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Started By
Message
re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:23 pm to Hulkklogan
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:23 pm to Hulkklogan
quote:
For the Baton Rouge metro area: Expect winds >110mph sustained.
Wat
That's not at all what any of us have seen from any sources. I'd be getting the F out if I thought this was true.
Caparotta on wafb said worst case scenario for BR is 90 mph gusts.
2
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:23 pm to rocket31
quote:
noaa says Less than 50 mph sustained for br/nola fwiw
That’s what I was seeing for BR on WVLA BR. I think it’ll be somewhere in between doomsday 110 MPH winds and 47. Probably somewhere between 55-65 sustained and gusts of 80-90 maybe
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:23 pm to deltaland
quote:
Learns military strategy for New Orleans to defeat Baton Rouge in a hypothetical war
When this war happens, you'll rake it in. Contact your bookie.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:23 pm to The Boat
quote:
KBTR had a gust of 91 for Gustav. I'd be very surprised if Baton Rouge didn't have 100 mph gusts. And that's north at the airport. In the southern part of BR and in Ascension
I learned something just a little while ago and I wanted to share with the OT.
If they start getting hurricane strength winds north of BR then the River Bend power plant shuts down it’s reactor. Highly likely the NOLA reactor will/would be shut down as well. So while power is distributed along the grid, both major the metropolitan areas and for that matter all of SE LA will be needing to draw in outside power.
And now you know. :)
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:24 pm to Jake88
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:24 pm to Jake88
quote:
Those winds and gusts estimated for Madisonville and Covington seem really low. If they know this storm is moving east, why wait so long to give that track. As it is now the track is west of BR, but we know it is going to cross the east side of BR or even east of Denham. Why are they waiting? Thw storm has consistently been to the NE of the forecast track.
Don't think this is right ... Recon just put the eye 8 miles sw of the nhc projection i thought I read
This post was edited on 8/28/21 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:24 pm to rocket31
right on the money brotha.
---------------------------------------------
This Afternoon
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 15 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Tropical storm conditions possible, with hurricane conditions also possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 83. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.
Sunday NightTropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Monday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 85. Windy, with a south wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1am and 4am, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 77. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
NWS (70005 zip used)
---------------------------------------------
This Afternoon
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind around 15 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
Tropical storm conditions possible, with hurricane conditions also possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Sunday
Tropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 83. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.
Sunday NightTropical storm conditions expected, with hurricane conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Monday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 85. Windy, with a south wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1am and 4am, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 4am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 77. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
NWS (70005 zip used)
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:24 pm to GusMcRae
quote:
The best case scenario, is this thing goes straight up the Basin, like Andrew did in '92. The Basin can absorb all the energy, and hopefully significantly weakened by the time it hits BR/CenLa.
Andrew was small enough to mostly miss Baton Rouge and New Orleans. It had a narrow band of powerful winds that stayed hurricane force even up through New Roads, but left Baton Rouge and Lafayette with fairly minor damage.
Ida has a wider band of powerful winds than Andrew. If Ida followed the Andrew track, it would actually put the river parishes and New Orleans/Baton Rouge at much higher risk than Andrew did.
I think it tracks a bit east of that though. Potentially even putting Baton Rouge on the western side of the storm with just 50 or so mph winds. New Orleans and the north shore may be on the immediate east side with higher winds and more rain. But I’ve been wrong about this before.
This post was edited on 8/28/21 at 5:27 pm
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:24 pm to thadcastle
quote:I'm sure she'll be just fine.
How well will latoya handle this hurricane?
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:24 pm to The Pirate King
Baton Rouge vs New Orleans right now on if it shift East or not
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:25 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:25 pm to dewster
So there’s no way it gets steered west to the basin right?
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:26 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Looks like us LP bawws are in for a ride on this one.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:26 pm to LSUSoulja08
quote:
that is coming from the national weather service? I cannot figure out a reason not to trust them but also don't understand the big discrepancy between them and NOAA
That's how I feel. This is the Graphic they posted with it, which I've seen before
LINK but I thought that was like "hey.. this is not out of the realm of possibility but not likely" so it's surprising to me to see NWS use it in such decided terms.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:28 pm to Jake88
quote:
Those winds and gusts estimated for Madisonville and Covington seem really low. If they know this storm is moving east, why wait so long to give that track.
Yeah in Mandeville it said 45mph sustained with gusts hitting 60mph.
That, paired with a few people saying the eastward jog may be getting overhyped, leads me to believe that it's still on track for a big hit to BR with NOLA and everything east of Baton Rouge getting a worse, but only slightly worse, hit than originally anticipated.
I may be totally wrong though, because I can barely tie my own shoes. Let rds or Duke input
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:28 pm to JBM210
This was the scope of winds with the 3PM update (which was at 2PM). They talked about potentially moving it East in the next update. So this info may already be out of date.
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:28 pm to bayou39
quote:Im watching this Zoom Earth satellite with the NHC track overplayed and the center still appears NE of the track by 15 miles if the earlier poster was correct about it being a 30 mile wide eye.
Don't think this is right ... Recon just put the eye 8 miles sw of the nhc projection i thought I read
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:29 pm to Hulkklogan
Another link for the NWS New Orleans live stream earlier:
YouTube
YouTube
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:29 pm to Hulkklogan
seems like whomever is running the account misinterpreted maximum gusts for sustained winds. highly irresponsible lol
This post was edited on 8/28/21 at 5:30 pm
Posted on 8/28/21 at 5:29 pm to skullhawk
quote:
Caparotta on wafb said worst case scenario for BR is 90 mph gusts.
So less than Gustav? Good news if true.
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