re: Severe weather threat tomorrow

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that'sagreenpenisgif:

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Perhaps if we’re talking about a serious case of peyronie’s disease.

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SMH at rds starting a thread for the shitter that went straight into Central America but not for the shitter invest that's actually in the Gulf.

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We have a named storm in the gulf and I found out about from somewhere other than TD.

What is this world coming to.

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We have a named storm in the gulf and I found out about from somewhere other than TD.

What is this world coming to.

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There's a reason, and that reason is this:

Even the NHC is struggling to take that windfield graphic seriously.

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And to think you chastised me for making the thread

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There's still no yellow on the outlook, baw. This thread is anarchy, and I'm to blame for posting in it.

Ryan Hall will throw up a scary graphic for a warm (or cold) breeze.

It’s coming I can feel it. I’m just ahead of the curve

Yep Karl was the last ditch hope for the northern Gulf; but wind shear is too strong to his North.

Low's in the upper 40's mid next week should shut down Tropical Storm season too

Well looky there

Slight risk expanded



May actually get a narrow corridor of ENH depending on how conditions evolve this morning

Mid-South to Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A band of thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of the Ozark
Plateau, just ahead of a surface cold front. Bulk of CAM guidance
suggests this leading activity will persist to the east-southeast
through the day towards the Mid-South portion of the MS Valley,
likely aided by low-level warm theta-e advection from the southern
Great Plains atop an initially dry boundary layer over AR.
Pronounced boundary-layer heating across the Lower MS Valley should
yield intensification of the band towards early afternoon with
potential for a QLCS to evolve into the TN Valley later. The
initially bifurcated low-level moisture plume suggests that
relatively large surface temperature/dew point spreads would favor
scattered damaging winds as the primary severe threat during the
afternoon.

A second round of severe thunderstorm development is anticipated
towards late afternoon near the intersection of trailing outflow
from the lead activity with the lagging cold front, as it impinges
on a moderately buoyant air mass over the Lower MS Valley where
MLCAPE should reach 1500-2000 J/kg. Despite initially veered and
modest low-level flow, remnants of the Great Plains elevated mixed
layer in conjunction with adequate deep-layer speed shear will favor
semi-discrete storms, including a few supercells. Large hail will be
most likely in the first few hours of development before convection
tends to consolidate into additional southeast-moving line segments
this evening, with a primary threat of damaging winds and a couple
brief tornadoes.

...OH/KY...
The eastern fork of the bifurcated low-level moisture plume
emanating from the Gulf is expected to advect north across
central/eastern KY to southern OH. Pre-frontal thunderstorm activity
ongoing across the Mid-MS Valley will likely persist east and may
intensify as it impinges on this eastern moisture plume. Confidence
is low with respect to the degree of destabilization into this
portion of the OH Valley given the abundant upstream
precipitation/cloud cover. Should a confined corridor of weak to
modest MLCAPE occur later this afternoon, adequate low-level
hodograph curvature will exist for a supercell or two capable of a
brief tornado and locally damaging winds.

Thread is shite. Looks to be dry as your gmaws pussy today