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Started By
Message
re: Severe Weather - Today - LA, MS, AL, NW FL
Posted on 4/17/19 at 11:36 am to Mr Perfect
Posted on 4/17/19 at 11:36 am to Mr Perfect
1:00 PM tomorrow afternoon
Dont you know anything?
Dont you know anything?
1
Posted on 4/17/19 at 11:39 am to slackster
Austin outlook tonight.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 11:41 am to tgrbaitn08
not seeing that. but okay dude. thx
Posted on 4/17/19 at 11:44 am to slackster
Drew in roughly where the low is, broad as it is. Brown line is roughly where a dry line is setting up. Got sub 40 dew points behind and pushing 60 in front. Then the green line is roughly where the 65F dew point readings are. Cold front setting up back in New Mexico and north.
The dry line will serve to spark storms as it approaches this afternoon. It's the section in front of the dry line that is the concern for hail. Big CAPE pushing 3500 J/kg this afternoon likely in our 65+ dew point sector.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 11:46 am to Duke
looks like it's hanging to the left about to take a piss in Oklahoma.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 11:47 am to Duke
How are we looking for the Starkville area tomorrow? Really don't feel like cancelling my late night plans.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 11:49 am to NorthEndZone
Here is a summary of the last event. Louisiana lucked out on tornadoes but there were 50+ overall including an EF3 in Texas.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 11:58 am to Box Geauxrilla
When is this evening supposed to be?
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:01 pm to Paul Allen
So Duke. If I follow hail probability is higher where brown line meets green line?
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:10 pm to SATNIGHTS
The brown line will act more like a little push to get that more energetic air rising. The where of it, in terms of exactly where they form up is still a question. The highest risk though, yes, will be where those higher dew points currently are. Especially where you can get some sunlight to warm it up more.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:12 pm to Duke
Steve Caparotta, Ph.D.
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@SteveWAFB
2m2 minutes ago
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Forecast soundings for early afternoon tomorrow show a lot of turning (wind shear) in the atmosphere locally. That's one of the reasons we're concerned about the tornado potential tomorrow.
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Verified account
@SteveWAFB
2m2 minutes ago
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Forecast soundings for early afternoon tomorrow show a lot of turning (wind shear) in the atmosphere locally. That's one of the reasons we're concerned about the tornado potential tomorrow.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:14 pm to MorbidTheClown
Now thats the sickle shape Duke always mentions 
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:16 pm to 50_Tiger
That 385 on the 0-1 km shear is dangerous stuff.
At least it's blobby convection. A big wind threat regardless of storm mode.
At least it's blobby convection. A big wind threat regardless of storm mode.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:17 pm to 50_Tiger
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:18 pm to Duke
quote:
The dry line will serve to spark storms as it approaches this afternoon. It's the section in front of the dry line that is the concern for hail. Big CAPE pushing 3500 J/kg this afternoon likely in our 65+ dew point sector.
Interesting setup for DFW today. There is a disturbance moving across the state now that could set off a round of storms in the next couple of hours. As that disturbance exits there will be some stabilization (subsidence) in its wake. That may shutdown the dryline (good) or may only allow a couple of cells to fire (bad). Then the front will overtake the dryline setting off another round. So 3 rounds to watch for - tornado threat greatest with 1st, then large hail possible with all storms.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:21 pm to rds dc
rds is the first wave still scheduled for rush hour (5pm - later)?
This post was edited on 4/17/19 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:34 pm to 50_Tiger
I'm scared just like everyone else on this board who drove through this area last week.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:35 pm to MorbidTheClown
quote:
....LA...MS...AL...Western FL Panhandle...
Storms are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning along the cold
front/outflow, from southern AR into eastern TX. Some of these
storms could produce strong wind gusts or marginal hail.
Later in the day, a strong surge of deeper low-level moisture will
spread across LA and MS, coincident with 850 mb winds increasing to
over 50 kt. Both instability and shear will increase, and conditions
will become favorable for supercells and tornadoes. Forecast
soundings indicate effective SRH on the order of 300-400 m2/s2
across the entire area. Thus these midday storms may be severe with
a few tornadoes possible should they remain cellular.
Meanwhile, the activity along the cold front is expected to
intensify as it encounters this stronger instability into central
and eastern LA, and continuing across central and eastern MS during
the day. By late afternoon, an intense QLCS is forecast, likely
absorbing the earlier activity and producing corridors of
destructive winds and tornadoes. The most intense activity may also
spread into western Alabama, with a gradual decrease in overall
intensity overnight across eastern AL and into FL.
Early convection due to warm advection in the 15-18Z period lends
some uncertainty as to air mass quality for latter-day convection
with the front. If the rain is too widespread across LA and southern
MS, it could temper instability for the expected QLCS. On the other
hand, if the midday activity remains more cellular, several
tornadoes could occur. As such, will defer possible upgrade to
Moderate Risk to upcoming Day 1 updates.
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:37 pm to slackster
quote:
As such, will defer possible upgrade to
Moderate Risk
Posted on 4/17/19 at 12:39 pm to MrLSU
Looks like some local BR school districts are considering closing tomorrow
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