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Started By
Message
re: So we are heading into worldwide recession in the 4th Qtr
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:39 pm to TutHillTiger
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:39 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
I think a lot of us said this when the Fed began chasing inflationary “ghost” by significantly increasing the interest rates every month without taking the time to see the actual effects or impacts, (which take 3 to 4 quarters to realize), since so much of this was due to Covid and related supply issues etc , It’s like using an atom bomb to get rid of a few beavers.
Nope.
When you forced ~$2T of liquidity into the economy within just a month or so, inflation is inevitable. The inflation issue was growing even as supply chains began rebounding.
We're already beyond the 12-month mark from the beginning of the hikes and we're STILL seeing inflation increasing well above the target 2%. To go with that, Core CPI is remaining somewhat sticky due to Shelter refusing to come down. Going more slowly would have done nothing but allow inflation to go higher and last longer.
1
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:40 pm to TutHillTiger
y'all keep fricking this goat, trying to talk it into existence;
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:41 pm to LemmyLives
quote:
We've been in a "classically defined" recession for months.
Link?
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:46 pm to TutHillTiger
I think they’d prefer to hold off until Dec 2024. Then it will hit.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:52 pm to greygoose
quote:
Prices on cars are about to take a tumble.....just like houses.
I want to believe you, but been hearing this for 1.5 years.
And I do think vehicle prices might drop a good bit over the next six months, but I don’t see housing prices going down much.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 9:55 pm to Tantal
quote:
China is currently in a barely-controlled implosion. Russia's economy is smaller than Texas'. All of the Chicken Littles worried about BRICS taking over the world need to research a little more.
Yes and no. China is one of the largest oil importers in the world while Russia is the 2nd largest exporter. That alone isn't enough to cause concern but the Saudis have shown some interest in joining BRICS as has the UAE. If that were to happen, it would be 3 of the top 5 oil exporting countries (making up for almost as much exports as the remaining countries in the top 10 combined).
Along with that, the Saudis are pretty much OPEC, especially if UAE moves that way with them. At that point you're looking at 8 of the top 10 oil exporters in BRICS. China has been using their Belt and Roads Initiative to try to entice more Asian countries into joining, this sort of program is how they've made such massive inroads into Africa and South America.
All that said, it would still be an uphill battle for BRICS to create a new petro currency (which they are looking into) and then for it to make a dent in the USD. The biggest advantage they would have is that "never gonna happen" attitude on our part (see also: federal default on debt). That attitude is what's led us to being so dependent on China for so much of our manufacturing, allowed them to expand greatly in the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean and up and down the African continent.
We should be taking it seriously now in order to insure we don't have to take it seriously later.
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 9:58 pm
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:10 pm to Bard
quote:
China has been using their Belt and Roads Initiative to try to entice more Asian countries into joining,
Poor countries are defaulting on those loans left and right and others are starting to see them as the debt trap that they are. Second, the U.S. is re-shoring, near-shoring, and friend-shoring much of our manufacturing from China back to North America, with some of the middle-tier electronics being done in SE Asia. Without our security overwatch on the high seas and our market to sell to, there IS NO China. India, for cultural and religious reasons, has always been fairly insular, so they're not going to be a major global player. All the Saudis are really looking for is another protector since we're no longer interested. With our energy reserves and agriculture, we don't really need to trade globally. North America can get by just fine being 98% self-contained.
This post was edited on 7/11/23 at 10:15 pm
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:34 pm to Bard
quote:
When you forced ~$2T of liquidity into the economy within just a month or so, inflation is inevitable
I'm a quant retard compared to you, but this wasn't exactly a surprise, am I right?
What did we expect to happen?
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:46 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:And he can see the future because of his net worth?
I just heard this from the only billionaire I know.
U r dum
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:48 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
I think a lot of us said this when the Fed began chasing inflationary “ghost”
What was the ghost about inflation? It was very real and very significant.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:50 pm to greygoose
quote:
Prices on cars are about to take a tumble.....just like houses.
I really don’t think they will. Maybe you can get a car for 10% off MSRP in six months, but I doubt a significant decrease is coming.
A $3 happy meal is now $5. A “30k” vehicle is now 50k. Too much money got printed and disbursed.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 10:56 pm to Ric Flair
Reverse bullwhip effect. They’ll adjust production and prices together so you could see prices go either direction for both markets.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 11:02 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
I think a lot of us said this when the Fed began chasing inflationary “ghost”
quote:
It’s like using an atom bomb to get rid of a few beavers.
You obviously do not work in an industry where there are literally any supplies that change hands, and I mean ANY, because I don’t know one thing that isn’t up significantly
Posted on 7/11/23 at 11:34 pm to TutHillTiger
quote:
I think a lot of us said this when the Fed began chasing inflationary “ghost” by significantly increasing the interest rates every month without taking the time to see the actual effects or impacts,
Everyone is saying it’s transitory. Gonna go up a little bit and then back down. All the top economists in my cabinet agree.
Posted on 7/11/23 at 11:40 pm to Chucktown_Badger
Posted on 7/12/23 at 12:12 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
I just heard this from the only billionaire I know.
One of the best things about having poor acquaintances is inflating your worth and feeding them frivolous BS.
Posted on 7/12/23 at 12:17 am to Sun God
quote:
Gen x is smaller population wise?
Yes
Posted on 7/12/23 at 3:53 pm to TutHillTiger
OEM's have a backlog up to 2 years on equipment for manufacturing.
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