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Started By
Message
Powerball now officially up to 1.4 Billion, up from 1.3
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:17 am
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:17 am
I was on the fence at 1.3, but will buy a few at 1.4 
12
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:20 am to Spilled Milk
The cash payout is now $868M.
The drawing Wednesday should be the first time the expected value of the Powerball is in your favor. For those of you who don't know, a positive expected value indicates a situation where you would expect a profit over the course of many samples. You basically take the cash value (less the purchase price of a ticket) of each Powerball prize and multiply it by the odds to win said prize. You do this for every prize, and then you do this for the odds you will NOT win a prize (-$2 X ~280,450,100 losers our of 292,201,338 possible combinations). You add up all of the products and you arrive at the expected value.
Assuming a single winner (no split jackpot) and only federal taxes (39.6%), the expected value of the Powerball will be a positive number if the cash payout is higher than $832M.
For a single winner, federal taxes, and LA state income taxes, a jackpot of $868M provides an expected value of -$.03. If the jackpot gets to ~$885M the expected value will be higher than $0.
Obviously a split jackpot throws a wrench in to all of this, but this may be the first time in history that the math says you SHOULD purchase a ticket.
The drawing Wednesday should be the first time the expected value of the Powerball is in your favor. For those of you who don't know, a positive expected value indicates a situation where you would expect a profit over the course of many samples. You basically take the cash value (less the purchase price of a ticket) of each Powerball prize and multiply it by the odds to win said prize. You do this for every prize, and then you do this for the odds you will NOT win a prize (-$2 X ~280,450,100 losers our of 292,201,338 possible combinations). You add up all of the products and you arrive at the expected value.
Assuming a single winner (no split jackpot) and only federal taxes (39.6%), the expected value of the Powerball will be a positive number if the cash payout is higher than $832M.
For a single winner, federal taxes, and LA state income taxes, a jackpot of $868M provides an expected value of -$.03. If the jackpot gets to ~$885M the expected value will be higher than $0.
Obviously a split jackpot throws a wrench in to all of this, but this may be the first time in history that the math says you SHOULD purchase a ticket.
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 10:57 am
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:21 am to Spilled Milk
Yeah I'm in
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:21 am to Spilled Milk
You only need to win once.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:26 am to Spilled Milk
After taxes you walk away with $520,000,000 
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:26 am to Chad504boy
Wednesday, I predict 1.6 Billion by the time the drawing happens
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:27 am to Chad504boy
quote:
When is next drawing?
Thursday night at 9pm.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:27 am to Oates Mustache
quote:Last time I post here as well!!
Thursday night at 9pm.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:29 am to Spilled Milk
quote:
I predict 1.6 Billion by the time the drawing happens
Possibly. I'm assuming they're only going to update in full $100M increments at this level. I'd imagine we won't get another update until it is estimated at $1.5B.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:29 am to Crow Pie
I just can't do it. 
It's actually Wednesday night.
It's actually Wednesday night.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:29 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
Thursday night at 9pm.
Trying to get people to wait until after the actual drawing on Wednesday to lessen the chance of a split pot?
Bold move
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:30 am to slackster
Big scam. Enjoy paying the voluntary tax for idiots.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:32 am to BabyTac
quote:
Big scam. Enjoy paying the voluntary tax for idiots.
It's against the Lords will and is a Sin
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:34 am to BabyTac
quote:
Big scam. Enjoy paying the voluntary tax for idiots.
I'll pay a $3 tax to have a 1 in 300 million chance to win over $1 billion
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:34 am to jchamil
Yep
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:35 am to Spilled Milk
That's like $5.1 million for every person in America. Poverty solved!
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:36 am to Spilled Milk
quote:
Powerball now officially up to 1.4 Billion, up from 1.3 by Spilled Milk
Now every American can get $4.6 million and end poverty even more
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:36 am to Walt OReilly
Walt, if Paige asked you for half your winnings and you could smell her hair, would you do it?
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:37 am to slackster
What's the difference if you buy the power play?
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