re: Not looking good for the weekend parades

Still not much change in weather, percentages have changed. I am starting to believe more and more it will be moved.

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Still not much change in weather, percentages have changed. I am starting to believe more and more it will be moved.

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It doesn't pay to worry yet. From what I'm seeing the thunderstorms have been moved to earlier in the day so that's a good thing. We will ride in the rain on Saturday if its just rain.

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It doesn't pay to worry yet. From what I'm seeing the thunderstorms have been moved to earlier in the day so that's a good thing. We will ride in the rain on Saturday if its just rain

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The more the percentages change the more it starts to look like 2012. If they risked it then....

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What happened in 2012? I didn't live here yet.

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It was supposed to be really bad, and it was. It was supposed to clear out by about 530 and it did.

We huddled on the floats for about an hour under a sheet of plastic in a torrential downpour, but once it stopped it was a beautiful night for a parade.

Does anyone have any news on Bacchus? This thread has basically been all about Endmyion (and I'm glad for the info so we can plan) but Sunday looks just as bad weather wise but not a peep about their contingency plans.

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but once it stopped it was a beautiful night for a parade.

yes it was, except that when you touched anything metal on the float you got a nice lil jolt

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I have to get some ponchos and shrimper boots, want to be prepared for the crappy weather...

at least with all the new LEDs on the floats, the chances of that is reduced signinficantly...it simply sucks because the floats this year are really amazing...

Doesn’t look too bad Sunday night.

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Wind is an issue.

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I'm not seeing much reason to be worried about that. This isn't some big low or front blowing in, it's a stalled front having little bits of energy ride up and provide some rain.



If you aren't used to looking at these charts, don't bother trying to figure it out. What I'm showing is a computer model representation of the atmosphere above NOLA around 6 pm Saturday night.

You'll see the green line separated from the red line near the bottom, meaning the lower levels are not saturated, and thus the rain should be light-moderate. Additionally there is a little temperature inversion (red line going a little to the right right about the bottom) that says surface based convection (and by extension lightning risk) is going to be limited to non-existant. The projected convective potential energy (CAPE) is very low too, further backing the idea of light rain as opposed to a thunderstorm downpour. 1.5" PWAT is higher than you'd like but limited in how much could actually fall for reasons above.

Finally, the wind barb at the surface is pretty light and the lowest wind speeds through the column are definitely at ground level. 10 mph-15 mph tops.

Tl;dr: The model based atmospheric profile looks good, though wet, for Endymion to roll as scheduled.



The 12z GFS accumulated precip for Saturday through the end of the parade has NOLA barely getting to 1" for the entire 24 period. Hardly extreme enough for flooding to be of any concern.

This solution has been consistent now for five runs, so I'm not terribly worried about significant shifts. Additionally, I don't see anything (I'm not a pro though) that the models might underestimate.

The skinny? Endymion looks rainy, but definitely able to parade as scheduled.

(no message)

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Hardly extreme enough for flooding to be of any concern.

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NOLA

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eh.