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Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:22 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Sorry, but no. You can't compute the CFR using only "confirmed" cases in the denominator.
I'm not disagreeing with the point you're trying to make, but your statement above is wrong. That's the definition of case fatality rate, using diagnosed, i.e. cofirmed, cases in the denominator.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:22 pm to Pintail
quote:
What I am saying is that this is 0.03% more deadly that the flu (which has a vaccine given to the vulnerable people already). Not several times deadlier like you claim.
So you think the death rate is 0.17%? Meaning that every single one of the 8.7 million people in NYC have had the virus?
The goal posts always seem to move in order for y’all to interpret data so that you can continue to believe what you believed to be true 6 weeks ago. It is ok to change your mind.
Even a 0.4% true death rate that the other poster is touting is well below what a vast majority of medical professionals have estimated. And whenever pressed with real data like confirmed deaths the question becomes “how many of those deaths really had the virus?”
I admire the persistence.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:23 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
I'm not disagreeing with the point you're trying to make, but your statement above is wrong. That's the definition of case fatality rate, using diagnosed, i.e. cofirmed, cases in the denominator.
Sure, but the denominator of confirmed cases is WAYYYY off right now because we haven't antibody tested. That will add likely hundreds of thousands to the denominator of confirmed cases.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:25 pm to Jake88
quote:
I've never seen the flu tear through nursing homes
It does, actually.
10s of thousands every year.
Nobody pays attention. In fact, so many DNR's in nursing homes that they don't even test for flu, they give them tylenol and eventually morphine and let them die.
There's no cameras, no department of health task force to count every one of them.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:26 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
I'm not disagreeing with the point you're trying to make, but your statement above is wrong. That's the definition of case fatality rate, using diagnosed, i.e. cofirmed, cases in the denominator.
And the antibody sample is or is not considered "confirmed" in your mind?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:27 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
using diagnosed, i.e. cofirmed, cases in the denominator.
And "this guy tested negative before he died, but it really feels like this was covid-19" in the numerator.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:27 pm to TheCaterpillar
Positions are hardened now; it's either the flu or it's a scourge that can only be fixed by shutting down the economy and firing up the money printing presses. There's apparently not much middle ground.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:28 pm to Bwmdx
quote:
But you also have to take into account that there are a sizable number of deaths that are being attributed to Covid that may only be simple carriers who have actually died from others causes.
And that’s not true of flu deaths?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:28 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
Even a 0.4% true death rate that the other poster is touting is well below what a vast majority of medical professionals have estimated.
Everyone is going off bullshite data in the denominator because we don't have the antibody numbers yet. Even medical professionals. I've heard several people at my place of work say something similar, that includes multiple doctors.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:30 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Sure, but the denominator of confirmed cases is WAYYYY off right now because we haven't antibody tested.
Like I said, I wasn't disagreeing with the point he was trying to make. But the definition of CFR is what it is; diagnosed cases in the denominator.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:30 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
So you think the death rate is 0.17%? Meaning that every single one of the 8.7 million people in NYC have had the virus?
Did you even read the article?
quote:
These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April
Now let’s do some math. There have been 69 deaths in Santa Clara county.
69/48,000= 0.001437 =0.14%
69/81,000=0.0008518 =0.09%
I will say you make a good point.
quote:
No amount of available data will change the minds of the stubborn.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:31 pm to cwil177
quote:
The flu doesn’t overwhelm ICUs and ERs in hard hit areas
Google this exactly "2018 hospital flu overrun".
The question isn't whether the flu ever overwhelms hospitals, because it certainly does.
The question is whether this COVID pandemic would have overwhelmed hospitals to a greater degree, without any shutdowns, than the flu did in 2018.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:32 pm to TheCaterpillar
The reality is the various governmental agencies are making decisions based on the numbers they are given, including the number of cases. If the true number of people infected is 50-85 times higher then they are making decisions based on flawed data, which is hurting a shite ton more than it is helping
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:35 pm to deeprig9
quote:
And the antibody sample is or is not considered "confirmed" in your mind?
You can add those to the denominator if you like, but it doesn't change the current US CFR very much. The denominator using confirmed cases in the US right now is approaching 700,000. That study tested 3330 people and got 1.5% seropositive, so add about 50 more confirmed cases to the denominator.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:37 pm to OldManRiver
It’s similar to the flu if the flu didn’t have a vaccine. I think that’s fair to say. I would think at this time it’s fair to say that it’s actually more infectious then the flu but it also has a lot higher percentage of people that are asymptomatic. How many people get influenza and don’t know it? Honestly asking?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:37 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Everyone is going off bullshite data in the denominator because we don't have the antibody numbers yet. Even medical professionals. I've heard several people at my place of work say something similar, that includes multiple doctors.
So at this point in time I have 2 choices:
1. Believe vast majority of medical professionals opinion
2. Believe what I want to believe to be true
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:37 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
Translation = it's likely just flu.
Santa Clara County reported 8 flu deaths last flu season. They have reported 66 COVID19 deaths.
This study is important when it comes to getting a better understanding of the big picture. SCC is one of the hardest hit counties in NoCal, so areas outside of SCC probably have lower exposure rates, esp. the rural areas. So at the upper end of exposure NoCal is at 3% (or 97% not infected) but the actual number is probably lower than that. We need more of this type of study, randomized in various parts of the country, to truly understand what we are up against.
Ultimately, a very large portion of the population hasn't been exposed due to early travel restrictions on China and the current mitigation efforts. That does leave the potential for a large 2nd wave on the table, esp. since lots of people seem to think this "is almost over" and we are out of the woods.
And for transparency, I think the current mitigation efforts are not needed in a lot of areas and things should be opened back up. However, I believe that there will be mitigation efforts put back in place in the future but, with better testing and data, those future mitigation efforts can be much more localized.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:40 pm to rds dc
quote:
with better testing and data, those future mitigation efforts can be much more localized.
Up to this point our politicians dont seem interested in localizing lockdowns.
I doubt that changes but we will see
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:41 pm to deeprig9
quote:f
Neither does Covid-19
New York, Italy, France and Spain say Hi.
It doesn't overwhelm ICU's when you shut down everything first, you can say that.
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