re: Severe Weather - Today - LA, MS, AL, NW FL

Word is EBR has cancelled for tomorrow.

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No one has a storm shelter. Where can you run around here. Id bet most schools are safer than the homes and trailers many live in. No one's home around here is prepared. I realize this is about deferring liability. If I was running a school Id close it to cover my arse for sure. It all about if you are lucky enough to not be in the path of something catastrophic.

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That's all true, but knowing/preparing as best you can is better than sticking your head in the sand.

Also, if a school is going to be used for a shelter, it's probably not a good idea to be having school there at the same time.

Lastly, it's usually about transportation. If this is coming through in the middle of the day, closing doesn't make as much sense. However, conditions will quickly deteriorate around noon and will stay that way in much of southern LA until 6ish. Adding a bunch of kids/parents in busses/cars to the roads at that time is avoidable.

Enterprise tornado This is why they let schools out

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SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for development of supercells by 22Z (5:00 pm CDT) over north central TX. Very large hail appears to be the main threat, but isolated damaging wind and a tornado are also possible.

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he dryline continues to mix eastward into western portion of north central TX this afternoon. Diabatic warming within the downstream warm sector, steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates and dewpoints in the low 60s F have contributed to a corridor of moderate instability with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Water vapor imagery shows a zone of mid-upper level drying/subsidence spreading into north central TX in wake of a leading shortwave trough. The subsidence and a remnant capping inversion within base of the elevated mixed layer (sampled by the 18Z Fort Worth RAOB) lends uncertainty to the timing extent of thunderstorm initiation this afternoon.

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DFW weather balloon this afternoon showing a bit of a cap in place (keeps air from surface from rising). Potentially keeping many cells from firing. Fingers crossed.

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However, it remains possible that at least a couple of storms might initiate along the dryline where strong convergence and deep mixing through the inversion layer exists. Should the storms develop, effective bulk shear from 45-50 kt would support supercells with very large hail the main threat. Low-level shear and size of 0-1 km hodographs will remain relatively modest which should limit overall tornado threat. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

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Brother has been here this week but needs to be home (Lafayette) before 4:00 tomorrow. Definitely safer for him to leave Dallas now but would be driving through where all the cells are developing.

I haven’t been following this so I would like some input from some people who have. I need to drive from Houston to New Orleans. I get off tonight at 9 and would rather not drive then but is it looking that bad that I shouldn’t wait until I wake up to get on the road?

I see em too. Honestly, doesn't look like much on radar. There are eyes on it though, so it's on the ground.

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I haven’t been following this so I would like some input from some people who have. I need to drive from Houston to New Orleans. I get off tonight at 9 and would rather not drive then but is it looking that bad that I shouldn’t wait until I wake up to get on the road?

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Leaving any later than like 6AM would put you potentially on the road as storms start popping up in south-central LA.

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I might be the last one in the office. Apparently after school care places are wanting to lock it down by 4PM. Sports cancelled, even indoor stuff.

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Looks like it might be all for naught, but that wouldn't be a bad thing.