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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:32 am to HubbaBubba
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:37 am to TheFonz
my knee is never wrong, and my knee feels fine so there's no storm coming
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:46 am to DVinBR
Good enough for me.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:47 am to DVinBR
quote:
So far, no signs of real organization to Invest #91L east of the Windward Islands. Mid-level rotation is apparent, but doesn't extend to the surface.
Only model showing development is HWRF, which has an aggressive bias east of the islands. Something to watch just in case.
quote:
Levi Cowan
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:49 am to rds dc
Well frick me....we're leaving for Rosemary Thursday
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:22 am to rds dc
Not sure where to ask this without starting a new thread, but does anyone know the fate of our palm tree from camera 3 i think?
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:39 pm to RATeamWannabe
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:41 pm to Oates Mustache
Lowered probability
Always nice to see that puddle of piss rather than the puddle of blood on the 5 day outlook
Always nice to see that puddle of piss rather than the puddle of blood on the 5 day outlook
Posted on 10/3/22 at 2:46 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Always nice to see that puddle of piss rather than the puddle of blood on the 5 day outlook
Posted on 10/3/22 at 3:13 pm to JJJimmyJimJames
quote:
This is already taking place in most gulf states below I-10
Texas is still entrenched in a three year coastal building boom of epic proportions and the only thing remotely reflecting a slow down is the lack of available lots. This comes on the heels of a period since Ike of extreme growth in residential construction. No one is having any issues getting TWIA or FEMA flood insurance. I cant speak for other states, other than the Gulf Shores beach front is borderline unrecognizable each year I go.
quote:
when renovation or modification is made at 50% of existing valuation or more. New levels of floodproofing must be undertaken for the entire building
This has been a thing since before 2009 and has not had any affect on ownership (again, at least in Texas). If anything, 51% renovations are way up, with many people being priced out of building new or unable to upgrade due to lack of land.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 3:20 pm to HubbaBubba
I just knew that the common core math was going to lead to this.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 4:42 pm to Cosmo
I wouldnt sleep on the development chances just yet.
I know the models arent biting but it should end up in a favorable pocket of conditions once it gets in front of that upper low to its north.
I know the models arent biting but it should end up in a favorable pocket of conditions once it gets in front of that upper low to its north.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 4:47 pm to Duke
quote:
I know the models arent biting but it should end up in a favorable pocket of conditions once it gets in front of that upper low to its north.
ugh I hope it's just those faux pockets that are sewn shut
Posted on 10/3/22 at 4:53 pm to Duke
quote:
I wouldnt sleep on the development chances just yet. I know the models arent biting but it should end up in a favorable pocket of conditions once it gets in front of that upper low to its north.
Is the consensus still that it will continue tracking west into a Central America landfall currently due to a front to the north?
Posted on 10/3/22 at 5:22 pm to Slagathor
quote:
I hope it's just those faux pockets that are sewn shut
Me too, Debbie.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 8:04 pm to tide06
quote:
Is the consensus still that it will continue tracking west into a Central America landfall currently due to a front to the north?
As things stand, that should be the case.
This is a case of:
Its very probably not going to be a Gulf Coast problem. Theres a reasonable case it never forms and a probable case if it does form, it gets thrown into Central America.
Im watching this for the off chance a s/w drops out the NW and opens a door north for a developed system.
Thats not what Im expecting but still going to watch just in case.
Its nothing but for the biggest cloud nerds to even concern themselves with at this point.
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 8:05 pm
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:47 pm to Duke
Looks like the other one is trying to pivot to the US now
Posted on 10/4/22 at 8:11 am to Duke
You can see the surface circulation out in front of the main convection on the Visibile Satellite. Just above 12N and near 57W
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 8:18 am
Posted on 10/4/22 at 11:47 am to rds dc
NHC with a Special TWO
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
East of the Windward Islands:
Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived
wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be
forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave
is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions
could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while
moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Berg
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022
East of the Windward Islands:
Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived
wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be
forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave
is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions
could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while
moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Berg
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