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Message
re: Potentially Unpopular Opinion Regarding Coronavirus
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:19 am to cave canem
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:19 am to cave canem
quote:
This is the approach Sweden is taking, will be interesting to see how it works out and compare in hindsight.
Right now their deaths per million is running quite a bit higher than ours but the populations are so different the numbers may be hard to compare.
It will also be interesting to compare #'s with places that did actual lockdowns and quarantine.
The one positive note of all of this is there will be lots of data generated to help prepare for the next time this shite happens and we SHOULD have better plans in place.
Lots of questions to be answered.
Funny that you mention that. I was just reading an article about Sweden.
LINK
0
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:22 am to Hopeful Doc
quote:
I fully expect half of my favourite restaurants to close over the next 6 months as well. And as a fatass, I do not appreciate that.
It's a very realistic concern. Most small businesses run on pretty tight margins, but bars/restaurants in particular do not have the capacity to just wait this out. I don't know enough about the CARE act to know to what extent this will be offset, but I empathize with both small business owners and the many many hourly employees who no longer have the ability to clock in.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:42 am to LSUKNUT
quote:
Heat and humidity does not kill it or slow it. It’s spreading like wildfire in S. Florida and we’ve had temps in the high 80’s to low 90’s for weeks.
And it's been spreading like wildfire in some super hot/humid country that I'm forgetting and am too lazy to look up. Maybe Bangladesh. Eh, somewhere around there.
Either way, there is no evidence to suggest that humidity is going to slow this fella down.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:50 am to CP3
quote:
’m not trying to make a political statement on the current state of our healthcare system or anything. I’m just saying, a very large percentage of people losing income/healthcare will have a death toll impact of its own.
There are a myriad of "collateral damage" effects that go beyond just the realm of economics. Alcohol consumption was always going to go up. And it has. Depression was always going to increase. I have no data in front of me, but it surely has. General physical fitness will take a hit across the board, which, wait for it, a significant component of our immune system.
We could brainstorm a boatload of non-trivial adverse effects of this that are well beyond just the "business will go bankrupt" go-to reasons.
I've still not yet found a perfect way to frame a response to the "but none of that outweighs the loss of human life" argument. You sorta sound like a dick when you respond that...eh, the value on human life has to be quantified at some level, or we'd have indefinite stay-at-home orders to save one guy and give a second guy an extra month. But that obviously isn't a reasonable way to balance considerations when setting policy.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:52 am to tigerfan88
quote:
You need a month of shelter in place before you judge it’s effectiveness.
No you don't.
In fact, you don't need any more than 21 days, and that's an outer estimate. After 21 days, every muh fuh'r that caught this the minute before quarantines went into effect is either now-immune or dead. Going a 22nd day will not make the first guy any more immune, and it won't make the second guy any more dead.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:56 am to Twenty 49
quote:
Should we do the same if ebola hits? Ebola party for the kids and such.
Current not-stupid estimates of the fatality rate of COVID-19 place it somewhere between 0.025% and 0.5%*.
I'm not up on the current Ebola literature. Could you remind me what the fatality rate is?
______________________________
*the initial 3.4% estimates from the WHO were such obvious nonsense that the WHO should be ashamed of itself. And if entities had dicks, should punch itself in the dick.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:57 am to Twenty 49
quote:
If that had been the case, he said, 2.2 million people would have died in a short span.
Well that's simply not true.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 4:59 am to Twenty 49
quote:
LINK
But on February 26 he did say: "This is a flu. This is like a flu"; "Now, you treat this like a flu"; "It's a little like the regular flu that we have flu shots for. And we'll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner."
March 9 he said: "So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!"
So it is confusing, even for Trump. Treat it like the flu? Not the flu; millions will die without strong shutdown measures? Something else tomorrow?
His position is evolving.
I agree that Trump's public messages have been contradictory at best. A thread like this, though, can very very quickly devolve into party-line feces-slinging.
Just saying....this virus doesn't give two fricks about what Donald J. Trump said.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:09 am to DustyDinkleman
quote:
Anyone who seriously thought heat and humidity would kill it AFTER the experts said it wouldn’t is a moron anyway.
To be fair, the "experts" said the fatality rate was 3.4%.
I've been treading lightly with appeals to authority.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:17 am to MidnightVibe
You’re like two weeks late with this brave new take
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:23 am to MidnightVibe
Economy will open back up in May, it has to. Those at risk will have to take appropriate actions for themselves. Hopefully by then, we will have treatment options.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:29 am to MidnightVibe
quote:
which given the draconian restrictions and median 5-day incubation period we would have seen in most states
Draconian? Really?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:31 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
Economy will open back up in May, it has to.
Stock market has honestly just hovered the past week or so
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:33 am to MidnightVibe
Your mom has corona virus in her drawers
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:44 am to bigberg2000
quote:
I think the thought by the pros is that the same amount will get the virus but if you spread it out over time it won’t overwhelm them hospitals and they can treat people more easily and have the supplies needed.
Yeah but now a lot of people have in their minds that this is meant to lock everyone up for weeks and eradicate it. Of course that'll never happen but damn they like to push those ideas.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 5:56 am to MidnightVibe
Roughly half the COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU are dying, as are about 2/3s of those placed on ventilators. Experts expect 4.5 million Americans to be admitted to ICUs if 40% of Americans get infected (a high rate for a pandemic). Of these 4.5 million, perhaps 3 million would fall in the fat part of the bell curve that overwhelms our ICU capacity. Of those 3 million, about 1 million would get ample ICU treatment (that’s a guess). Sources:
Guardian article supporting the OP
Heealth Affairs article on rates of hospital admission etc..
So about 2 million ICU patients would be left untreated if we just let the virus run its course. Assuming we pick the least likely to survive from whom care is withheld, that those would have a higher than 2/3 chance of dying (let’s use 90%), and that they all die if we leave them without ICU care, then the price we’d pay is 10% of 2 million people. That’s 200,000 dead. Worth it?
Guardian article supporting the OP
Heealth Affairs article on rates of hospital admission etc..
So about 2 million ICU patients would be left untreated if we just let the virus run its course. Assuming we pick the least likely to survive from whom care is withheld, that those would have a higher than 2/3 chance of dying (let’s use 90%), and that they all die if we leave them without ICU care, then the price we’d pay is 10% of 2 million people. That’s 200,000 dead. Worth it?
Posted on 4/1/20 at 6:04 am to t00f
quote:
I am sorry, I thought we are talking about people that have to be treated for coronavirus. You think the Urgent Care locations are dealing with the late term issues?
You are being willfully ignorant to support a hasty statement you made. I have a health issue that would have killed me had it not been discovered during an annual checkup. That checkup would not have happened had I not had health insurance, and I would not have had health insurance had I not had a job.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 6:09 am to MidnightVibe
quote:
1) I have seen no evidence of a nationally overstressed health care system. At most, this has been true in NY/NJ, and even there I think there's reason to suspect it's been overstated.
Two possibilities:
1) What we are doing now and for the past couple of weeks has done it's job of lessening the strain on the hospitals. Remember, if we did it correctly, it will look like an overreaction. That's the Catch-22.
2) We are still climbing up the hill and have yet to see the peak.
It's not hard to look at Italy and Spain and see that a system can be overwhelmed. China was most likely overwhelmed too, but they're lying bastards and we'll never know.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 6:10 am to Scoob
quote:
That 1-2% that need medical treatment, we aren't arresting things with "just normal" hospitalization. If this shite gets the better of someone to the point that they need help, they are almost always headed towards a vent.
Anecdotal, and not supported by data. 25% of those admitted to hospitals for COVID-19 require ventilators.
LINK
quote:
Nationally, based on 40 percent prevalence of COVID-19 over the course of the pandemic, we estimate that 98,876,254 individuals will be infected, 20,598,725 individuals will likely require hospitalization and 4,430,245 individuals will need ICU-level care.
Posted on 4/1/20 at 6:19 am to kciDAtaE
quote:
Draconian? Really?
An executive stay-at-home order is literally the most restrictive thing the government can do and have it be constitutional.
What else would you like? Seriously. Take a second and brainstorm. What else could the state possibly do that is more restrictive of individual liberties?
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