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re: Spawn/Remnants of Julia - 93L NHC 60%

Posted on 10/4/22 at 11:56 am to
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 11:56 am to
91L will just slam into Nicaragua if anything forms right? Hopefully it keeps moving and moving west because any slowdown might open the door to a northern turn
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
22057 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

91L will just slam into Nicaragua if anything forms right?


From this morning's forecast...

quote:

There are no indications this system will threaten the Gulf of Mexico or Florida. Instead, it is expected to track toward Nicaragua and Honduras. The disturbance consists of a large area of disorganized thunderstorms.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
22057 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 2:15 pm to


quote:

@BillKarins
A vast sprawling high-pressure system over the eastern half of the nation (blue H) will protect the Gulf Coast states from the next tropical threat in the Caribbean and steer it into Nicaragua or Honduras.
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa
Member since Aug 2012
13531 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

Lowered probability

Always nice to see that puddle of piss rather than the puddle of blood on the 5 day outlook




Not so fast my friend....



But hopefully it heads to Central America...
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
12975 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 2:30 pm to
quote:

A vast sprawling high-pressure system over the eastern half of the nation (blue H) will protect the Gulf Coast states from the next tropical threat in the Caribbean and steer it into Nicaragua or Honduras.


don't want any tropical systems but we are going to get into a pretty significant drought here if all this dry air and high pressure keeps persisting, it hasn't rained in almost a month now
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19589 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 8:51 pm to
So still header for central America?
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 8:56 pm to
It depends
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35610 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 8:57 pm to
Everything is pointing that way and Im not seeing anything to open a door north. These storms historically have been flooders for Central America.
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
76658 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:05 pm to
quote:




Posted by BregmansWheelbarrow
Member since Mar 2020
2621 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:18 pm to
It looks like one wave of high pressure after another for the next couple weeks. Strong fronts too. It’s finally knocked the love bugs out in swla after a damn month of swarming
This post was edited on 10/4/22 at 9:19 pm
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35610 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:25 pm to
It looks good to get Louisiana through this last part of the season for LA.

Starts getting really hard to get strong hurricanes into Louisiana by mid October generally.
Posted by Tigernation1290
Member since Aug 2022
130 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:35 pm to
Maybe some insurance companies will start writing in our area again
Posted by PetroBabich
Donetsk Oblast
Member since Apr 2017
4613 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 9:45 pm to
Nothing is happening to put either of these systems in the gulf. This thread can die along with this hurricane season.
Posted by danilo
Member since Nov 2008
20098 posts
Posted on 10/4/22 at 10:45 pm to
Will blow more Mexicans over the boarder
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35610 posts
Posted on 10/6/22 at 10:42 am to
quote:

I wouldnt sleep on the development chances just yet.

I know the models arent biting but it should end up in a favorable pocket of conditions once it gets in front of that upper low to its north.


Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/6/22 at 2:55 pm to
You don't wish it on anyone but central america typically gets it very bad with these systems. Just goes to show how big the gap is in the world just with small things like information. Wouldn't shock me to see lots of deaths over there.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19809 posts
Posted on 10/11/22 at 8:11 am to
NHC going 60% for an area of disturbed weather in the BOC. Technically, this probably isn't Julia but it can be traced back to the larger circulation of Julia. It should stay pinned down in the BOC and mark the end of the Gulf season.



This post was edited on 10/11/22 at 8:13 am
Posted by joemuggs
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
609 posts
Posted on 10/11/22 at 8:18 am to
i mean isn't one of them already in the gulf?
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90560 posts
Posted on 10/11/22 at 8:26 am to
quote:

should stay pinned down in the BOC and mark the end of the Gulf season.


Would the cold front this weekend not open a door north for it if it hangs around that long?
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