re: Official Harvey Observation Thread

slackster any guesses on when I could get in to port O'Connor or palacios this week?
I've got some clean up and hopefully boat retrieval to do

quote:

---

What if I told you that the rain this far has practically been non existent and the sun is shining this morning?

---

Where are you located exactly in TX

quote:

---

slackster any guesses on when I could get in to port O'Connor or palacios this week?
I've got some clean up and hopefully boat retrieval to do

---

Tough call. In 96 hours, every major model has the storm basically in the exact area it is right now. The Euro actually has it over water due south of Port O'Conner in 96 hours.

Probably won't be dealing with major wind keeping you out, but flooding in that area may be a concern, and utility crews may be quite a while before they get things right.

Official report from College Station:

As of 8:14 am I have received 1.4 inches of rain....squalls are off and on with gust up to 25 knots.

I have to do trauma anesthesia this evening @ St. Joes in Bryan. I will follow up with rain totals throughout the day.

Praying for all and hoping for a evening in which people stay off the roads.

quote:

---

Feeder band just dumped 5-6 inches across swath of Fort Bend in the last hour or two

---

My jobsite in sienna plantation was getting hammered throughout the night. It's right down the street from where a tornado bulldozed through.

7.5 inches yesterday, 5 inches since midnight thru this am. 12.5 total in about 18 hours according to our rain gauge.

Nuts that this isn't supposed to be the worst of the rain.

quote:

---

Trouble already for Houston? Watch the evolution of that convection in the black circle this evening. The HRRR is spitting out 12-16" over the eastern half of Houston tonight.

---

The big totals are a bit farther SW on the other side of 45 but the setup favoured training cells near the Houston area and the HRRR highlighted that.

Over 8 million people in those flood warnings. With Harvey moving little, this could get bad.

quote:

---

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0736...CORRECTED NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 843 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2017 CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN FIRST DISCUSSION PARAGRAPH AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX & SOUTHWEST LA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 261240Z - 261840Z SUMMARY...HURRICANE HARVEY CONTINUES TO MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST TX. HOURLY RAIN TOTALS UP TO 3" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 7" ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. DISCUSSION...THE EYE OF HURRICANE HARVEY CONTINUES TO FILL IN ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WHILE MOVING FARTHER INTO SOUTHEAST TX. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP TO ~2.75" PER GPS DATA. INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 25-50 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES, BUT ARE LIKELY AS HIGH AS 80 KTS GIVEN HARVEY'S INTENSITY. THE INFLOW IS NEARLY DOUBLE THE 850 HPA WIND, WHICH IS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30 KTS IS LEADING TO ORGANIZED CYCLONIC BANDING. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SHORTWAVES ALOFT ARE EVIDENT ACROSS OK/THE TX PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE SYSTEM'S WEST, WHICH COMBINED WITH STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND ARE LEADING TO ITS LOPSIDED CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE FAVORING THE EASTERN SIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR 7" OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. COMBINED WITH THE 3-12" OF RAINFALL THIS REGION HAS ALREADY RECEIVED, SENSITIVE URBAN AREAS IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA, DAM ISSUES IN PORT ARTHUR TX, AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN SOUTHWEST LA IN 2017, SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX, WITH FLASH FLOOD RISK IN SOUTHWEST LA INCREASING WITH TIME AS A INFLOW BAND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTERSECTS OR MERGES WITH EXISTING ACTIVITY NEAR THE EFFECTIVE STATIONARY FRONT.

---

How much rain could SE Louisiana get over the next few days? Looks like the amount is getting lower and lower from the way the storm is moving. I am around Thibodaux.

quote:

---

My jobsite in sienna plantation was getting hammered throughout the night. It's right down the street from where a tornado bulldozed through. 

---

I lived through it last night. We got very lucky. Others very close to us were damaged. Insane tornado

I hope this isn't right, but if it is it's already ahead of the predicted rise to within 0.6 feet of the record


ETA - the forecast was just updated right after my OP to a record.

LINK

From the other Harvey thread:



Lightning illuminating the stadium features of the eye. You can see the stars through the eye. That is going to be one helluva shot.