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Impotent Waffle
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
6829 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Duke, thanks again for your work here. What are you thoughts about the rain for Spanish town on Saturday?


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11
Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
26278 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
*yawn*

That first Mardi Gras hangover, finally "feels" like Mardi Gras.

So this morning's forecast discussion has a pretty lengthy discussion about Saturday. The story of all week remains in place for Endymion. Off and on rain expected (NWS/GFS model more bullish than that Fox 8 screencap), with some periods of possible heavy rain. HRRR starting to get into range too, and the whole thing looks good for Endymion to roll. Might go late because of the next part of muh post.

Early Uptown parades Saturday have a risk of severe weather in the mix, but "marginal" risk as of now. As moisture builds in to the column, the potential for convection will be higher than later in the day and with the shear available...theres potential somewhere in South LA to get severe thunderstorms. New Orleans would appear to be SE of the main focus of the stormy energy.

So stay aware for Saturday in Uptown but once again, odds are we are rainy but ok.

Sunday presents a very similar picture for rain, off and on and maybe heavy at times but without the severe risk of early morning to early afternoon Saturday. Bring rain jackets and some boots.

To the waffle concerned with BR, the general idea is similiar for BR but it's closer to the main focus of energy up toward northwest and north central Louisiana. So the rain chances are greater, the potential for heavy is greater, and severe storm potential on Saturday is too increased a degree relative to New Orleans. We'll keep an eye on the HRRR for an idea of timing and impacts for BR/NO this evening.

Now, time for a decent Poboy and a beer.


OceanMan
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2010
10607 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
quote:

To the waffle concerned with BR




Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
26278 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/hrrr_2018020919_fh14_sounding_29.95N_90.37W.png


Tomorrow at 3-4 am. Showing a sounding that could be supportive of severe storms overnight. Don't leave your tents up at least and weigh down them tarps just in case.

Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018020919/hrrr_apcpn_us_14.png


Good look for tonight's parades though. Barely a spritzing of rain on our high res model.


Impotent Waffle
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
6829 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
quote:

To the waffle concerned with BR


Thank you, looking for updates this evening.


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10
GWfool
George Washington Fan
Member since Aug 2010
1725 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
quote:

Tomorrow at 3-4 am. Showing a sounding that could be supportive of severe storms overnight. Don't leave your tents up at least and weigh down them tarps just in case.


Is that for tonight before Endymion tomorrow? Or, for before Sunday?


LSUcajun77
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2008
12249 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
We need some cool graphs and stuff for tomorrow’s parades.

Come on Duke give us some good news about tomorrow night


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00
Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
26278 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
quote:

Is that for tonight before Endymion tomorrow? Or, for before Sunday?


That's 3-4 am tomorrow morning before all the Saturday parades. I'm not sure I understand moving Iris and Tucks up fwiw, I'd consider going the other way.

At our 430 pm update, still looks wet but good enough to roll for Endymion. It'll be warm at least, so it'll be kinda sloppy most likely but fun sloppy.


Kevin TheRant
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2010
1288 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Duke, im seeing some of the news networks predicting the rain to be mostly north of the city. Are you seeing that?

I trust you more than Dave Nussbaum.


tigercross
Member since Feb 2008
2339 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
quote:

Is that for tonight before Endymion tomorrow? Or, for before Sunday?


The 0900 Zulu for February 10 at the top of the image is a pretty decent hint.


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11
Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
26278 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
quote:

Duke, im seeing some of the news networks predicting the rain to be mostly north of the city. Are you seeing that?


Yes but the model soundings are telling me there's likely rain in the NOLA area tomorrow afternoon, despite being removed from the primary axis of energy.

The general rule will be the farther North and West you go, the higher the threat of heavy rain and even a severe storm or two.

quote:

I trust you more than Dave Nussbaum.


I wouldn't. The pros know more, but they also have to be careful in what the present for public consumption. I have no such burden, so I'll do some semi informed guesswork that a media met wouldn't actually broadcast.


msu202020
Member since Feb 2011
3558 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Duke good sir. Thanks for all you do. Can you give me your forecast for Biloxi tomorrow afternoon and evening? Better or worse off than NOLA?


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
26278 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
quote:

Can you give me your forecast for Biloxi tomorrow afternoon and evening?


Check weather.gov for your area. They'll have the best actual forecast.

I looked at a projected sounding for about 6 pm tomorrow and it looks better than NOLA and points west. Lower PWat, meaning less heavy rain potential, but enough to not be surprised if it rains off and on. Models have you well under an inch to the point of 6 pm tomorrow. So looks pretty good.

Few sprinkles falling Uptown currently. Shouldn't be much more than that as things stand. Enjoy the parades tonight baws.


OweO
LSU Fan
MOST HATED OT POSTER EVER!
Member since Sep 2009
68608 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
If anyone cares there is an instagram account _drewshie_ayala_ that is posting videos of chicks flashing to get beads on Bourbon st.


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35
msu202020
Member since Feb 2011
3558 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Thank you good sir.


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
26278 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Isn't a problem, I'm just sharing stuff I'd already be checking out. Feel free to ask about your area through Tuesday and I'll respond, and even mostly sober at times.


msu202020
Member since Feb 2011
3558 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Mainly interested in tomorrow night Biloxi. My parade rolls from 5:30 to about 8:30


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00
loogaroo
LSU Fan
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
3122 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Lots of rain in the Western Gulf on the radar.


Duke
USA Fan
Gonzales, La
Member since Jan 2008
26278 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2018021003/hrrr_ref_frzn_us_18.png


HRRR out to generally the start of Endymion. Rain moving in. They should probably choose early vs late, as the HRRR seems to have a good hold on current precip, so I'd think it'll hold well through the rest of the run.

fricking Morpehus taking forever to move through.


LSUcajun77
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2008
12249 posts

re: Not looking good for the weekend parades
They haven’t changed the start.
Seems like a later start is the better option.
Any chance that stuff stays on the northshore?
You still think we roll without problem or you changing your mind?


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