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Started By
Message
re: NASA satellite from 80’s will be crashing down tonight. Odds of getting hit 1-9,400
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:36 am to BowDownToLSU
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:36 am to BowDownToLSU
wait....1/9400 people will be hit or every person has that probability
1
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:38 am to BowDownToLSU
If you saw what it looked like when it comes down, you would realize that it was never in outer space.
There is an Air Force unit that retrieved them and the pictures of the ones that fall are comical
There is an Air Force unit that retrieved them and the pictures of the ones that fall are comical
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:39 am to jamiegla1
quote:
wait....1/9400 people will be hit or every person has that probability
Assuming this is 1/9400 chance that any person will be hit, and your odds are obviously much much lower as an individual
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:43 am to BowDownToLSU
quote:
Better odds than the lottery.
Nonsense. The only person every to be hit by space debris was a woman in Tulsa in 1997. And it was a rocket part, not a satellite. So being hit by a satellite has never happened. Thousands of people have won the lottery.
Another way to look at it is that if the odds of being hit were actually 1 in 9,400, and there are 7.9 billion people on earth; then 840,000 people will be hit by this satellite.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:53 am to BowDownToLSU
That is 32,000 times better that mega millions lottery.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:00 am to BowDownToLSU
Bout to get paidddddd
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:05 am to BowDownToLSU
quote:
1 in 9,400
This isn’t how I saw the purge going at all. But I’ll take it.
This post was edited on 1/8/23 at 11:31 am
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:06 am to Tigris
A fat Gumpette (redundant, sorry) got hit by an asteroid in 1954.
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Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:08 am to BowDownToLSU
Can they not control its entry somewhat? I believe NASA usually crashes their obsolete satellites, etc., at Point Nemo - the most remote area of the ocean.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:09 am to BowDownToLSU
quote:
The ERBS carried instruments and took measurements relating to the ozone to help track climate health and weather patterns, according to the agency.
I think that's government speak for "it had a big camera lens and we used it to spy on the Russians."
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:13 am to BowDownToLSU
quote:
the Department of Defense estimated the 5,400-pound satellite would return at about 6:40 pm EST on Sunday, give or take 17 hours
DOD scheduling satellite re-entries like Cox be scheduling cable/internet service visits.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:18 am to shutterspeed
My wonder is at what speed the debris will be falling at once it clears the atmosphere….,
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:21 am to BowDownToLSU
Odds are 50/50, either you get hit or you don't
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:34 am to BowDownToLSU
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:44 am to dukke v
quote:
My wonder is at what speed the debris will be falling at once it clears the atmosphere….,
Total shot in the dark, but I'm guessing terminal velocity.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:46 am to BowDownToLSU
I think you multiply people on earth by chances (8b x 9400)
That’s the thing about the OT everybody a genius… with that said I might be wrong
That’s the thing about the OT everybody a genius… with that said I might be wrong
This post was edited on 1/8/23 at 11:49 am
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:52 am to Macavity92
quote:
NASA’s phrasing makes a little more sense.
More evidence of why no one should trust journalists.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 11:59 am to lepdagod
0.9999999999
That's the individual chance of not getting hit. The chance of getting hit is one in 10 billion.
If 1 in 9400 is the cumulative chance of at least one person getting hit, then that can also be expressed as 1 - the chance of nobody getting hit which is then 1- 0.0001 = 0.9999 (roughly, not exact). And the chance of nobody getting hit is also the product of all the individual chances of not getting hit. That's p raised to 7 billion. So take the 7 billionth root of 0.9999 and you get the aforementioned number.
I love statistics.
That's the individual chance of not getting hit. The chance of getting hit is one in 10 billion.
If 1 in 9400 is the cumulative chance of at least one person getting hit, then that can also be expressed as 1 - the chance of nobody getting hit which is then 1- 0.0001 = 0.9999 (roughly, not exact). And the chance of nobody getting hit is also the product of all the individual chances of not getting hit. That's p raised to 7 billion. So take the 7 billionth root of 0.9999 and you get the aforementioned number.
I love statistics.
Posted on 1/8/23 at 12:20 pm to soccerfüt
quote:
A fat Gumpette (redundant, sorry) got hit by an asteroid in 1954.
That looks like a tobacco leaf on that lady’s tummy.
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