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re: Morganza spillway to be opened?
Posted on 12/30/15 at 10:55 am to fightin tigers
Posted on 12/30/15 at 10:55 am to fightin tigers
quote:
Imagine it is a water table issue
Dat pore pressure. Someone paid attention in soil mechanics.
At least one meteorologist is thinks morganza will open again.
LINK
quote:
On January 20, the flood crest is expected to arrive in New Orleans, bringing the Mississippi River to its 17-foot flood stage in the city, just 3 feet below the tops of the levees. In past years, though, when the river has been forecast to rise to 17 feet in the city, the Army Corps of Engineers has opened up the Bonnet Carre Spillway in St. Charles Parish, which diverts water into Lake Pontchartrain and keeps the river from reaching flood stage in New Orleans. The Corps may also be forced to open the Morganza Floodway in Pointe Coupee Parish, which would divert water down the Atchafalaya River. Opening this spillway has a considerably higher cost than opening the Bonnet Carre Spillway, due to the large amount of agricultural lands that would be flooded below the Morganza Floodway. The Corps also has the option of increasing the flow of Mississippi River water into the Atchafalaya at the Old River Control Structure in Concordia Parish. Operating the Old River Control Structure in this way always makes me nervous, as I explained in my 2011 blog post,America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River's Old River Control Structure. The Monday afternoon forecast from the NWS River Forecast Center predicted that the Mississippi River would crest at Red River Landing, where the Old River Control Structure is located, on January 19. The predicted crest of 62.5' is just 0.9' below the all-time record crest of 63.39' set on May 18, 2011.
1
Posted on 12/30/15 at 10:57 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
The physical boundaries of the river won't change dramatically,
No one knows that for sure. All that water suddenly rushing through there. Who knows where it will go?
Posted on 12/30/15 at 10:58 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
He's not wrong- basic geometry tells you the river wants to go down the Atchafalaya. You can't change the gradient of the river no matter how many flood control structures you build there. Everything I have read is saying the Atchafalaya's gradient is just getting steeper, while the Miss. River is staying the same. If it changes it's not coming back.
I've read that in the first half of the 19th Century, the Atchafalaya at Simmesport was basically a creek. You could walk across it on a plank. Now it's several hundred yards wide there. Blame Henry Miller Shreve for breaking up the Great Red River Raft and starting this ball rolling.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:06 am to NYNolaguy1
Ah, ok. I forget the wonderful world that is soil mechanics in South LA.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:12 am to Jim Rockford
Blame the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812. Capt Shrev just cleaned up the mess.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:21 am to Martini
quote:
nd to think the Corp would drop "20,000 barges" to save it is silly.
How is that silly?
The stakes couldn't be higher.
The economies of New Orleans and Baton Rouge would be decimated and the nation would be cut off from probably trillions of dollars of critical plant infrastructure which would be a national security issue. You underestimate how important it is to the country that the Mississippi keep flowing where it flows now.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:23 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
The next 4 months will be interesting. The big crest usually doesn't hit until April or May. On the one hand, all that snow in the east that usually melts in the spring has fallen as rain and is coming down the river now instead of later. On the other, you have to watch for a continued wet winter-spring in the east, and what the snow situation in the Rockies and Plains will be like.
yeah, this is what I find interesting. Is it normal for spillways to opened in December/Jan? Seems like a really trange time to do so. I wonder how this will affect the wildlife that is dependent on normal water levels. I know birds are starting to roust.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:26 am to Cooter Davenport
quote:
quote: nd to think the Corp would drop "20,000 barges" to save it is silly.
One doesn't just come up with 20,000 barges.
At 500-600k for a new barge...
That's 10 billion dollars. Then you'd have to fill them with something. And sink them. You'd be looking at hundreds of billions of dollars.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:32 am to Martini
quote:
When the Mississippi River wants a more direct route to the gulf he will take it and no amount of man made concrete will stop it.
For a time, yes.
The ORCS will fail eventually. Then, during the following low water seasons, which could be enhanced by manipulating upstream water control structures, the avulsion would be reversed, restoring the majority of flow back to the current channel with a new control complex.
The economic loss to the US would be far, far greater than the cost to restore majority flow to current channel.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:36 am to fr33manator
quote:
One doesn't just come up with 20,000 barges.
Not to mention they would have to be gas freed and approved for artificial reef. Yeah if one of those structures fails it is game over.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:37 am to jeffsdad
The Mississippi River was hours away from busting a new course in 1972 in River Ridge when the Levee was crumbling at an unprecedented pace. New Orleanians don't have any idea how close they were 43 years ago from witnessing the entire city go underwater. Do some research on this topic. The good news is the ACOE reinforced the River Ridge area immediately after this near death experience in 73 and 74.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:44 am to diplip
If I recall right, the old river auxiliary structure was built to replace the low sill structure after it was damaged
They repaired it well enough to keep it in place, but I think they could still close it off and dam the channel up if the structure degrades any more and then they could continue to use the auxiliary structure
They repaired it well enough to keep it in place, but I think they could still close it off and dam the channel up if the structure degrades any more and then they could continue to use the auxiliary structure
Posted on 12/30/15 at 11:50 am to fightin tigers
quote:
Imagine it is a water table issue
exactly... This is the reason canals are kept at certain levels. If the canals suddenly dried up then houses around the canals would start to sink. Main reason pump stations backflow from the lake if canal levels drop.
ETA: Jindal just declared state of emergency due to rising Mississippi river.
This post was edited on 12/30/15 at 11:52 am
Posted on 12/30/15 at 12:25 pm to jlu03
And to also add to all this that there have been reports of a planned Isis attack to destroy some dams across the US..
Posted on 12/30/15 at 12:26 pm to crazyLSUstudent
I guess the trillion dollar question is this: How well is the ORCS being maintained? Do we know if there are problems? Do we know if the problems are being fixed?
If the government would have done any significant research in the years before Katrina, they would have known the levees in NOLA had some major issues and failure was imminent. However, all they did is once a year, on "levee inspection day" go stand on a couple of levees, have the media take some pictures of them, and then head out for a three martini lunch.
We have a bad problem in this country of not wanting to pay a few bucks to maintain things, only to have to pay tons more to replace things when they fail. I think it is because of the budgetary process. No one in Congress wants to approve small budget increases for maintenance, however, they are forced to approve large emergency appropriations bill when things failed, and just borrowing the money needed.
As a side topic, it's so interesting that how our culture responds to these things. One of the post showed all the cars and people watching the Bonnet Carre Spillway running open. And look, I was one of those people, I took my kids. IF they open it again, I'll take them again. It is truly a sight to behold.
If the government would have done any significant research in the years before Katrina, they would have known the levees in NOLA had some major issues and failure was imminent. However, all they did is once a year, on "levee inspection day" go stand on a couple of levees, have the media take some pictures of them, and then head out for a three martini lunch.
We have a bad problem in this country of not wanting to pay a few bucks to maintain things, only to have to pay tons more to replace things when they fail. I think it is because of the budgetary process. No one in Congress wants to approve small budget increases for maintenance, however, they are forced to approve large emergency appropriations bill when things failed, and just borrowing the money needed.
As a side topic, it's so interesting that how our culture responds to these things. One of the post showed all the cars and people watching the Bonnet Carre Spillway running open. And look, I was one of those people, I took my kids. IF they open it again, I'll take them again. It is truly a sight to behold.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 12:27 pm to Hawkeye95
quote:
I wonder how this will affect the wildlife that is dependent on normal water levels. I know birds are starting to roust.
I know they've closed deer season in the NELA parishes bordering the river.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 12:36 pm to Jim Rockford
I'm shocked that terrorists haven't tried to attack ORCS yet.
Posted on 12/30/15 at 12:37 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
This post was edited on 12/30/15 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 12/30/15 at 12:39 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
I'm shocked that terrorists haven't tried to attack ORCS yet.
They probably don't know about it. Your average US citizen doesn't know what it is and the hadjis are worse. They're not highly-educated cultured men of great learning and worldliness. They don't even use toilet paper. The stuff they tend to go after are symbolic things that are known throughout the world.
This post was edited on 12/30/15 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 12/30/15 at 12:39 pm to Voorhies7
Oh they've thought about. If it happens it's not gonna be because geauxxxtigers23 said something about it on sports message board.
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