- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
2
Posted on 1/10/20 at 9:37 am to MrLarson
Gotcha. 
Posted on 1/10/20 at 9:50 am to biggsc
Mesoscale Discussion 0010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Areas affected...Oklahoma and adjacent portions of south
central/southeastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1...
Valid 101512Z - 101645Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 1 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for supercells capable of producing tornadoes may
increase as early as Noon to 2 PM CST, mainly east of the Interstate
35 corridor of Oklahoma, where trends are being monitored for a new
severe weather watch. Otherwise, scattered vigorous thunderstorm
activity may pose a risk for severe hail across northwestern,
central and eastern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas into early
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Mid/upper forcing for ascent, associated with an
initial perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing
progressing into the southern Rockies, appears to be contributing to
the ongoing increase in thunderstorm activity across Oklahoma and
adjacent portions of the southern Plains. Strongest activity has
been initially focused above/to the cool side of a quasi-stationary
frontal zone now extending across northwestern Oklahoma into
southeastern Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks vicinity. However,
considerable new thunderstorm development is now underway within the
warm sector, across central/southern Oklahoma.
Even within the warm sector, storms appear initially rooted above
the boundary layer, within a zone of stronger mid-level warm
advection (roughly around 700 mb). South of this zone, warmer and
more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air probably will inhibit
convective development in the near term.
With the northeastward progression of the more favorable large-scale
ascent, the warm sector thunderstorm development seems likely to
become more focused/shift east of the Interstate 35 corridor of
Oklahoma by 17-19Z. As it does, continuing slow surface warming may
become increasingly conducive to boundary-layer based storm
development, in the presence of strong deep layer shear supportive
of supercells. Models suggest that this will also coincided with
strengthening south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (up to 50+ kt along an
axis across eastern Oklahoma), and associated enlargement of
low-level hodographs may become increasingly conducive to tornado
development, in addition to a continuing risk for severe hail.
..Kerr.. 01/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36449933 37439594 36699496 35009470 34149548 34329778
35399889 36449933
Posted on 1/10/20 at 9:55 am to biggsc
quote:
No way to get your flight moved up?
Oh, the storm's gonna do that... and down... and right... and up again...
I'd try to reschedule it. I'd want nothing to do with being in the air over the Texarkana area from later this afternoon to tomorrow.
This post was edited on 1/10/20 at 9:58 am
Posted on 1/10/20 at 9:57 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this won't be as bad as they're saying it will be
I sure as hell hope you aren't related to Peej
This post was edited on 1/10/20 at 9:58 am
Posted on 1/10/20 at 9:58 am to MrLarson
you going to sip on some muscadine wine baw?
Posted on 1/10/20 at 9:58 am to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
Look at all of the updraft helicity streaks on the 12z HRRR across the southeast through tomorrow:
Not saying it won't be bad but the HRRR tends to favor individual cells in the longer range, so it spits out those nice clean streaks.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 9:59 am to rds dc
If I work in Plano and have a 30 minute drive home to McKinney, what is the latest possible but still safe time to leave work for home and avoid getting stuck in hail?
Trying to get my car home and in the garage before any hail storms.
Trying to get my car home and in the garage before any hail storms.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:02 am to shel311
I'm in Fort Worth and everything I've heard is 2pm and on and most of the bad stuff starting around 5.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:04 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
This is the fourth or fifth run showing that now. Maybe there's something to it.
Maybe but it also keeps shifting back. First time I noticed it, the model showed it happening on the 17th-18th, then 21-22, now the 22nd-24th.
Seems like when they keep getting pushed back like that, nothing ever develops.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:07 am to LSUvegasbombed
quote:
you going to sip on some muscadine wine baw?
Probably some Belvedere and OJ since were all gonna die.
That updraft over Memphis looks nasty
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:09 am to shel311
Its gonna get spooky here starting at 2.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:16 am to 50_Tiger
quote:Thanks!
Its gonna get spooky here starting at 2.
Looks like I'm leaving work at 12p.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:19 am to East Coast Band
quote:
quote:
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this won't be as bad as they're saying it will be
I sure as hell hope you aren't related to Peej
Nope, no relation at all.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:26 am to TDsngumbo
Well if the most concerning threat is bad straight line winds then I certainly think we're set up for the general public to complain that it wasn't "as bad" as predicted. A couple of high end tornadoes will get far more public buzz than widespread but not-catastrophic wind damage, even if the damage is more costly and over a far broader area.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:28 am to Pettifogger
all I ask is that my electricity go out after my kids are asleep
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:29 am to Pettifogger
quote:
Well if the most concerning threat is bad straight line winds then I certainly think we're set up for the general public to complain that it wasn't "as bad" as predicted. A couple of high end tornadoes will get far more public buzz than widespread but not-catastrophic wind damage, even if the damage is more costly and over a far broader area.
Yep, wind damage and hail are annually more costly but they don't create good photo ops of trucks in trees or bare slabs. However, the people that experience the high end straight line winds over the next two days won't forget this anytime soon.
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:30 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
What's the thought on discrete cells popping off ahead of the mainline for NWLA? When I went to bed last night it sounded like that particular concern was diminishing and moving more towards straight line winds but this morning the language has a little bit back towards including those discrete cells.
This post was edited on 1/10/20 at 10:31 am
Posted on 1/10/20 at 10:31 am to rds dc
quote:
Yep, wind damage and hail are annually more costly but they don't create good photo ops of trucks in trees or bare slabs. However, the people that experience the high end straight line winds over the next two days won't forget this anytime soon.
cars that now look like golf balls always make for good photos in my opinion
Page 14 of 51
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News