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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:40 am to rds dc
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:40 am to BuddyRoeaux
Posting again for the 2nd page...
quote:
While thunderstorms have increased significantly, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for development.
quote:
There are no indications of a threat to the Gulf or Florida.
quote:
The disturbance only has a 10 percent chance of developing within the next week.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:45 am to Oates Mustache
Damn it! I just put all the breast milk back in the freezer!
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:47 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
There are no indications of a threat to the Gulf or Florida.
That's pretty strong language. There is some ensemble support for this system and it looks like the wave will interact with a weak Kelvin Wave. The models appear to drive it into CA which would obviously keep it out of the Gulf. However, given the time of year, it wouldn't be surprising to see a short wave trough spring it out of the WCAB.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:48 am to Oates Mustache
Who said that?
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:51 am to rds dc
Bruh, rds, we gave you the rest of the year off…….
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:51 am to lsuman25
quote:
Who said that?
StormGeo, an hour ago for their forecast. They specifically mentioned this one.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:52 am to Legion of Doom
Going to Australia in July, should I make other plans?
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:54 am to Sheep
quote:
Going to Australia in July, should I make other plans?
quote:
by Sheep
New Zealand
Posted on 10/2/22 at 8:56 am to MoarKilometers
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:00 am to rds dc
No.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:01 am to Maytheporkbewithyou
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:40 am to rds dc
This wave has a decent sat presentation and looks healthy on the CIMSS 700mb analysis.
Research indicates that a vigorous 700mb vort is a better long-term indicator of development than the 850mb vort. It looks like the 06z GEFS picked up on this 700mb vort and had an uptick in members that develop the system in the shorter term.
00z
vs 06z
Research indicates that a vigorous 700mb vort is a better long-term indicator of development than the 850mb vort. It looks like the 06z GEFS picked up on this 700mb vort and had an uptick in members that develop the system in the shorter term.
00z
vs 06z
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:42 am to rds dc
frick off
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:53 am to rds dc
quote:
There is some ensemble support for this system and it looks like the wave will interact with a weak Kelvin Wave. The models appear to drive it into CA which would obviously keep it out of the Gulf. However, given the time of year, it wouldn't be surprising to see a short wave trough spring it out of the WCAB.
Baw, you couldn't give me the weekend?
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:57 am to Tyga Woods
quote:
Flying BTR to Denver 11 days from now. Should I make other plans?
Do yourself a favor and change it to a one way flight. Get out while you have a chance.
Posted on 10/2/22 at 9:58 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
quote:
October Surprise
Posted on 10/2/22 at 10:00 am to Duke
quote:
Baw, you couldn't give me the weekend?
Hopefully, the overnight model consensus holds through the week and this thread can fade away.
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