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Started By
Message
re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:40 am to Duke
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:40 am to Duke
The hurricane force winds are only forecast to extend 25 miles to the NE and only 15 miles to the NW.
This is a very small storm from a wind standpoint. Rain and surge will extend much farther than that however.
If the current forecast holds, only areas very close to the center on the west side will see hurricane force winds.
As always, forecast is subject to change.
This is a very small storm from a wind standpoint. Rain and surge will extend much farther than that however.
If the current forecast holds, only areas very close to the center on the west side will see hurricane force winds.
As always, forecast is subject to change.
2
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:42 am to The Boat
Gorgeous falls ..
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:43 am to rds dc
LLC once again getting out ahead of the deepest convection. Also, notice the thin band of storms moving onshore near St. George Island and then off to the NW, watch how the tops of those storms race off to the SSE indicating significant shear is still present.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:44 am to NorthEndZone
quote:
The hurricane force winds are only forecast to extend 25 miles to the NE and only 15 miles to the NW.
Thanks for that information. That's helpful to me.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:45 am to rds dc
Keep it up mother nature!
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:45 am to The Boat
quote:
That’s percent chance of experiencing winds over 38 mph, bruh
Thx for the clarification, bruh
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:46 am to rds dc
As expected. The shear will let up as it moves to the west as Sally moves away from it and that’s when it will strengthen.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:49 am to loogaroo
quote:
You got a link for that full screen radar site? The news station I had bookmarked took theirs down.
Thanks in advance!
Nice nationwide radar site
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:49 am to loogaroo
What time does the next report come out? Still nobody offering me any info in Slidell area. Appreciate any help one way or the other!
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:50 am to EXPLAYER
quote:
What time does the next report come out? Still nobody offering me any info in Slidell area. Appreciate any help one way or the other!
TS force winds likely. Hurricane gusts possible. Potential for lots of rain.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:51 am to slackster
Surge in Slidell is something to watch too
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:53 am to rds dc
Interesting run of HWRF coming out right now. So far after 30 hours it is about 15 miles NORTHEAST of its previous run.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:53 am to geauxtigers87
Track is not set in stone. Slidell could still see a direct hit. Latest GFS shows that. Bottom line everyone in the GNO area is on high alert. Please keep it sheared as long as possible.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:54 am to geauxtigers87
T
I am growing increasingly anxious about this
quote:
Surge in Slidell is something to watch too
I am growing increasingly anxious about this
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:54 am to iron banks
I'm surprised schools haven't started canceling yet
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:55 am to EXPLAYER
quote:
What time does the next report come out? Still nobody offering me any info in Slidell area. Appreciate any help one way or the other!
Try the National Weather Service site. type your zip in the search...Forecast Discussion link is at the bottom of the page.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=30.27621000000005&lon=-89.78162999999995#.X15O_mhKhPZ
quote:
000
FXUS64 KLIX 131023
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
523 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020
.DISCUSSION...
Not going to get into a lot of detail, as forecast is pretty much
predicated on impacts associated with current Tropical Storm
Sally. The current NHC forecast is to make landfall late Monday
night or Tuesday as a Category 2 hurricane on the lower southeast
Louisiana coast. Likely to take 24 hours or more to traverse the
CWA with significant storm surge, wind and heavy rainfall impacts.
Hazardous conditions could continue into Wednesday for portions
of the area, due to the expected slow movement of the storm. Most
watches were upgraded to warnings with the 4 am CDT advisory
package, as we are getting into the warning time frame in lower
portions of the coastal parishes.
Any preparations for the storm will be best accomplished today, as
conditions across far southern portions of the area will start
deteriorating late tonight or Monday. For the latest information,
monitor National Hurricane Center advisories, and our Hurricane
Local Statements.
&&
.AVIATION...
Primarily VFR conditions for the forecast period. There could be a
brief period of MVFR to IFR ceilings around sunrise this morning,
most likely at KHUM. Scattered SHRA/TSRA could occur at pretty
much any time today with outer bands associated with Sally.
Highest probabilty at KHUM/KMSY/KNEW, but will carry some mention
of either SHRA or TSRA at most all terminals during the afternoon
hours today. Precipitation would likely produce brief MVFR
ceilings and potentially IFR visibilities. Beyond 06z Monday,
conditions could start showing a deteriorating trend at southern
terminals, but more likely to occur beyond 12z.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions likely to start deteriorating overnight tonight over
most of the coastal waters. Hazardous conditions likely to
continue through Tuesday night into Wednesday for portions of the
coastal waters. Seas well over 20 feet likely east of the track
of Sally over open waters. Conditions should start subsiding
Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 91 74 87 74 / 30 10 50 30
BTR 93 76 91 76 / 30 10 50 30
ASD 92 75 87 73 / 30 20 80 60
MSY 90 79 87 77 / 30 20 70 60
GPT 90 75 84 75 / 30 40 80 70
PQL 93 74 86 74 / 40 40 90 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hurricane Warning for LAZ039-040-049-050-057-058-060>064-068>070-
072.
Hurricane Watch for LAZ056-059-065>067.
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through late Wednesday night
for LAZ037-039-040-049-050-056>072.
Storm Surge Warning for LAZ040-058-062>064-067>070.
Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ037-071.
GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-
572-575-577.
MS...Hurricane Warning for MSZ077-080-081.
Hurricane Watch for MSZ082.
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through late Wednesday night
for MSZ070-071-077-080>082.
Storm Surge Warning for MSZ080>082.
Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ070-071-082.
GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
575-577.
&&
$$
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 11:56 am
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:56 am to geauxtigers87
quote:
I'm surprised schools haven't started canceling yet
Lafourche Parish public schools just did for Mon/Tue (at the least)
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:56 am to geauxtigers87
quote:
I'm surprised schools haven't started canceling yet
WWL Facebook
quote:
My baby ain't getting on Nobody Bus and Going to Nobody School
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 11:57 am
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:57 am to LaBR4
quote:
My baby ain't getting on Nobody Bus and Going to Nobody School
Well, looks like she didn't either.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:58 am to NorthEndZone
I think this models are going to ping pong between a westward track and more towards miss/la border until tomorrow. wouldn't be surprised to see easterly shifts again today.
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