re: Not looking good for the weekend parades

I'm getting a cab from the Hilton Riverside to the convention center. I'm not spending 2 hours on my hair and dress just to get soaked.

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I never make it over to Mid-city

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Same. Are you saying there's a better than 50/50 that Tucks and Iris won't be a wash out?

I won't hold you to accuracy.....just looking for a ray of hope....got a kid in a foot cast

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Yenni said he has heard from some New Orleans parade krewes about possibly moving parades to Jefferson Parish

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I'll take 'shite that ain't happening' for 100, Alex.


They going to roll next Wednesday when the rain is done?

On a week night.

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I'm getting a cab from the Hilton Riverside to the convention center. I'm not spending 2 hours on my hair and dress just to get soaked.

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On a week night.

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Yep. She said it was miserable and that it couldn’t end soon enough.


Eta: she was talking about the parade.

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Still bringing the Frog Togs though..

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Just picked the hottest costume of the Mardi Gras season

Do the streets cars still run that aren't on parade routes? we are staying near cooter browns so just wondering for the uptown parades if we will be able to take a street car in that direction or if we will need to uber. Thanks in advance for helpful answers

Model sounding for Saturday night during Endymion.

PWat is pretty high @ 1.5". This is what will be driving the mentions of heavy rain. That's pretty high for this time of year, but there are limiters on this plot.

A little temperature inversion to limit convection and it shows in the limited CAPE numbers. For CAPE, bigger the number the greater potential for convection, lightning, and heavier rain from the improved lift. If the CAPE was higher, that high wind shear would present a severe weather threat but CAPE is too low. The very bottom isn't totally saturated either, which will help evaporate a little of the rain falling.

Models have the rain totals pretty low here, and have been consistent. So I'm still sitting on the idea of light enough rain to not cause problems. There is potential with that much precip water for heavier rains though. Really need to watch the new HRRR runs that go out 36 hours starting tomorrow to start nailing down the when.

Now to Sunday:



This is basically during Thoth.

CAPE is way up, into the kJ/kg range presenting increased convection and thunderstorm risks. There is no temperature inversion which would promote surface based convection. On the good side, the column is not saturated up even to the mid levels which should help limit rain potential somewhat. Definitely some concerns Sunday but the lack of saturation will hopefully keep things relatively calm.

The short: Saturday has the more efficient column for rain but is lacking surface based lift to really drive big thunderstorms. Sunday has the convection ptential but the column would need to recover in the moisture department to start worrying about a washout.

That's the gist of what could produce heavy rain and what could end up limiting it. Models aren't aggressive on rain totals but NWS has concerns with the high PWats.

Basically. Yes.

I'm trying to contextualize the forecast on why there's going to be wording for heavy rain but also what is going to be working against it. I haven't changed my mind on the general idea rain won't wash out any parades but I've got to note the potential is there.

Will feel better about any forecast once the high res models start rolling in.

And yes, potential break Saturday night but I'm not sold just yet on the idea. There does appear to be a break between Sat noon and Sun night but I don't feel comfortable even guessing at when.