re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

quote:

---

y'all are about to get a stronger response than i got the time i fricked with the real doll forum

---

I didn't do shite, I don't post there, just lurk.

That place sucks. I bet they all lurk here at seethe with rage at how much fun we have

I actually do remember that place. The owner would ban anyone that challenged his forecasts.

quote:

---

No.. the worst weather forum ever was hardcoreweather.com. Anyone remember that?

---

Yep. I 'member it.

quote:

---

It's gonna have some shear to fight until it gets to the yucatan channel then it lightens up and looks good the whole way through the NW Gulf. Subject to change of course. OHC is really good in the NW Caribbean which helped Grace out there but Grace had less shear to deal with.

---

There is a big ULL over FL that is moving west and currently shearing the system. It is also aiding downshear convection, that might be why models are favoring the northern area of the wave axis for development.



As I highlighted yesterday, this ULL eventually gets squeezed down to a PVS over the W. Gulf.

quote:

---

---

The models are in pretty good agreement that the outflow from both 14E & 99L work over that PVS but it will be a hard to forecast balancing act. This will be something to watch, failure mode, that could hang on longer than forecast and keep shearing the system. The last several runs of the GFS show it close to keep the system in check but eventually 99L dominates the upper air pattern over the Gulf.



In the short term, that shear will probably continue to favor convection on the northern edge of the wave axis. Earlier model runs had the wave and the monsoon trough competing for dominance (then even before that they were trying to spin something out of a CAG, which isn't favored by climo, so that was discounted last week in favor of genesis near the N. Yucatan with a track NW into the Gulf). Now as the wave gets rolled up into CA the dynamics of that process will also favor the farther north genesis thinking.

quote:

---

As with every hurricane that enters the Gulf the target is Morgan City. The only question that remains is how close it will get to that target?

---

Every gulf coast hurricane warning in history has run from somewhere to Intracoastal City.

quote:

---

So why might it not be as bad?

Here is this afternoon's HWRF, looking at low level rotation. You see the two boxed centers (boxed because circles made them look like sideways tits) with the two competing low level rotations? That's pretty disorganized on approach to the Yucatan.

Which means it takes a while to get together enough to take advantage of the warm gulf, and also tends to push it further south and more of a Texas problem. It would likely hit major status by landfall, but not quite the high end potential of a Louisiana track.

---

The multiple vort maxs imbedded within a larger circulation is pretty common in the initial stages of development. Those are driven by convective burst, which models struggle with, but the longer those continue to dance around and not conslidate the better.

Exactly

quote:

---

So what size storm are we looking at what does a 973 on the pressure calculate to?

---

Cat 9

quote:

---

The multiple vort maxs imbedded within a larger circulation is pretty common in the initial stages of development.

---

Sure. That nasty 00z HWRF had a similar moment but the north vort won. This afternoon the dance goes on much longer and doesnt consolidate a center until over the Yucatan.

That being said, theres a lot pointing to that northern one winning out.