re: Solve this OT

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But you don't have a choice on what box to select from on your second draw. It's still a 1/3 chance that ball is gold.

I want to gamble with you guys

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Where are you getting this. This is even dumber than the 50% guys.

YOU KNOW THE FIST BALL WAS GOLD. The box with 2 silver is completely irrelevant. It has been eliminated form the equation.

Your odds of picking gold at the fist draw were 50%. Once you picked gold, you KNOW ABSOLUTELY, that 2 of the remaining 3 balls are gold. You KNOW ABSOLUTELY that you did not pick from the box with 2 silver.

So not knowing anything else, you know that the odds of picking a gold ball from the same box are 2/3 or 67%

1/3 is just stupidity

It's similar to the Monty Hall problem.

66%

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Another way to word the question is: at the start before any ball is pulled. What are the odds that you choose a ball from the box with two gold balls????


It 1/3 or 33%.

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That is NOT the question at all

The problem, is that the paradox takes into account the activity being done infinite times. The question is about 1 draw. Meaning, at the exact point in time after you drew a gold ball, you have a 50% chance that the next ball will be gold.

This is the whole reason for it being a paradox.....because the question talks about that one specific drawn, but Bertrand takes into account the activity playing out for infinity.

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Cool. You’re bringing this up as if it was stated

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the graphic in the OP explicitly states

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Explain to me how the odds change???


You pick on box - what are the odds of it being the box with two gold balls???

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I have to admit I didn't know the answer before seeing the explanation.

What is astounding is the number of people that try to argue after seeing the correct answer explained

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What's even more astounding is the guy still arguing that the answer is 1/3.

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Explain to me how the odds change???


You pick on box - what are the odds of it being the box with two gold balls???

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That's not what the question is. And the fact you can't grasp this is worrisome.

I think the box thing is most people’s hangup. The best way to resolve that paradox is to realize that by knowing you got a gold ball, you know the following very important information:

* You did not pick out of Box 3 (which everyone seems to understand)
* You probably picked out of Box 1 (which is what some people are getting hung up on)

Once you understand that 2nd piece of information then you realize why it’s 66.7% and not 50/50.