters.
if you state it that way yes. regardless, if black has hit 10 times in a row red is likely not that far off.
the record for consecutive colors is 32. the odds of that happening are 24,230,084,485:1.
The record for the same number is 6 times. odds of that happening are 3,010,936,384:1.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:29 am to shel311
quote:
Not sure how to do that.
The math is easier when you think of it as the probability of never hitting your number. Then just subtract that number from 1
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:29 am to diat150
quote:It's no more "far off" then if red had hit 10 times in a row.
if you state it that way yes. regardless, if black has hit 10 times in a row red is likely not that far off.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:31 am to Not Cooper
Yeah I think I mixed up the 36 and the 38, but the percentage still comes out in the low 60s.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:31 am to iamAG
The casino never loses. Never. You can even think you leave a winner and they know they have you.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:32 am to Not Cooper
His probability is based on the assumption that every number can hit only once.
So his 95% is based on 38 numbers. 36 spins. Only 2 numbers on the board won't be hit in those 38 spins.
Which is just freaking ludicrous.
His odds would be more applicable if he were to say that he is going to bet on 34 different numbers for one spin.
So his 95% is based on 38 numbers. 36 spins. Only 2 numbers on the board won't be hit in those 38 spins.
Which is just freaking ludicrous.
His odds would be more applicable if he were to say that he is going to bet on 34 different numbers for one spin.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:34 am to iamAG
quote:
If you played $5 on the same number for 36 times($180/5=36 hands you can play) you would have a 94.7% probability to at least win your money back
Playing different numbers doesn't change your probability of winning in 36 spins.
Posted on 6/13/18 at 11:36 am to iamAG
quote:
f you played $5 on the same number for 36 times($180/5=36 hands you can play) you would have a 94.7% probability to at least win your money back.
You're gonna have to explain this theory in more detail. Must be some new statistical law.
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