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Started By
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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:21 pm to geauxtigers87
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:21 pm to geauxtigers87
3
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:22 pm to rmnldr
quote:
At this point I’m really thinking Sally will be a bust. Too much shear. Lopsided storm with MS taking the brunt of the rainfall. Nothing major in terms of wind.
Be careful. The shear is expected to drop some later on and it will be able to get stronger pretty quickly if it can get vertically aligned. I'm not going to take too much optimism in the structure as of now. Hope it's still tilted in the morning and we can eliminate the highest strength potential.
Two straight tilted HWRFs give me some hope though.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:24 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Damn, that's alot of rain
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:24 pm to GEAUXT
The center of the path is directly my house haha
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:24 pm to EXPLAYER
quote:
Not as deep on Gause but you are correct
We have a camp on the West Pearl on Porter's Island.. You can tell the surge came up the river fast and washed out fast as well. There were a bunch of dead red fish all around the camp. I-10 protected a lot on the North side believe it or not..
I knew a guy who rode out Katrina in a house boat by Indian Village, he said when the boat got over the power lines is when he got scared...
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:25 pm to jsk020
quote:
The center of the path is directly my house haha
Safest place to be this far out...
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:25 pm to geauxtigers87
quote:
Why do yall feel the need to post shite like this
Cuz I can post my opinion and I don’t give a frick what you think about it.
It’s not like my words have any impact on whatever the frick it’s gonna do.
quote:
Two straight tilted HWRFs give me some hope though
Yeah I’m putting a lot of faith into HWRF after Laura and Hannah. I think it’s gonna be correct.
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:27 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
The Pearl River Basin is going to have a rough time given those rainfall estimates and the storm surge. The rainwater will have nowhere to go.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:27 pm to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:31 pm to TypoKnig
quote:
The Pearl River Basin is going to have a rough time
I was just coming to post this. 6"+ all the way up the watershed will be bad.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:31 pm to Duke
Outflow is really fanning on that south side but there's still a wall on the north side.
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:34 pm to rds dc
Mobile or Baton Rouge after Landfall 
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:35 pm to TypoKnig
quote:
he Pearl River Basin is going to have a rough time given those rainfall estimates and the storm surge. The rainwater will have nowhere to go.
Good thing the West Pearl will be below 7'... Flood stage is at 19'...
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:35 pm to DVinBR
There is a 100% chance it won’t be a BR landfall. FYI
ETA: sweet edit. Lol
ETA: sweet edit. Lol
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:36 pm to DVinBR
That TVCN shift back east again?
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 1:40 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:37 pm to Drew Orleans
There is not a 100% chance of happening or not happening this far out.....
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:38 pm to DVinBR
TVCN shifted quite a bit back East due to GFS shift back east. Look for the NHC OFCL forecast to shift at least a nudge to the east at 4 PM. They may only move it slightly as they like to see run-to-run consistency before shifting the official forecast.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:38 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
There is not a 100% chance of happening or not happening this far out.....
It's 100% it won't landfall at Baton Rouge.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:39 pm to NorthEndZone
It also looks like the TVCN starts moving it northwestward soon
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:39 pm to Impotent Waffle
He said BR landfall you dolts.
Downvote away.
Downvote away.
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