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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:54 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:54 pm to lsuman25
quote:
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
So what is the storm surge scale?
I assume “UNSURVIVABLE” is the worst
Where is “LIFE THREATENING” on the scale?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:54 pm to rds dc
Philippe Papin:
quote:
Convective structure remains uncertain in #Sally's forecast. Will convection rotate upshear & lead to axis-symmetrization? In moderate VWS this process is more stochastic (random). Timing on if/when this occurs is key too.
With ~36h before landfall, a tricky intensity forecast.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:55 pm to rds dc
It looks like another attempt to fire convection near the center.


Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:56 pm to rds dc
I'm intrigued by that spin in the lower left corner of that gif
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:57 pm to rds dc
quote:
It looks like another attempt to fire convection near the center.
Upshear it appears too. Hopefully it can’t make it around.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:57 pm to Cosmo
quote:
So what is the storm surge scale?
I assume “UNSURVIVABLE” is the worst
Where is “LIFE THREATENING” on the scale?
Somewhere below LUDICROUS
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:58 pm to rt3
quote:
I'm intrigued by that spin in the lower left corner of that gif
Thats the thing the NHC has moving towards the Bay of Campeche
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:58 pm to rt3
quote:
I'm intrigued by that spin in the lower left corner of that gif
It looks like it is trying to wrap that new convection.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:02 pm to slackster
quote:
I once listened to Kathleen Blanco give a commencement speech
But why?
Did you break some law in New Orleans and this was part of your sentence?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:04 pm to Cosmo
That's what dumped a bit of rain on us yesterday right?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:04 pm to 91TIGER
quote:
Somewhere below LUDICROUS

Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:06 pm to pwejr88
quote:
I’m in STG too. You should cut it right this second. *Rain starting in our area early evening and won’t stop (off and on) until Thursday.
Just cut mine lfg
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:07 pm to Hangover Haven
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:07 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
But why?
Did you break some law in New Orleans and this was part of your sentence?
Didn’t know the speaker until arrival. Youngest brother’s graduation.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:10 pm to NorthEndZone
Okay now that the 12Z Euro is out we roughly have these 48 hour positions (42 hours from now):
HWRF - Chandeleur Sound / Rigolets
GFS - Just North of Venice
Euro - Just west of SW Pass
The average is right over the River
ETA: I fixed the GFS location to just north of Venice
HWRF - Chandeleur Sound / Rigolets
GFS - Just North of Venice
Euro - Just west of SW Pass
The average is right over the River
ETA: I fixed the GFS location to just north of Venice
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:12 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Okay now that the 12Z Euro is out we roughly have these 48 hour positions (42 hours from now):
HWRF - Chandeleur Sound
GFS - Just east of Venice
Euro - Just west of SW Pass
The average is right over the River
Which of these models has been the most accurate this season? It always seems like some models just have bad years.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:17 pm to TypoKnig
quote:
Which of these models has been the most accurate this season? It always seems like some models just have bad years.
Mixed bag, just split the difference at this point.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:19 pm to Duke
At this point I’m really thinking Sally will be a bust. Too much shear. Lopsided storm with MS taking the brunt of the rainfall. Nothing major in terms of wind.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:19 pm to rmnldr
quote:
At this point I’m really thinking Sally will be a bust. Too much shear. Lopsided storm with MS taking the brunt of the rainfall. Nothing major in terms of wind.
Why do yall feel the need to post shite like this
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