re: Severe weather outbreak Central and Southern Plains States - DFW, OKC, Wichita

A few areas look to have a higher tornado risk this afternoon based on the mesoscale evolution this morning. Up in Kansas, who cares about Kansas, there is an outflow boundary that is separate from the warm front.

Central Oklahoma storms may have left some boundaries around that could increase local threat.

Then N. Texas will have better winds through the column and an increasing LLJ since no morning convection down south. Storms should line out in this area but any discrete storms could cause issues.

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rds dc

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I appreciate you throwing your knowledge in here, I always end up learning something.

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Central Oklahoma storms may have left some boundaries around that could increase local threat.

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Wondering if they'll mix out before the dryline pushes in personally.

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Then N. Texas will have better winds through the column and an increasing LLJ since no morning convection down south. Storms should line out in this area but any discrete storms could cause issues.

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I'm thinking the same thing. Thinking it'll line out by DFW, but going to be nervous afternoon for points west if something breaks the cap.

It's sad I trust the OT for DFW weather more than DFW weather broadcasts....

What am I looking at with those numbers? Pressure changes?

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Air temperature in red, dew point in green.

The "dry line" is the green front looking feature pictured.

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Dry Line is the front right?

What's the significance of the dew point in storms like this? I mean, I know what a dew point is but I have no idea of what a higher/lower dew point does with respect to severe weather.

Some of you are really proficient in this area.

Think of the dew point as a measure of water vapor in the air. Water vapor is lighter than the nitrogen and oxygen that makes up the majority of our air, so it is more buoyant; therefore, more readily rises.

Water also has a very high latent heat of vaporization, which is just a measure of the extra energy water picks up when it goes from liquid to gas. When it cools as it rises, the water vapor turns into a liquid and releases that energy as heat. Which in turn warms the air around it, and the warm air rises.

Thus you have more rapid updrafts and when you get them spinning...you get tornados. It'll be easier if you're from the coast to think of a hurricane. The warm water puts more vapor in the atmosphere. The hurricane picks it up and condenses it, increasing the driving force to raise it up.

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Was wondering the same thing. I thought the pressures were more important.

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Without going too deep into vapor/liquid equilibriums, the lower the pressure the more vapor can be liberated. Also, lower pressure indicates rising air. Air flows from high pressure to low pressure (basically, it's really chemical potential but I don't even want to know that so I'll spare you). Low pressure sucks in that warm moist air to fuel the storms and if the gradient is tight enough, the speed of the inflow helps spin up cyclones.

Cliffs: low pressures provide lift for the warm air to condense and fuel rain/storms.

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The rightward jog of the line just above the surface shows the warmer air above that "caps" the storms from rising.

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perhaps I dreamed this... but I swore 1 of TWC peeps said the "cap" was going to dissipate later in the afternoon/evening and that would open up some tornado potential

I tend to watch TVN storm chasing during severe weather outbreaks and there are usually 5 - 10 chasers streaming live video or offline waiting to stream live. Right now there are over 50 chasers between OK and KS who are streaming or about to stream. Doesn't look good.

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perhaps I dreamed this... but I swore 1 of TWC peeps said the "cap" was going to dissipate later in the afternoon/evening and that would open up some tornado potential

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You heard correctly. Im showing the cap to somewhat explain why the storms are going to be later in the evening.