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Started By
Message
re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:01 am to TheMailman
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:01 am to TheMailman
quote:
Basically the question is asking what are the chances you picked the box with two gold balls from the start.
What are the chances the NEXT ball you select is gold?
Not what WERE the chances, looking back, the first ball was gold.
0
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:01 am to TheMailman
quote:
Everybody is wrong. Basically the question is asking what are the chances you picked the box with two gold balls from the start.
So the answer is 1/3 or 33%
No because once you picked the first gold ball, it is 100% certain that the box with 2 silvers is eliminated, so you can just pretend it never existed.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:01 am to TH03
quote:While it's the right answer, that isn't the reason.
3 balls left. 2 are gold. 2/3. It’s fairly simple, guys.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:02 am to TH03
quote:You are picking from the same box. You don't have the choice of changing.
3 balls left. 2 are gold. 2/3. It’s fairly simple, guys.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:02 am to TH03
quote:
3 balls left. 2 are gold. 2/3. It’s fairly simple, guys.
It just doesn't seem that simple.
If its box 1, the second ball will be gold. If its box 2, the second ball will be silver. We know its not box 3.
Correct?
That is what hangs me up.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:03 am to TheMailman
quote:huh no. The first ball is a given. So the next one one will be either gold or silver...50%.
Everybody is wrong. Basically the question is asking what are the chances you picked the box with two gold balls from the start.
So the answer is 1/3 or 33%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:03 am to 50_Tiger
Equals = Who fricking Cares
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 10:06 am
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:04 am to TheMailman
quote:
It's not the box paradox or the Monty hall because this question specifically states your second draw HAS to come from the same box as the first draw ...
So you are stuck with the odds that you had at the start which is 1/3.
NO!!!!
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:04 am to ell_13
Who said anything about changing?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:04 am to TheMailman
quote:
It's not the box paradox or the Monty hall because this question specifically states your second draw HAS to come from the same box as the first draw ...
And you don't know which box that is.
There are three possible opening moves:
1 - Take G1 from B1
2 - Take G2 from B1
3 - Take G1 From B2
That leaves three possible remaining moves:
1 - Take G2 from B1
2 - Take G1 from B1
3 - Take S1 from B2
your odds are 2/3
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:05 am to castorinho
quote:
huh no. The first ball is a given. So the next one one will be either gold or silver...50%.
But you don't have a choice on what box to select from on your second draw. It's still a 1/3 chance that ball is gold.
I want to gamble with you guys
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:06 am to CptRusty
Okay, that makes sense. I missed the other remaining move.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:06 am to CptRusty
quote:
And you don't know which box that is.
There are three possible opening moves:
1 - Take G1 from B1
2 - Take G2 from B1
3 - Take G1 From B2
That leaves three possible remaining moves:
1 - Take G2 from B1
2 - Take G1 from B1
3 - Take S1 from B2
your odds are 2/3
Yep makes sense when written out like this.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:07 am to TheMailman
quote:it says from the same box?
But you don't have a choice on what box to select from on your second draw. It's still a 1/3 chance that ball is gold.
I want to gamble with you guys
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:07 am to TheMailman
Another way to word the question is: at the start before any ball is pulled. What are the odds that you choose a ball from the box with two gold balls????
It 1/3 or 33%.
It 1/3 or 33%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:07 am to TheMailman
quote:
But you don't have a choice on what box to select from on your second draw. It's still a 1/3 chance that ball is gold.
I want to gamble with you guys
You are so incredibly wrong it's hilarious you're trying to talk trash about gambling.
So you think if I've got a gold ball in hand and have to pick from the same box, that a box that only had silver balls in it still plays into the probability?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:07 am to castorinho
quote:
ays from the same box?
Yes it does
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:07 am to ell_13
Let's call the balls B1G1, B1G2, B2G1, and B2S1 (box 1, gold 1, etc.) Here are the different outcomes you can possibly have when drawing a gold ball first:
1) Draw B1G1. Your remaining ball is B1G2. A gold ball is the outcome
2) Draw B1G2. Your remaining ball is B1G1. A gold ball is the outcome
3) Draw B2G1. Your remaining ball is B2S1. A silver ball is the outcome.
2/3 scenarios result in a gold ball being drawn second.
1) Draw B1G1. Your remaining ball is B1G2. A gold ball is the outcome
2) Draw B1G2. Your remaining ball is B1G1. A gold ball is the outcome
3) Draw B2G1. Your remaining ball is B2S1. A silver ball is the outcome.
2/3 scenarios result in a gold ball being drawn second.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:08 am to ell_13
All silver box is out of the equation at this point.
The question then clearly becomes, did you pick the gold ball from the segregated box or did you pick the gold ball from the integrated box. Odds are clearly 50/50. You could have just as easily picked from all gold as mixed.
The question then clearly becomes, did you pick the gold ball from the segregated box or did you pick the gold ball from the integrated box. Odds are clearly 50/50. You could have just as easily picked from all gold as mixed.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:08 am to monkeybutt
quote:
So you think if I've got a gold ball in hand and have to pick from the same box, that a box that only had silver balls in it still plays into the probability?
You are locked into picking ge same box as the first pull. Your odds don't change
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