re: Louisiana Ice Storm Thread *Winter Storm Warning*

quote:

---

7:30 P.M. UPDATE: Cleco has been notified by the regional reliability coordinator, Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), that extremely cold temperatures are causing an increase in demand for power which is resulting in an overload of the power grid.

To help protect the stability of the power grid and prevent prolonged outages, MISO has instructed Cleco to reduce demand on the power grid by beginning periodic outages to customers across Louisiana.

While our crews worked to prepare for this storm, a loss of generation combined with the peak load due to record-low temperatures have caused a strain on the power grid system. In an effort to prevent damage or lengthy power outages, Cleco was instructed by MISO to begin forced power outages.

Depending on conditions, individual customers could experience multiple outages each lasting less than an hour until we receive notification from MISO that this is no longer necessary to protect the electric grid system.

We appreciate our customers’ patience and understanding during this unusual time.

---

quote:

---

Major water main breaks, pump stations offline, nasty stuff in the water.

---

quote:

---

ETA: It is as warm as it’s been in 2 days... why are we getting rolling blackouts now??

---

quote:

---

They apparently just started in Ascension.

---

quote:

---

Edited to add that in addition to the parishes listed earlier, Beauregard Parish has been added to the winter storm warning.

As of now, I just don’t see much reason to change my morning forecast. I could tweak it ever so slightly, but the general theme remains the same. The main takeaway is that for the northern 2/3 of the area, this will be a significant ice storm. Like ice on the trees and elevated surfaces, not a brick on the ground like the last one. It’ll add a layer of slickness to that, but it won’t pile up as easily. So power outages will become a problem. Some models are showing over 2 inches of rain in areas that will stay near, or below freezing. The silver lining is, heavy rain can’t all become ice. Some will just roll off the power lines and onto the ground. So if an area sees 2 inches of rain, and they see heavy rain for a few hours, they may *only* see 3/4-1 inch of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces. It’s not an instant process of freezing where every drop just freezes when it lands, especially when most areas will see the heaviest freezing rain fall when we are 28-32 degrees. If it were 24-27, that could be a different story. Regardless, this will be significant. Here’s a copy and paste of the morning parish by parish forecast.

Rapides… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Vernon… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Avoyelles… Mostly freezing rain in the northwest half of the parish, freezing rain could change to very cold rain in areas like Simmesport and Cottonport. Total ice accumulation 1/8-1/2 inch. Power outages possible, especially in the northwest part of the parish.
Grant… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Sabine… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Natchitoches… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Winn… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Lasalle… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Caldwell… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Catahoula… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Concordia…. Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Tensas… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Beauregard… Freezing rain likely changing to rain in the afternoon. Especially in southern, and southeastern parts of the parish. Total ice accumulation 1/8 to 1/2 inch, with highest totals in the northwest part of the parish. Power outages possible, especially in the northwestern part of the parish.
Allen… Freezing rain early changing to rain. Trace to 1/4” likely, scattered power outages possible in the northern part of the parish.
Evangeline….Freezing rain early changing to rain. Trace to 1/4” likely, scattered power outages possible in the northern part of the parish.
St. Landry… Mostly rain, but freezing rain possible early in the event in the northern part of the parish. Up to 1/8 inch of ice possible before it changes to rain in the northern part of the parish. I don’t expect major power outage issues in St. Landry Parish.

The prime time for activity starts after 2:00 AM along the Texas border, with light precipitation reaching Alexandria and Pineville around 4:00-5:00 AM. It should move out by late afternoon or early evening. Roads are already hot garbage, so don’t try traveling if possible. Yes, they were passable in many areas today, but we are back in the mid 20s, and the sun stopped working its magic. If my deck is any indication, travel would be quite treacherous. No, I didn’t fall, yet. The best case models show areas south of a Leesville to Alexandria to Jonesville line warming up to just above freezing in the afternoon. I’d say 70-80% of ensembles and short range models keep us at our below 32 for the whole event. The thing is, even the best case should lay down 1/4 inch or more of freezing rain for most of Rapides parish. That alone could cause power outages. So prepare for power outages. Let’s all step back and think about the insane weather we’ve seen in the last 15 months. Tornadoes, hurricanes, and a few winter storms. All plural. I love a good extreme event, but I’m kind of stoked to sit on my back porch and not stare at the next update of weather models after this. At least for a few days. But the realist in me is like, yeah, severe weather season is starting, so we shall see.

---

quote:

---

Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
Edited to add that in addition to the parishes listed earlier, Beauregard Parish has been added to the winter storm warning.
As of now, I just don’t see much reason to change my morning forecast. I could tweak it ever so slightly, but the general theme remains the same. The main takeaway is that for the northern 2/3 of the area, this will be a significant ice storm. Like ice on the trees and elevated surfaces, not a brick on the ground like the last one. It’ll add a layer of slickness to that, but it won’t pile up as easily. So power outages will become a problem. Some models are showing over 2 inches of rain in areas that will stay near, or below freezing. The silver lining is, heavy rain can’t all become ice. Some will just roll off the power lines and onto the ground. So if an area sees 2 inches of rain, and they see heavy rain for a few hours, they may *only* see 3/4-1 inch of ice accumulation on elevated surfaces. It’s not an instant process of freezing where every drop just freezes when it lands, especially when most areas will see the heaviest freezing rain fall when we are 28-32 degrees. If it were 24-27, that could be a different story. Regardless, this will be significant. Here’s a copy and paste of the morning parish by parish forecast.
Rapides… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Vernon… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Avoyelles… Mostly freezing rain in the northwest half of the parish, freezing rain could change to very cold rain in areas like Simmesport and Cottonport. Total ice accumulation 1/8-1/2 inch. Power outages possible, especially in the northwest part of the parish.
Grant… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Sabine… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Natchitoches… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Winn… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Lasalle… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Caldwell… Mostly freezing rain, maybe a little sleet. Total ice accumulation 1/2-1 inch. Power outages likely.
Catahoula… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Concordia…. Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Tensas… Mostly freezing rain. Total ice accumulation 1/4-3/4 inch. Power outages likely.
Beauregard… Freezing rain likely changing to rain in the afternoon. Especially in southern, and southeastern parts of the parish. Total ice accumulation 1/8 to 1/2 inch, with highest totals in the northwest part of the parish. Power outages possible, especially in the northwestern part of the parish.
Allen… Freezing rain early changing to rain. Trace to 1/4” likely, scattered power outages possible in the northern part of the parish.
Evangeline….Freezing rain early changing to rain. Trace to 1/4” likely, scattered power outages possible in the northern part of the parish.
St. Landry… Mostly rain, but freezing rain possible early in the event in the northern part of the parish. Up to 1/8 inch of ice possible before it changes to rain in the northern part of the parish. I don’t expect major power outage issues in St. Landry Parish.
The prime time for activity starts after 2:00 AM along the Texas border, with light precipitation reaching Alexandria and Pineville around 4:00-5:00 AM. It should move out by late afternoon or early evening. Roads are already hot garbage, so don’t try traveling if possible. Yes, they were passable in many areas today, but we are back in the mid 20s, and the sun stopped working its magic. If my deck is any indication, travel would be quite treacherous. No, I didn’t fall, yet. The best case models show areas south of a Leesville to Alexandria to Jonesville line warming up to just above freezing in the afternoon. I’d say 70-80% of ensembles and short range models keep us at our below 32 for the whole event. The thing is, even the best case should lay down 1/4 inch or more of freezing rain for most of Rapides parish. That alone could cause power outages. So prepare for power outages. Let’s all step back and think about the insane weather we’ve seen in the last 15 months. Tornadoes, hurricanes, and a few winter storms. All plural. I love a good extreme event, but I’m kind of stoked to sit on my back porch and not stare at the next update of weather models after this. At least for a few days. But the realist in me is like, yeah, severe weather season is starting, so we shall see.

---