re: Southern Snow 1/10

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South of Alexandria and your odds are very low at this point.

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Don't care; north of Alexandria.

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
I keep waiting for that moment where this forecast comes together, and I scream out “AHA”, like I’m in a movie from the 1930s. It hasn’t happened yet, though there are some fairly consistent indications as to how this goes down.
First off, there will be a lead wave of something Sunday morning. Maybe just clouds, but models indicate some pockets of strong lift in this initial wave that may overcome the dry air and put down some surprise flakes. This is a fairly low probability event, but would be the best chance to see some flurries in the southwest part of the area. It’s not impossible to see a few bursts of light snow in Beauregard, Allen, or Evangeline parishes out of this. It’s possible anywhere, especially west of I 49, but in those parishes, it might be your best chance to see a little something. I’d only put the chance around 20-30%.
After this little appetizer rolls through, it’ll be all about watching how the models are handling the reality of where the rain/snow line is. That line will fluctuate through the night, and will probably be quite dependent on how heavy the precipitation is in our area. Another complication is a small warm layer several thousand feet up. It’s only a couple thousand feet thick, and only between 33-36 degrees on some models, but it could be enough to make this close call, a cold rain, or a weird little mix of things that quickly melts when it hits the ground.
So my line remains pretty much the same. North of a Hornbeck to Georgetown to Winnsboro line, this should be mostly snow. South of a DeRidder to Marksville line, this will be mostly rain. In between, it looks a big ol bag of question marks. North of that northern line, I’m saying 1-4 inches of snow with the possibility for more. I think someone ends up getting 6+ out of this, which would be pretty incredible. For the in between area, it’ll range from nothing at all to perhaps an inch or two the closer you get to the line. Models have been pretty consistent on us being right on the edge here in Northern Rapides Parish. For Alexandria and Pineville, I’d say a 60% chance we see flakes at some point, and a 20-30% chance you’ll be able to make a trampoline snowman. I’m telling you, it’s a really close call. If you have family you want to visit in Natchitoches or Winnfield, and want to be in snow, now is the time to invite yourself. This would all crank up Sunday evening, and be finished up early Monday morning. So it’s an 8-12 hour window of potential fun. I’ll evaluate where I’m sleeping tomorrow night when I get a good look at things tomorrow morning. I’d prefer staying home, but if it looks like all rain here, and heavy snow 50 miles north, I’ll be heading up 49 for some meat pies and running around like a kid time.
Edited to add that a winter storm watch is in effect for a big chunk of North Louisiana, including Sabine, Natchitoches, and Winn Parish in the local area.

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NAM and CMC both have about 8” at my house.

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