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Started By
Message
re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:18 am to TheMailman
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:18 am to TheMailman
quote:
Explain to me how the odds change???
You pick on box - what are the odds of it being the box with two gold balls???
You are almost too stupid to insult.
The odds change and dramatically increase the odds that the next ball in the box is gold once you pick the first gold ball.
Because when you do, you know with 100% certainty that you did not pick the box with 2 silver balls.
THAT BOX IS ELIMINATED AND MAY AS WELL HAVE NEVER EXISTED.
You now have 3 balls, 2 gold one silver. It really is not any more complicated than that.
1
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:18 am to TheMailman
Read this slowly, several times if necessary:
There are three possible opening moves:
1 - Take G1 from B1
2 - Take G2 from B1
3 - Take G1 From B2
That leaves three possible remaining moves:
1 - Take G2 from B1
2 - Take G1 from B1
3 - Take S1 from B2
your odds are 2/3
There are three possible opening moves:
1 - Take G1 from B1
2 - Take G2 from B1
3 - Take G1 From B2
That leaves three possible remaining moves:
1 - Take G2 from B1
2 - Take G1 from B1
3 - Take S1 from B2
your odds are 2/3
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:19 am to TheMailman
quote:
How in the frick is that not the question????
What are the odds before picking anything that you are going to pick the two gold ball box.
You have picked a gold ball, what are the odds after your first pick that your next pick will be gold.
Those are two different things and I feel sorry you don't understand that.
ETA: Your problem is you keep acting like picking the two silver ball box was ever an option. This problem starts off after having already eliminated that box.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 10:21 am
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:19 am to CptRusty
quote:It's a paradox because multiple answers have mathematical support.
What is astounding is the number of people that try to argue after seeing the correct answer explained.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:20 am to PearlJam
quote:
It's a paradox because multiple answers have mathematical support.
Not if you really understand the question
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:21 am to PearlJam
quote:
It's a paradox because multiple answers have mathematical support.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:22 am to PearlJam
quote:
It's a paradox because multiple answers have mathematical support.
No.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:22 am to memphis tiger
quote:
The odds change and dramatically increase the odds that the next ball in the box is gold once you pick the first gold ball.
Because when you do, you know with 100% certainty that you did not pick the box with 2 silver balls.
THAT BOX IS ELIMINATED AND MAY AS WELL HAVE NEVER EXISTED. You now have 3 balls, 2 gold one silver.
It really is not any more complicated than that.
I totally agree with you IF YOU HAD A CHOICE of what box to pick from on the second pull. But you don't. You MUST pull from the same box as your first pick. Basically the second pull is irrelevant for this conversation. Its asking the odds that you picked the box with two gold balls.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:23 am to TH03
This is exactly how I was hoping the thread would go. 
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:23 am to CptRusty
quote:correct and once you make this move, only one ball is left in the whatever box that is. And we know it's not the silver box. So either it's a gold ball, if your box is the all gold box or its the silver ball if your box is the mixed boss. That's 50%.
There are three possible opening moves:
1 - Take G1 from B1
2 - Take G2 from B1
3 - Take G1 From B2
You're accounting for an extra ball, which you shouldn't.
quote:
1 - Take G2 from B1
2 - Take G1 from B1
3 - Take S1 from B2
your odds are 2/3
See your problem is that you're STILL accounting for both gold balls in box one AFTER drawing.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:24 am to 50_Tiger
33%
Your first pick you have 2/3 chance picking gold. You're second pick is 1/2.
2/3 * 1/2 is 33%
Your first pick you have 2/3 chance picking gold. You're second pick is 1/2.
2/3 * 1/2 is 33%
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:25 am to NewGrad1212
quote:
NewGrad1212
Maybe go back to school.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:25 am to castorinho
Gold vs. silver doesn't really matter.
2/3 times, the second pull will be the same as the first pull, whether it's gold or silver.
1/3 times, it won't because it's the mixed box.
2/3 times, the second pull will be the same as the first pull, whether it's gold or silver.
1/3 times, it won't because it's the mixed box.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:25 am to castorinho
quote:
See your problem is that you're STILL accounting for both gold balls in box one AFTER drawing.
You're not accounting for both balls, you're accounting for both scenarios.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:25 am to TheMailman
quote:
But you don't. You MUST pull from the same box as your first pick.
Leave off the box with 2 silvers.
If you have only the first two boxes, and you pull a single ball from each of those boxes, at random, 100 times...what do you think the outcome distribution will look like?
How many times will you have pulled gold, how many times will you have pulled silver?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:26 am to castorinho
Outcomes, not balls.
You don’t know which ball you selected first until you select the second.
You don’t know which ball you selected first until you select the second.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:26 am to TH03
What you mean tho?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:26 am to NewGrad1212
quote:
33%
Your first pick you have 2/3 chance picking gold. You're second pick is 1/2.
2/3 * 1/2 is 33%
Oh lord
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:27 am to NewGrad1212
quote:
33%
No.
quote:
Your first pick you have 2/3 chance picking gold
Holy shite!!!! So you started with 3 gold and 3 silver balls and you think there was a 2/3 chance to pick gold with the first random pick???
We have found someone dumber than the mailman
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 10:28 am
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:28 am to TheMailman
quote:
I totally agree with you IF YOU HAD A CHOICE of what box to pick from on the second pull. But you don't. You MUST pull from the same box as your first pick. Basically the second pull is irrelevant for this conversation. Its asking the odds that you picked the box with two gold balls.
That’s exactly how I see it. You either picked GG box or GS box. The fact that your box may have contained 2 G is not really relevant because now it only has one ball left and you either picked GG box or GS box. 50/50.
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