re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

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!!!!!!!!!!HURRICANE IDA UPDATE!!!!!!!!!!!

Everything is going as expected with Hurricane Ida. It has emerged off Cuba overnight and is now reorganizing. While still only a Category 1, the structure and "skeleton" of Ida is very impressive. It is in the stages of taking off and rapidly intensifying into a major hurricane. The rapid intensification stage will likely take place overnight and tomorrow morning. Ida will be passing over one of the highest areas of oceanic heat content (first picture). While sea surface temperatures are important for strengthening storms, the depth of the warm waters matters greatly for sustaining major hurricanes.

As of now, recon continues to find a slowly organizing storm with minimal pressure drops, but this is expected as it gears up for overnight. No changes to track, still forecasting a Category 4 at landfall, tornado threat on the eastern side, fresh water flooding from 10-15" rainfall totals, widespread 6-10' storm surge. While storm surge is notoriously the worst impact of major hurricanes, Ida will produce high rainfall totals. The Weather Prediction Center is highlighting a HIGH risk for flash flooding (second and third picture). All of southeast LA will experience widespread 7-10" of rain, but more than likely over a foot in many areas. Anywhere in the third picture where there is a yellow contour is 10+inches of rain forecasted.

Winds will be the wild card if trying to forecast for your area. Still expecting a track that stays just to the west of the Mississippi River near Port Allen. If this occurs then all of Ascension and EBR will experience inner/outer eyewall. It's very difficult to have sustained 100 mph winds that far inland, but I would definitely expect to see sustained hurricane force with 100+ wind gusts. There will be isolated tornadoes for the beginning of the storm, but the main threat will be once the dry air wraps in on the back side where we get isolated banding features. Basically as the storm is exiting the region. These tornadoes will be short-lived and nearly impossible to see. SPC has a SLIGHT risk tomorrow.

Overall, don't expect much to change before tomorrow. Landfall sometime tomorrow afternoon and the worst of the weather will unfortunately be at night. Prepare for a long night Sunday into Monday. Storm should be done by late Monday.

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