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Started By
Message
Louisiana R(t) down to 0.91
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:33 pm
fantastic news
It isn't impossible that in a few months, Louisiana will be at very low covid spread while it rages in the northeast and new england
seasonality is a bitch
It isn't impossible that in a few months, Louisiana will be at very low covid spread while it rages in the northeast and new england
seasonality is a bitch
19
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:35 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Thank god for the mask mandates and vaccine passports.
They are such powerful interventions that they went back in time to force the virus’s reproductive rate to start falling.
Amazing stuff
They are such powerful interventions that they went back in time to force the virus’s reproductive rate to start falling.
Amazing stuff
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:38 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Months, more like a few weeks. By mid September we will be back to 400-700 cases a day. The North probably won't have as high hospitalizations though. They will be like the UK, Isreal, and Iceland. Lots of cases without lots of hospitalizations. The national news will still freak out.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:39 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Thank goodness for JBE. He’s almost scary the way he can see the trends and act to correct the mistakes to avoid a catastrophic loss of life. Just two more weeks guys. We’re in it together. It’s saving lives. Do your part.
/s/
/s/
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:39 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Orleans is 0.73
Latoya is such a brilliant leader!
Latoya is such a brilliant leader!
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:50 pm to Shaun176
I'm not so sure anymore.
UK has hit plateau. They test a shite ton so I'm curious if that is just the endemic infections society needs to realize will always be the case or what.
Their deaths haven't really gotten out of hand.
UK has hit plateau. They test a shite ton so I'm curious if that is just the endemic infections society needs to realize will always be the case or what.
Their deaths haven't really gotten out of hand.
This post was edited on 8/15/21 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:51 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Orleans is 0.73
Latoya is such a brilliant leader!
Imagine how much greater it will be when the vaccine passport thing goes into effect tomorrow.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:51 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
seasonality is a bitch
18 months is sure one heck of a sample size to call this seasonal.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 12:52 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Louisiana will be at very low covid spread while it rages in the northeast and new england
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:05 pm to Shaun176
quote:
Months, more like a few weeks. By mid September we will be back to 400-700 cases a day
In terms of what the infection rate is right now, your time frame is still a long time.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:06 pm to Cosmo
What’s crazy is JP is at .69. That’s the lowest since they started measuring back in March 2020
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:07 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:I’m betting the areas that had a big wave in March 2020, and a big winter wave in Dec/Jan will probably not see a big wave of cases this time. There should be lots of prior infection immunity to stifle this surge for those areas.
Louisiana will be at very low covid spread while it rages in the northeast and New England
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:09 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:What are tomorrow’s hospitalization numbers looking like?
Cymry
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:27 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
It's good news but it won't show up in the numbers for some time. In Mississippi, Rt was below 1 when each surge hit its peak.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:30 pm to prplhze2000
quote:
It's good news but it won't show up in the numbers for some time. In Mississippi, Rt was below 1 when each surge hit its peak.
The Rt peaking will always precede the cases. That's the nature of the math
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:31 pm to Pendulum
well duh.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:32 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
seasonality is a bitch
Seasons do not cherry pick the states they affect.
People behaviors are a bitch.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:38 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
There should be lots of prior infection immunity to stifle this surge for those areas
meanwhile in reality, NYC just had highest number of cases ever yesterday for this wave
This post was edited on 8/15/21 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:45 pm to prplhze2000
quote:It won’t show up in hospitalization numbers for some time.
It's good news but it won't show up in the numbers for some time. In Mississippi, Rt was below 1 when each surge hit its peak
R(t) is a leading indicator for cases.
Springfield, MO, which was the earliest surge for delta in the US, peaked on July 12 - that was the exact day that it’s R(t) fell to 1.0. The peak was 213 infections per 100k, and they are now at 57 infections per 100k, closing in on it’s presurge levels. Hospitalizations peak trailed by about 2 weeks.
Posted on 8/15/21 at 1:51 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
It won’t show up in hospitalization numbers for some time
Except it's already showing up in hospitalizations.
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