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NASA satellite from 80’s will be crashing down tonight. Odds of getting hit 1-9,400

Posted on 1/8/23 at 9:58 am
Posted by BowDownToLSU
Livingston louisiana
Member since Feb 2010
19222 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 9:58 am
A retired NASA satellite is expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere this weekend, the agency said.

The satellite was launched aboard the Challenger in 1984 by Sally Ride, the first US woman in space.

The Department of Defense estimated the 5,400-pound satellite would return Sunday evening.

A satellite that's been in orbit since the 1980s is expected to return to Earth on Sunday night, NASA announced, noting that the chance of being struck by falling debris is "very low."
quote:

Most pieces of the retired Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) will burn upon re-entry, and NASA put the odds of being hit by surviving pieces at 1 in 9,400, the space agency said in a statement.
While the Department of Defense estimated the 5,400-pound satellite would return at about 6:40 pm EST on Sunday, give or take 17 hours, other companies like Aerospace Corp. predict the satellite will show up on Monday morning with a 13-hour margin of error, according to The Associated Press.

On October 5, 1984, the satellite was launched aboard the Space Shuttle Challenger, released into orbit with the shuttle's robotic arm operated by Sally Ride, the first American woman in space, per The AP. It was Ride's second and last trip to space preceding her death in 2012, according to the outlet.
quote:

The satellite was only expected to work for two years, but it remained in use until its retirement in 2005, according to NASA's press release. The ERBS carried instruments and took measurements relating to the ozone to help track climate health and weather patterns, according to the agency.
Better odds than the lottery. You feeling lucky?
Posted by northshorebamaman
Cochise County AZ
Member since Jul 2009
35465 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:02 am to
quote:

Odds of getting hit 1-9,400
wait, what?
This post was edited on 1/8/23 at 10:03 am
Posted by SUB
Member since Jan 2001
Member since Jan 2009
20757 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:03 am to
That can’t be right. Those are some pretty good odds.
Posted by beerJeep
Louisiana
Member since Nov 2016
34937 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:04 am to
quote:

the odds of being hit by surviving pieces at 1 in 9,400, the space agency said in a statement.


I hope that isn’t each individuals chances. Gonna be a lot of death
Posted by WPBTiger
Parts Unknown
Member since Nov 2011
30877 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:04 am to
Better chance of being hit by a falling bullet in New Orleans
Posted by SulphursFinest
Lafayette
Member since Jan 2015
8721 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:05 am to
Yeah I don’t get how that makes any sense.
Posted by Saintsisit
Member since Jan 2013
3912 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:07 am to
quote:

wait, what?


Should be a ton of people on Earth getting hit with those odds.

Going to be a bloodbath.
Posted by LSU-MNCBABY
Knightsgate
Member since Jan 2004
24343 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:09 am to
They don’t have any estimates of where it’s going to come down?
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7122 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:09 am to
quote:

Gonna be a lot of death


If it reenters over the US, there’s gonna be like 35,000 people getting hit.
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
13847 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:10 am to
Guessing this is odds for any single human on earth to get hit..
Posted by wileyjones
Member since May 2014
2282 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:10 am to
quote:

They don’t have any estimates of where it’s going to come down?
along with 17 hour error
Posted by RougeDawg
Member since Jul 2016
5816 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:10 am to
So about 850,000 people on Earth will get hit by this satellite. Watch your heads baws.
Posted by Macavity92
Member since Dec 2004
5981 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:10 am to
NASA’s phrasing makes a little more sense.

quote:

The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is very low – approximately 1 in 9,400.
Posted by Diseasefreeforall
Member since Oct 2012
5488 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:12 am to
quote:

Should be a ton of people on Earth getting hit with those odds.

Going to be a bloodbath.

Lol. 840,000 of our fellow humans about to take shrapnel.
Posted by MardiGrasCajun
Dirty Coast, MS
Member since Sep 2005
5352 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:14 am to
quote:

While the Department of Defense estimated the 5,400-pound satellite would return at about 6:40 pm EST on Sunday, give or take 17 hours, other companies like Aerospace Corp. predict the satellite will show up on Monday morning with a 13-hour margin of error, according to The Associated Press.


Is this a joke?
Posted by Spasweezy
Unfortunately, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2014
6605 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:15 am to
That’s the individual risk of it hitting one random person or random small group of persons I imagine. It’s kind of misleading. It’s not saying you, individually, have a 1 in 9400 change of getting vaporized.
Posted by Gee Grenouille
Bogalusa
Member since Jul 2018
4742 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:26 am to
This seems like something we should be risk assessing at work offshore
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90498 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:30 am to
If someone was hit and killed by a piece could their family sue NASA?
Posted by Sao
East Texas Piney Woods
Member since Jun 2009
65617 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:34 am to
quote:

. 840,000 of our fellow humans about to take shrapnel.


Bill Burr just came
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30543 posts
Posted on 1/8/23 at 10:35 am to
Have they listed the expected re-entry and landing points? Is BR in the path?
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