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Started By
Message
Severe weather threat tomorrow
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:56 pm
quote:
Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward from the Plains on Wednesday morning, becoming oriented from the Upper Midwest to the Southeast by Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the Midwest, and decreasing with southward extent into the southern U.S. At the surface, a cold front extending from WI southwestward into western OK/northwest TX will sweep eastward during the forecast period. By Thursday morning, the front is expected to extend from western NY/PA toward Middle TN, southwestward toward the TX coast. ...Middle TN into the OH Valley Vicinity... Stronger vertical shear will be in place across the region, closer to the core of the upper trough and within the stronger surface pressure gradient associated with a low over Ontario. South/southwesterly low-level flow will bring a narrow corridor of upper 50s and 60s F surface dewpoints northward ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Heating will be limited by cloud cover and possibly early day showers. However, cooling aloft will support modestly steep midlevel lapse rates, and MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg will be possible amid 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Transient supercells and briefly organized clusters could produce isolated strong storms capable of hail and strong gusts. Low-level instability will be limited, but enlarged, favorably curved surface-3 km hodographs suggest a brief tornado also could occur. ...AR into western TN/northern MS Vicinity... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the afternoon across AR and shift east/southeast into western TN and northern MS. Some guidance suggest an increase in hail and strong gust potential will accompany these cells. Stronger heating is expected along this corridor ahead of the front, resulting in steeper low-level lapse rates, while cooling aloft associated with the main upper trough supports steepening mid-level lapse rates. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt and favorable hodographs suggest some rotating cells will be possible. A narrow corridor of relative greater severe potential may exist within this corridor and an upgrade to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks if forecast confidence increases.
May see an upgrade to Slight risk in ar, Tn, North Ms
This post was edited on 10/12/22 at 8:38 am
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:59 pm to deltaland
"Marginal"??
Lame.
Sounds like a Southern Californian panicking over a quarter inch of rain.
Lame.
Sounds like a Southern Californian panicking over a quarter inch of rain.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:59 pm to deltaland
Gonna need at least yellow, delta, before a thread is warranted. At least.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:59 pm to deltaland
Congrats on getting to start a weather thread
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:59 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
:that'sagreenpenisgif:
This post was edited on 10/11/22 at 2:01 pm
Posted on 10/11/22 at 2:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Gonna need at least yellow, delta, before a thread is warranted. At least.
In his country, they say "yellar"
yarp?
Posted on 10/11/22 at 2:05 pm to LegendInMyMind
SMH at rds starting a thread for the shitter that went straight into Central America but not for the shitter invest that's actually in the Gulf.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 2:22 pm to The Boat
quote:
SMH at rds starting a thread for the shitter that went straight into Central America but not for the shitter invest that's actually in the Gulf.
We're on to storms with land under them, baw.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:10 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Gonna need at least yellow, delta, before a thread is warranted. At least.
Well it did say they may upgrade to yellow so I figured why not.
If anything we need the rain
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:36 pm to winkchance
quote:
In his country, they say "yellar"
THE YELLA FELLA: SITTIN’ HIGH IN THE SADDLE
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:42 pm to winkchance
quote:
Marginal = Severe?
These weather threads has become one of the weirdest phenomenon on this board.
They seemed to have intensified this past spring when those fortnightly fronts were coming off the Rockies producing speculative weather threads where a couple of posters would indulge their "hobby", only to have each and everyone of them ultimately turning into f'cking weather reports from Kansas.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:48 pm to deltaland
Cancel school for a cool front season
[ON]
OFF
[ON]
OFF
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:49 pm to deltaland
It'd be nice to get some fricking rain in SELA
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:51 pm to deltaland
Water falling from the sky? What sorcery is this?
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:51 pm to The Boat
Hurricane season is over for the northern gulf, stronger and stronger cold fronts pushing through weekly for the next month
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:51 pm to Amadeo
quote:
only to have each and everyone of them ultimately turning into f'cking weather reports from Kansas.
Liar.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 3:53 pm to udtiger
quote:
It'd be nice to get some fricking rain in SELA
motherfricker, I had plenty from July through the first week of September. frick off with the "we need rain" bullshite.
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