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Paging tropical weather experts - rds dc, duke, slackster et al - GFS development W Carib?

Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:33 pm
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14614 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:33 pm
Just ran across this. It starts out in the deep SW Carib on Sunday and ends up - you know where - on Friday the 23rd as a Cat 1/2.

I know anything can happen, but based on the atmosphere over the next 4-5 days how plausible is the scenario of development that the GFS is showing here? Or is today's 18Z GFS on crack? No other models show a thing.



Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
66991 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:36 pm to
Something, something, Punta Cana, something something Peej and forecasts, something something will it affect LSU's first game
Posted by FightingTigers138
In your thoughts
Member since Dec 2016
6009 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:37 pm to
Ill give 15:1 odd that it hits us as a hurricane. ( good for 4 GFS model runs )

$50 minimum $500 Max
This post was edited on 8/13/19 at 8:43 pm
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
45520 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:37 pm to
quote:

will it affect LSU's first game


It’s not looking good.
Posted by Mr Wonderful
Love City
Member since Oct 2015
1045 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:38 pm to
Looks like we need some new TD hurricane experts around here. We finna get stroked in 10 days and this is the first warning we get??
This post was edited on 8/13/19 at 8:41 pm
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12620 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:39 pm to
Latest Vegas insider has hurricane Chantal hitting the gulf south 14:1
Posted by jamboybarry
Member since Feb 2011
33256 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:39 pm to
I’ll wait for Peej’s take before I start looting
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:39 pm to
Happy hour GFS put out a major into Corpus yesterday and this today. The 00z didn't see anything last night. Euro ensembles aren't showing anything. Really nothing else is but the 18z GFS the last two days.

Take it as a signal we're getting to the peak of hurricane season.
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
88509 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:39 pm to
I don't see how they are going play a football game
This post was edited on 8/13/19 at 8:52 pm
Posted by tigerinthebueche
Member since Oct 2010
38228 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:39 pm to
First LSU game and opening weekend of dove season? Oh yeah we gettin it.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
51600 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:40 pm to
I posted this the other day. Got shredded because it was 300 hours away. Looks like the GFS is sticking to it. We’ll see what happens.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:44 pm to
quote:

Looks like we need some new TD hurricane experts around here. We finna get stroked in 10 days and this is the first warning we get??


A storm hitting you 10 days out is probably the biggest sign that you're safe from said storm if it ever develops.



Until this changes its all uber speculative.
This post was edited on 8/13/19 at 8:45 pm
Posted by The People
LSU Alumni
Member since Aug 2008
4460 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:47 pm to
First page: Reserved if this thing goes viral.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16480 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:47 pm to
That far out when the models couldn't get Barry right 8 hours in advance.

Another wannabe weatherman
Posted by red sox fan 13
Valley Park
Member since Aug 2018
19238 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:48 pm to
Just want to let everyone know the east side is the strongest side of the storm. Be sure to hunker down.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14614 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:49 pm to
quote:

A storm hitting you 10 days out is probably the biggest sign that you're safe


Agree. The thing that is a little interesting about this remote possibility is that it doesn't close off a Low until 80 West. I would think If anything were to develop, it would most likely crash into Central America before doing anything.
Posted by deaconjones35
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2009
9900 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:50 pm to
Should I defrost my bread I bought for Barry?
Posted by Dr Lecter
Baltimore, MD
Member since Oct 2012
1346 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:50 pm to
Nothing will come of this. Entire gulf coast won't see anything above 40mph winds rest of the season.
Posted by SATNIGHTS
Red Stick
Member since Jan 2008
2515 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:53 pm to
First page. I shouldn’t have returned my generators.
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
88509 posts
Posted on 8/13/19 at 8:53 pm to
What height is the Mississippi? Can we get a CoE representative on the horn?
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