re: Official Arctic Air Blast/Winter Weather Thread

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I hope I’ve done enough prep to my pipes. It’s damn cold out there at 18 degrees now.
Fingers crossed. Gonna be some dripping for sure.

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 152201
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
401 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

The arctic front has started to creep into the area as upper 20s
has started to enter the northwest parts of the area. Sub-freezing
temperatures will likely enter the area in the next hour or so (if
those temps haven`t got here already) and rapidly come through the
area tonight from northwest to southeast. Broad surface low
cyclogenesis has started to occur over the central gulf. The low
will help push that airmass southwards, and, along with
evaporative cooling and strong cold-air advection, will contribute
to temperatures lowering more than previously forecasted. As a
result, the hard freeze has been expended southward and a freeze
warning has been issued for the rest of the southshore. As lows
range from the teens to upper 20s. Winds in associated with the
developing low will create dangerous wind chills below 13 degrees
across much of the area with the exception of areas just south of
the lake.

The other issue of this forecast is the potential for freezing
rain tonight as the sub-freezing temps catches up with the exiting
rain along the cold front. There seems to be a brief window where
these two overlap of 1-3 hours. This short duration will hamper
the amount of accumulations across the area to less than 0.1 inch.
Areas across the southshore will likely have no accumulations due
to the modification of the lake and such a short duration of the
overlapping conditions.

The one caveat is if we have more isentropic lift and 925mb
frontogenesis across the area in association with the low
developing in the gulf. If that were to occur, we could see a high
rain amount and thus, higher ice accumulation. Even if that does
occur, portions where that swath sets up might see 0.15-0.2 inch.
This seems to be the worst case scenario as most of the guidance
just has the stratiform showers along the front, and leading to
the low ice accumulation.

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if we have more isentropic lift and 925mb
frontogenesis

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Tyler Sebree
@TylerWSFA12

Models have definitely been uptrending the ice potential across the Deep South tonight into Tuesday. Most of Alabama will see at least a glaze of ice accretion, with higher amounts for many. It'll be a slippery to perhaps dangerous commute for much of the state Tuesday. #ALwx

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