re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

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All the posters that were cheering on a winter storm a few days ago, you got your wish. Bastards.

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LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Thursday Night/ Long term period begins with arctic airmass firmly established across the region with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 20s. Southwest flow aloft to prevail allowing for warmer temperatures above the surface based cold airmass. This will become problematic as an upper-trough taps into moisture across the region Sunday into Sunday night, leading up to a potentially significant winter weather event on Monday. In terms of precipitation types through Monday, the line separating a primary sn/ip (snow/sleet) mix from an ip/zr (sleet/freezing rain) mix will mainly extend from deep east Texas to northeast Louisiana with areas north of the line leaning more toward a sn/ip mix and areas to the south experiencing an ip/zr mix. This of course is a very generalized approximation, with some deviations expected through time. Driving conditions will be treacherous in areas where freezing rain and sleet occur. On Monday, however, precipitations ramp up significantly as upper- trough swings east across the region and arctic airmass deepens. Precip types to change over to snow across much of the region with the exception of a sn/ip mix across the se third of the CWA. Winter precip to exit the region Monday night into Tuesday leaving a substantial snowpack in its wake, 4-6 inches deep, across portions of southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas with lesser amounts elsewhere. Temperatures to plummet into the into the lower teens on Monday night with high temperatures on Tuesday to barely break above freezing. Mainly dry conditions to continue into Tuesday night with overnight lows forecast to fall into the mid 20s. Otherwise, an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico to advect moisture north across a firmly established arctic airmass Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring another chance of freezing precipitation across the region both days.

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DickkV will be in here soon to berate and attack GEAUXmedic and Gumbo Titties

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DISCUSSION...A very complicated pattern to remain in place
through late next week with multiple rounds of winter weather
expected in the region.

A strong cold front has moved into the gulf over the past day with
an Arctic air mass spilling in. Moderate rain with embedded
thunderstorms is currently moving east across the lower
Atchafalaya Basin in response to a short wave aloft. Overrunning
continues behind the main area of convection as yet another short
wave is approaching from West Texas and drizzle and moderate
showers have developed. Cold air advection is still ongoing as
the front slowly sinks south and temperatures have fallen to near
freezing from the Toledo Bend through Central Louisiana. Vernon,
Rapides, and Avoyelles Parishes are teetering on a winter weather
adv and this may be needed soon. Will continue to watch temps as
they fall slightly toward sunrise.

Through the weekend a series of short waves will traverse the
region. Temperatures will fall to around freezing across interior
southeast Texas and Central Louisiana and perhaps down to around
Hwy 190. This may produce brief periods of freezing rain Saturday
and Sunday mornings.

The strongest short wave will move across the region Monday. A
frontal wave will develop in the gulf and move into or near SE LA
by afternoon with rain spreading across the local area while a
reinforcing shot of cold air moves in behind the frontal wave. As
rain increases wet bulbing can be expected and freezing rain will
likely develop over a large portion of the area. A warm layer
several thousand feet up only begins to slowly work out from west
to east by the end of the event leaving the best chance for snow
in interior SE TX late in the day. While not impossible to see a
few flakes to the south and east it will remain more unlikely.

Precip clears the region Tuesday only to return Wednesday and
Thursday with another short wave. With only a slight moderation in
temps having occurred, another round of freezing rain may be
possible north of Hwy 190 both mornings.

MARINE...Strong north winds will be ongoing today and an SCA is
in effect. A moderate to strong offshore flow will remain in place
through the end of next week as multiple reinforcing fronts move
through.

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