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re: So did the fed really fix inflation or did the supply chain problem etc just fade out
Posted on 2/5/24 at 9:29 am to TutHillTiger
Posted on 2/5/24 at 9:29 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
First of all, I like Chairman Powell. Conservative, Cautious and definitely gets it. Being a Volker not a Greenspan guy, I just not a proponent of killing inflation at any cost. That said I thought for sure that was going to send us into a recession and it looks like we may have avoided that. That said, I am still not sure the rate hikes really did that much to curb inflation, and think it was more the covid money and supply disruption stopped. However, if anyone has any evidence to the contrary, I am all ears.
We are in a debt ouroboros, and headed towards eventual economic collapse secondary to unsustainable debt.
0
Posted on 2/5/24 at 9:30 am to TutHillTiger
Prices always rise like a rocket but drop like a feather.
The recent episode of inflation was the perfect storm of Covid-related causes..
Stimulus
Short labor supply resulting in higher wages
Supply chain disruption
The recent episode of inflation was the perfect storm of Covid-related causes..
Stimulus
Short labor supply resulting in higher wages
Supply chain disruption
Posted on 2/5/24 at 9:33 am to Jcorye1
quote:
nuclear level shite to horrendous shite.
PCE price index was 2.6% in December. The fed’s target is ~2%.
We are pretty close to what inflation is “supposed to be”.
Are you expecting or desiring deflation?
Posted on 2/5/24 at 9:33 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
First of all, I like Chairman Powell. Conservative, Cautious and definitely gets it
Powell: ‘The US is on an unsustainable fiscal path’
quote:
“The U.S. federal government’s on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it is unsustainable. I don’t think that’s at all controversial,” Powell said when asked if the national debt is a danger to the economy.
So to answer your question...there will be no soft landing. We are just delaying the inevitable by printing money. Just because they aren't printing as fast as they were previously doesn't mean they stopped. Even with rates raised, money is still cheap and there are still unhealthy levels of inflation.
Raise the rates to 10% and get the show on the road I say.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 9:36 am to SingleMalt1973
quote:
SingleMalt1973
My favorite bottle of single malt has almost (fricking) doubled.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 9:38 am to SingleMalt1973
quote:
who,doesn’t want to go,to a Super Bowl party with 5 whole,chickens from Sam’s instead of some wings?
Jake and Elwood Blues.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 9:47 am to Jcorye1
quote:
Aka not fixed. If a boat is leaking, lessening the leak isn't fixing it, it's a patch job that will eventually implode. Obviously inflation will occur, but it's comical to me people want to say "it's fixed" when it's gone from nuclear level shite to horrendous shite.
It’s almost there, and as I mentioned, it’s trending the right way. Wages are helping everyone with milder inflation. 3.3% isn’t horrendous.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 10:11 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
So did the fed really fix inflation
What they've done is make all the price increases over the past 3 years permanent. "Fixing it" would be deflation and prices going back down. Interest rates will go down eventually but this higher cost of living is very likely here to stay. Bidenomics.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 11:56 am to jrbjr
quote:
The last time the US had negative inflation, or deflation, where consumer prices decrease, was 2007-2008. That time is known as the Great Recession. We don’t want to go back to that kind of economy.
Except in this case, we do want deflation. The hyperinflation we've seen since COVID must retract.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 12:06 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
Inflation going down just means prices are going up less rapidly. They'll likely never go back down. That's deflation.
It’s like all these people who expect slowed inflation to cause prices to roll back never took a single economics or business class. Bunch of art and gender studies majors?
Posted on 2/5/24 at 12:12 pm to fischd1
quote:
You cannot be that stupid to think inflation has gone down. Everything is still very expensive.
Damn.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 12:40 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
The hyperinflation we've seen since COVID
Don’t ever accuse libs of being melodramatic about shite lol.
And you actually want deflation?
Posted on 2/5/24 at 1:08 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Don’t ever accuse libs of being melodramatic about shite lol.
And you actually want deflation?
Of course. Deflation is absolutely needed right now. Goods have increased at a much higher pace than wages.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 1:12 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:Prices will never drop.
Except in this case, we do want deflation. The hyperinflation we've seen since COVID must retract
Never forget the “experts” said it was just “transitory” inflation back when it started in 2021 lol.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 1:22 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
inflation is still high if you can't see that you don't live in reality
Posted on 2/5/24 at 1:27 pm to Aubie Spr96
quote:
That’s what kills me about ‘slowing inflation’. Is it slowing down? Maybe. Have prices dramatically increased over the last several years and are in no way coming down? Absolutely.
Prices are never going back to how they were. That would be deflation and it would be a sign the economy is very bad.
Posted on 2/5/24 at 1:29 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
Of course. Deflation is absolutely needed right now. Goods have increased at a much higher pace than wages.
And the opposite would be true with deflation, wages would decrease much more dramatically than prices..
Posted on 2/5/24 at 1:30 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:not in the past 12 months.
Goods have increased at a much higher pace than wages.
Wages have outpaced inflation since late 2022.
Posted on 2/6/24 at 12:08 am to slackster
Deflation would be a great thing. I understand the economy and what the effects would be. Look to Switzerland who had deflation for 5 years and their economy was just fine. I can guarantee that deflation in the US would be a great thing for the next few years.
Housing prices would decrease. The cost to build houses would decrease. More people could buy houses. Banks would still make money and so would Wall Street.
Grocery prices would decrease. The middle class and poor could afford groceries to buy and buy other goods and services that are now cheaper. The base of the economy would expand. More jobs would be created across the board. People would feel wealthier and less credit would be needed by the working poor. In turn their health would improve and families would be able to spend more time together.
The only people who prefer inflation are the bankers and elite. It’s the only way they can make sure you don’t accumulate enough money to ever get away from being a serf.
I wrote a paper on the trade war with China 10 years before the trade war actually happened. I went into significant detail on how to win and the outcome that would occur if the steps were taken. The one major step that wasn’t secured was refunding/refinancing our long term debt at the low rates. It would have extended the time lines for social security and Medicaid.
The masses are pissed off because prices are down. Yet you hear the new talking point that the economy is great. It’s fools gold.
My prediction- Trump will win and the market will collapse. The rug will be pulled out once he wins and he will be blamed for it. Their will be pain in the form of job losses and bankruptcies. Think 2008-2009 x’s 10. It will last at least three years. There will be a socialist push for basic universal income. If that passes, the country is over. AI won’t sustain us.
Housing prices would decrease. The cost to build houses would decrease. More people could buy houses. Banks would still make money and so would Wall Street.
Grocery prices would decrease. The middle class and poor could afford groceries to buy and buy other goods and services that are now cheaper. The base of the economy would expand. More jobs would be created across the board. People would feel wealthier and less credit would be needed by the working poor. In turn their health would improve and families would be able to spend more time together.
The only people who prefer inflation are the bankers and elite. It’s the only way they can make sure you don’t accumulate enough money to ever get away from being a serf.
I wrote a paper on the trade war with China 10 years before the trade war actually happened. I went into significant detail on how to win and the outcome that would occur if the steps were taken. The one major step that wasn’t secured was refunding/refinancing our long term debt at the low rates. It would have extended the time lines for social security and Medicaid.
The masses are pissed off because prices are down. Yet you hear the new talking point that the economy is great. It’s fools gold.
My prediction- Trump will win and the market will collapse. The rug will be pulled out once he wins and he will be blamed for it. Their will be pain in the form of job losses and bankruptcies. Think 2008-2009 x’s 10. It will last at least three years. There will be a socialist push for basic universal income. If that passes, the country is over. AI won’t sustain us.
Posted on 2/6/24 at 4:59 am to Lickitty Split
quote:
Deflation would be a great thing. I understand the economy and what the effects would be. Look to Switzerland who had deflation for 5 years and their economy was just fine. I can guarantee that deflation in the US would be a great thing for the next few years. Housing prices would decrease. The cost to build houses would decrease. More people could buy houses. Banks would still make money and so would Wall Street. Grocery prices would decrease. The middle class and poor could afford groceries to buy and buy other goods and services that are now cheaper. The base of the economy would expand. More jobs would be created across the board. People would feel wealthier and less credit would be needed by the working poor. In turn their health would improve and families would be able to spend more time together. The only people who prefer inflation are the bankers and elite. It’s the only way they can make sure you don’t accumulate enough money to ever get away from being a serf. I wrote a paper on the trade war with China 10 years before the trade war actually happened. I went into significant detail on how to win and the outcome that would occur if the steps were taken. The one major step that wasn’t secured was refunding/refinancing our long term debt at the low rates. It would have extended the time lines for social security and Medicaid. The masses are pissed off because prices are down. Yet you hear the new talking point that the economy is great. It’s fools gold. My prediction- Trump will win and the market will collapse. The rug will be pulled out once he wins and he will be blamed for it. Their will be pain in the form of job losses and bankruptcies. Think 2008-2009 x’s 10. It will last at least three years. There will be a socialist push for basic universal income. If that passes, the country is over. AI won’t sustain us.
Spot on.
Thanks to decoupling from the gold standard, and the shite monetary policy after that, we are fast on our way towards becoming a relatively dirt poor serf class.
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