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Oceans ___: Gambler takes down Texas Lottery for $60 Million

Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:16 am
Posted by prplhze2000
Parts Unknown
Member since Jan 2007
58194 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:16 am

From WSJ today: WSJ article. behind paywall.




quote:


In the spring of 2023, a London banker-turned-bookmaker reached out to a few contacts with an audacious request: Can you help me take down the Texas lottery?

Bernard Marantelli had a plan in mind. He and his partners would buy nearly every possible number in a coming drawing. There were 25.8 million potential number combinations. The tickets were $1 apiece. The jackpot was heading to $95 million. If nobody else also picked the winning numbers, the profit would be nearly $60 million.

Marantelli flew to the U.S. with a few trusted lieutenants. They set up shop in a defunct dentist’s office, a warehouse and two other spots in Texas. The crew worked out a way to get official ticket-printing terminals. Trucks hauled in dozens of them and reams of paper.

Over three days, the machines—manned by a disparate bunch of associates and some of their children—screeched away nearly around the clock, spitting out 100 or more tickets every second. Texas politicians later likened the operation to a sweatshop.

Trying to pull off the gambit required deep pockets and a knack for staying under the radar...

Over the years, Ranogajec and his partners have won hundreds of millions of dollars by applying Wall Street-style analytics to betting opportunities around the world. Like card counters at a blackjack table, they use data and math to hunt for situations ripe for flipping the house edge in their favor. Then they throw piles of money at it, betting an estimated $10 billion annually.

The Texas lottery play, one of their most ambitious operations ever, paid off spectacularly with a $57.8 million jackpot win...

In Texas, as in many states, most people who play the lottery go to a store with a machine, choose numbers, then walk away with a ticket. Back in 2023, Texas also allowed online lottery-ticket vendors to set up shops to print tickets for their customers.

Marantelli’s team recruited one such seller, struggling startup Lottery.com, to help with the logistics of buying and printing the millions of tickets. Like all lotto retailers, it would collect a 5% sales commission. The Texas Lottery Commission allowed dozens of the terminals that print tickets to be delivered to the four workshops set up by the team.

That April 19, the commission announced that there had been no winner in that day’s drawing. The next drawing, with an even larger pot, would be three days later, on a Saturday. The group sprang into action.

The printing operation ran day and night. The team had converted each number combination into a QR code. Crew members scanned the codes into the terminals using their phones, then scrambled to organize all the tickets in boxes such that they could easily locate the winning numbers.

The game called for picking six numbers from 1 to 54. For a pro gambler, some sets of numbers—such as 1,2,3,4,5,6—aren’t worth picking because so many other players choose them, which would split the pot. Marantelli’s operation bought 99.3% of the possibilities.

Money moved to Lottery.com from Ranogajec’s accounts—held under the name John Wilson—in the Isle of Man, a tax haven off the U.K. coast, taking a circuitous route via an escrow account at a Detroit law firm, according to people familiar with the transfers and bank statements reviewed by the Journal.

The crew hit the jackpot that Saturday. One of their tickets was the sole winner.

State lotteries like the one in Texas are in a sweet spot for the pros. The jackpots are big enough to be worth shooting for, and the number of possible combinations minimizes the risk of multiple winners. Multistate games such as the Powerball often have far bigger pots, but there are so many combinations that buying them all would be unwieldy and cost too much
Posted by idlewatcher
Planet Arium
Member since Jan 2012
96959 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:20 am to
quote:

The crew hit the jackpot that Saturday. One of their tickets was the sole winner.



If they won $60M, wonder what their cost was minus the 5% sales commish to Lottery.com
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:21 am to
Excellent use of their math education.
Posted by Bjorn Cyborg
Member since Sep 2016
35494 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:22 am to
Sounds like they netted $60 million.
Posted by NewIberiaHaircut
Lafayette
Member since May 2013
12452 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:22 am to
quote:

London banker-turned-bookmaker reached out to a few contacts with an audacious request


How does one get their contact information to this baw?
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14811 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:32 am to
quote:

Sounds like they netted $60 million.


Isn’t the jackpot the annuitized amount if you take so much per year for like 20 or 30 years The cash value is less then the jackpot amount.
Posted by Sus-Scrofa
Member since Feb 2013
11061 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:34 am to
People have been joking about buying all the numbers as long as there has been a lottery, but I never really thought about the logistics of doing it between drawings.

This wasn’t a math brain flex, this was a logistics brain flex.
Posted by Purple Spoon
Hoth
Member since Feb 2005
20879 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:37 am to
quote:

The cash value is less then the jackpot amount.




Yes

You should always take the cash amount though.
Posted by redneck hippie
Oklahoma
Member since Dec 2008
6413 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:42 am to
This is nothing new. A man in Austria in the early 80s developed this scheme.
If I remember the story correctly, he and investors won money in the local lotteries in Europe. He eventually brought it over to the states, specifically the Virginia lottery.
I don’t remember the full story but they eventually caught onto him and figured out a way to make it illegal or impossible to win that way

Edit to add link:
The Man Who Won The Lottery 14 Times Using Incredibly Basic Math

Also, I had the details wrong, he was Romanian. The lotteries were in Australia and it was in the 90s
This post was edited on 4/14/25 at 9:47 am
Posted by sidewalkside
rent free in yo head
Member since Sep 2021
4606 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:42 am to
This just happened again a few weeks ago in TX and they shut down all the apps you can buy tix on because of it.
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
70025 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 9:53 am to
quote:

The cash value is less then the jackpot amount.


it is what it would cost the lottery to buy the annuity...I think
Posted by CR4090
Member since Apr 2023
9485 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:04 am to
Maybe they sold the annuity to JG Wentworth.
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:07 am to
quote:

Maybe they sold the annuity to JG Wentworth.


We would take the time and effort to set up Trust and annuities for clients and within 72 hours of funding them they would sell to JG Wentworth. 55-60 cents on the dollar.
Posted by prplhze2000
Parts Unknown
Member since Jan 2007
58194 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:07 am to
Posted by QboveTopSecret
America
Member since Feb 2018
3495 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:08 am to


Logistics win wars.
Posted by F1y0n7h3W4LL
Below I-10
Member since Jul 2019
4092 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:13 am to
quote:

Excellent use of their math education.


Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
70025 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:18 am to
Posted by HoustonGumbeauxGuy
Member since Jul 2011
33489 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:20 am to
Lotto purses have been $300 million several times over the last year

Are they not capitalizing on theses bigger ones?


Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
134636 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:25 am to
quote:

Logistics win wars.




Yup.

One of my favorite topics to write on.


Mundanity bests magnificence
Posted by Tiger Prawn
Member since Dec 2016
25841 posts
Posted on 4/14/25 at 10:34 am to
quote:

Lotto purses have been $300 million several times over the last year

Are they not capitalizing on theses bigger ones?
Different lottery game with different odds.

The jackpot odds Powerball and Mega Millions are both in the 1 in 300 million range. Way more potential number combinations. It would have to be a billion dollar jackpot to even be worth considering doing that so you won’t lose money if there’s a split jackpot with 1 or 2 other winning tickets.
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