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Stanford Paper: Median infection fatality rate of Covid-19 for those under 70 just 0.04%
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:10 pm
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:10 pm
quote:
John Ioannidis, a professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University, argues in a paper published earlier this month that COVID-19 "seroprevalence studies," which measure infection rates using the presence of antibodies in blood samples, "typically show a much lower fatality than initially speculated in the earlier days of the pandemic."
"It should be appreciated," he writes in the paper, "that [the fatality rate] is not a fixed physical constant and it can vary substantially across locations, depending on the population structure, the case-mix of infected and deceased individuals and other, local factors."
In the paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, Ioannidis surveyed 23 different seroprevalence studies and found that "among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from ... 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%."
The median fatality rate of all cases, he writes, is 0.26%, significantly lower than some earlier estimates that suggested rates as high as over 3%.
In the paper, Ioannidis acknowledges that "while COVID-19 is a formidable threat," the apparently low fatality rate compared to earlier estimates "is a welcome piece of evidence."
"Decision-makers can use measures that will try to avert having the virus infect people and settings who are at high risk of severe outcomes," he writes. "These measures may be possible to be far more precise and tailored to specific high- risk individuals and settings than blind lockdown of the entire society."
LINK
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:11 pm to RollTide1987
So even less than the flu?
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:12 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
John Ioannidis
He was a hell of a linebacker. Should be in the Hall of Fame.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:13 pm to RollTide1987
Seems pretty clear at this point, if you're old and you get it your fricked. You at minimum get sick as shite. If you are young, you're fine, and its likely you'll never even know you've had it.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:44 pm to RollTide1987
The CDC gave a IFR of 0.4% for symptomatic people almost a month ago. They estimated 65% of those will be symptomatic so if you factor in asymptomatic cases as well you end up with his IFR of 0.26% for everyone lumped in. The virus is political at this point, and it's a crime at how the media is driving the politics in it.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:48 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
Seems pretty clear at this point, if you're old and you get it your fricked. You at minimum get sick as shite.
The four people I know that got it are in their 70s & 80s. None required hospitalization and were back to normal in 2 weeks or less.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:49 pm to weadjust
quote:
The four people I know that got it are in their 70s & 80s. None required hospitalization and were back to normal in 2 weeks or less.
I've never been sick for 2 weeks. Id consider that sick as shite
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:50 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
if you're old and you get it your fricked.
Not true. Plenty of older healthy people in good shape do great.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:53 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
I've never been sick for 2 weeks. Id consider that sick as shite
This here.
If I'm going on 2 weeks sick my arse is going somewhere to see what is wrong. Hell, if I'm sick for 2 days I start to get worried that something bigger is going on.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 12:58 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
So even less than the flu?
A little higher than the flu when all patients are included - but not much.
Not sure the flu fatality rate for those under 70. I would imagine it drops substantially as the elderly are the most susceptible.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 1:01 pm to St Augustine
quote:
Not true. Plenty of older healthy people in good shape do great.
Sure, but of you told me if I had a 5% chance of dieing or a greater chance then that I'd have to be in the hospital for several days to weeks from a very contagious virus id stay my arse at home. If I told you there was a 5% chance you'd be in a fata car accident every time you drove you'd think harder about how often you got in your car.
Most will be OK, but a large number of older people are also going to get extremely sick or die.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 1:01 pm to Winston Cup
Our entire tourist season down the drain and the local Luddites are celebrating their safeness.
People are such goddamned sheep.
People are such goddamned sheep.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 1:07 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
A scientist known for his contrarian takes to dire COVID-19 predictions has released a paper claiming that antibody evidence suggests the median coronavirus infection fatality rate for those under 70 is just 0.04%.
This is the opening sentence to that article.
What it should say is:
The only scientist that had the courage from the beginning of this pandemic to be objective and use actual data with regards to COVID-19 predictions has released a paper claiming that antibody evidence suggests the median coronavirus infection fatality rate for those under 70 is just 0.04%.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 1:08 pm to RollTide1987
This will never be covered by the MSM. Instead you will hear about 16 middle aged women who went out to a bar and got Covid. Never mind the fact that nothing happened to them.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 1:14 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
So even less than the flu?
Denier
Posted on 6/21/20 at 2:12 pm to RollTide1987
I'm on Day 9 of a COVID flu and am starting to wish I were in the .4%. I'm normally a healthy guy (not overweight and workout often) and this damn thing just won't freaking go away.
Posted on 6/21/20 at 2:40 pm to RollTide1987
Posted on 6/21/20 at 2:43 pm to Oilfieldbiology
We are living in the time of stupidity.
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