re: Severe Weather - Today - LA, MS, AL, NW FL

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rds is the first wave still scheduled for rush hour (5pm - later)?

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5PM HRRR reflectivity:




7PM:



Tyler, TX

Yep calling some old college friends right now that are still in Tyler.

Lots of trees in that area and floods easily on South Broadway.

The enhanced area and hatched area were expanded farther east in the latest update.

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Here they go with the school cancellations and early dismissals. I’m convinced teachers are behind a lot of this hype. The scare tactics never seem to be as strong on the weekends.

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Actually it is helicopter parents blowing the local board's hotline up that influences administrators more than teachers/students begging for a day off.

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here is a disturbance moving across the state now that could set off a round of storms in the next couple of hours.

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So it's producing the cloud cover over east Texas I'm guessing? Subtle feature that. Should keep the daytime heating down though, hopefully enough not to erode the cap present from the DFW sounding this morning. Also, the

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As that disturbance exits there will be some stabilization (subsidence) in its wake.

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Then the front will overtake the dryline setting off another round

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The cold front is making decent time. Looks like it's pulling into the panhandle from the noon surface obs. Dryline terribly far in front, a line let's say from about Childress working down toward Del Rio.

Looks like a good afternoon of "study", reading some SPC discussions and watching this develop.

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Alabama threat doesn't get going until the late evening on Thursday

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I thought the same thing. I'm going to be in Point Clear this weekend. We were supposed to leave when the kids got out of school tomorrow, but I decided we'll leave at 9 or so in order to get off the road.

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Strong tornadoes south of I-10 are rare. Hmmm

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true

but the 2/7/17 EF3 in NO East shows they certainly are possible

Is I-10 some sort of invisible tornado barrier? Seems like all the big tornadoes are north of it.

Looking at the mesoscale models, northshore up into southern Mississippi (like between I55 and I59) all throw up convection ahead of the main line. That's where I'm thinking the greatest risk shows up as of now. Seeing some off shore convection that might serve to bring in more stable air for southern parts of SELa but looks pretty wide open coming toward southern Mississippi.

Just speculation on my end, because in general the soundings are pretty stout. Especially concerning shear and getting that low level jet rocking. Whole region definitely at risk, just thinking aloud about where everything might come together the best.

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I thought schools were out this week for Easter????

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Some districts are next week